Gregmal

The media couldn't hide a "demand list". Monday seemed to be the bottom. Tuesday people started realizing it. Today we rally. Coincidence. Couple the demand list with the repeated logic that NATO/US/EU repeatedly, over the past decade kept pushing Ukraine even though Russia has warned it was viewed as a national security risk(something a few folks here nailed) and the likely ultimate result of a destroying and/or conquered Ukraine(either accomplishes the 3 demands) and there you have it. Nothing that should be dragging down the majority of US equities. Energy prices will be temporarily relieved thanks to the good guys running democracies in Venezuela and Iran. Funny how it all works right?

I think if you're still trying to form a picture on this you missed the move. But what do I know?

How bout some Venezuelan oilers? I chuckle at the logic being used; of destroying the Russian people and economy to punish a guy with 3 different billion dollar mansions and small city sized bunkers... by enriching dictators in Iran and Venezuela, all while we have oodles of oil and gas.....right here at home! Yes, people voted for that.

Just remember, a week ago we were on the verge of a nuclear war and Putin was going to recreate the USSR.... People, this is why markets can behave irrationally LOL Now. Going forward, who are we going to listen to? The people who bring us one sided, agenda driven stories, the people who brought us the "polls" for 2016, 2018, and 2020, the people who have scandal and lawsuit one after another over the accuracy of their reporting and the disclosure of their conflicts.....or..... Often times game theory is the easiest exercise and you only need half a brain to apply it.

Man, someone called it. Brandons War creates higher energy prices and now its the result of corporate greed so of course we need to have Pocahontas or Bernie introduce a windfall tax.....my god these clowns are predictable.

Exactly. Once everyone has their propaganda, er, media narratives where they need them to be, it'll be over. Mondays shocking yet not shocking at all news about Putins demands basically tipped the hand as far as my investing approach and signaled what I suspected anyway. Media drove this to a crazy circus that had even totally unrelatedly shit like MSGS(LOL) selling off. When really it was much ado about nothing and soon VIX should retreat sub 30, energy speculation will cool off a bit, and folks will go back to worrying that 4-5% mortgage rates will kill the economy.

~10% OTM and a month or less til expiration. With VIX over 30 you're getting paid extremely well and if you get put the shares the valuations are still favorable.

Shorted some OTM puts on OXY and XOM

Lol sounds about right. Xi playing chess while Brandon begs. Yup.

Actually, yes. Thanks

What would people peg as the odds, say we were running a bookie operation, that ANYTHING neutral or sharing the Russian POV here can be found in a MSM piece? Not saying I support them, but if I was looking for an unbiased way to see both sides of this thing, anyone think I could get it in the good old US of A?

Cashed in a chunk of energy related options.

Musk is a national treasure

Adds to the bag holder portfolio. Z and RBLX

Exactly, that’s been the US angle all along. $150 oil cuz war is better than $90 oil cuz of our stupidity. Here’s hoping American voters are as dumb about this as they were about COVID.

Yea. If I can read that $4 gas won't cause folks too much pain, so will the politicians. So of course, like the scum they are, they'll push the envelope until there is real pain, and some of us will get fed a plate of food we didnt ask for courtesy of the 51%. So yea, probably still some room to go higher. Even short term.

Yea just like the 4-5% mortgage rate killing housing is BS, the consumer IMO is not going to be bothered much by $4 oil. But there is a tipping point. Then the roller coaster starts moving the other way. The key with all these types of trades is to grab and reallocate as much as you can. You dont have to call the top you just have to walk away with a satisfactory reward for your time. Which often means holding portions past the peak. So Im just spitballing the gauge. For instance, XLE ATM calls are 7x from less than a year ago. Shit like that. The problem is that outside of stuff Im already pretty overweight, Im not seeing too much suitable on the replacement side.

So do folks think with a Russia ban US oil should be $130? im all for the thesis and think it’s got legs…it did at the beginning of the year before Russia was even a story. But did this pull a bunch forward, alpha wise, from the oil spike thesis in a good way, a bad way, or neither?

So last week or maybe the one prior there was talk about the stupidity of banning Russia oil and it’s effects on gas prices at home. It was said Russia is only a small amount of the supply and so it wouldn’t matter. How does this parse with the price movements in anticipation of the ban and even price movements on the ban?

I think Bill is right that China comes out of this looking very good. But otherwise, yea, he's got another short bet and sometime in the future gonna boast about turning another $100 into $2B or something. Thats all I am reading in his war cries. Like alright dude, we know how you do this.

Absolutely. 100% the media is scum of the earth. An enemy just like Putin except they effect more Americans than he does. If that isn’t evident even in the last few month with what’s come out of the Palin defamation case, Russia/Clinton fabrications, CNN problems, etc….don’t know what to tell you. What’s happening in Ukraine is tragic, but again another instance of the US meddling in foreign affairs and then just shrugging when their actions cause harm to others.

MICHAEL BURRY Did you find it odd that when the tech bubble burst in 2001 the housing market in San Jose, the tech center of the world, went up? Yup. Gonna happen again. I sometimes, obsessively, look for reasons to be concerned about having concentration in housing. Haven't found a valid argument yet, not even close. Its always the same old dumb stuff about rates and new supply. Think we get round two of the phenomena Burry talked about in Big Short re:tech bubble and housing. Gonna be fun.

Also thought this was utterly hilarious. Nevertheless they will still have some ratings when the next wave is published.

So the demands are much more rational and more or less consistent with what should have been respected to begin with than the media and twitterers have portrayed? I’m shocked!

More virtue signaling. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/nj-gov-phil-murphy-mulls-state-action-on-russia-linked-lukoil-gas-stations.html still “mulling it” even though he acknowledges the businesses are operated by NJ residents. But it’s cool. Phil worked at Goldman so he s got money. Fuck the peasants filling up at those stations or the people working the pumps.