Gregmal

You should start a newsletter lol. I bet Tilson “the Prophet” could use a new marketing angle at Stansburry Research. “The Wizard of North Carolina”!

Gene is a genius. He’s been all in on tech euphoria since like 2012. He used to just be an analyst at some mid tier and he’s parlayed his hyper bullishness into his own firm lol. He doesn’t know very much, his analysis is poor, but he’s got the mantra and delivery down pat.

Has there ever been a market forecast that you haven’t thought was super bearish? You’ve been saying the same thing for years under The Big Guy too.

Haha all good, no worries. It’s the internet and context always gets misconstrued. I have tried to back off these issues because 1) they’re often pointless and 2) I don’t care nearly as much as it seems in terms of the effort I put in sometimes. I mainly hope to understand the different perspectives driving politics today because it seems so many things other than politics and policy have become what actually gathers votes, which is interesting to me,

Im just trying to get to the root of what youre debating. Are you saying someone who believes in some of the things mentioned above(low taxes, minimal government, responsible immigration) shouldn't vote for Trump? Are you saying to only pay attention to labels validated by the establishment, ie felon, convicted, or even "your honor"? Im fine explaining how I tend to arrive at things, but sometimes, especially with certain topics it seems like its never ending explanations that dont ultimately indicate there was a valid purpose to the question being asked. Almost a never ending deposition...such thats why I ask, ok if you dont like a candidate, where is your cut off, what are your parameters for drawing that cutoff line, and how to you square that with then helping or siding with people who are running on things diametrically opposed to you? Liz Cheney, I get it, she and her family have been huge beneficiaries of the current political establishment, and hates Trump for the threat he poses to it. Kamala is her kind. Dubya is her kind. The status quo is her kind. But the average voter? Probably not aligned with Ms Cheney.

This was the gist of identity politics. The democrats started by using the media to smear people, when it didnt work, their smears became more and more aggressive. It worked brilliantly at first. Obama literally ended Mitt Romneys campaign by calling him a racist out of touch billionaire, even though there was absolutely no basis for it. Which as Trump proved too resilient for that, they just kept going. Which is how we end up at some claim as preposterous as "Trump is Hitler"....

Like whats the gist thats being implied? We shoulda voted for Kamala because we think she's a nicer person than Trump? And that later if it came out she wasnt, well, whoa is me I was just ignorant its not my fault? Well, maybe, but a lotta people just ate that humble pie with Biden...and realized they had someone with dementia who could barely function hidden from them, and well, the last 3+ years speak for themselves. If nothing else, a lotta people learned the media is full of liars, huge spending from donors skews the picture you have, and most of it is manipulative rubbish. Many people just saw that just because the media screams "Trump is HIlter", doesnt make it true. And when it isnt true, no one is there to compensate them for the problems the alternative created for them.

I vote for policies that I believe have the best chance of positively impacting my life. I believe in low taxes, small government, and effective policing to keep people safe. I dont care about the individual names on the ticket because largely theyre 95% a mirage that results from manipulative propaganda, media alliances, and wasteful spending. You're asking this question as if Trump has murdered people...meanwhile, there is actually some evidence to suggest previous presidents and politicians have...but what? because they dont have the "convicted felon" tag...theyre all good? Essentially, as long as you are not aware of everyones baggage...theyre clear? Not for me.

I think the bar doesnt matter for public office because in order to get to that high a level of politics you need to be a pretty big scumbag...or super wealthy, which typically entails the same ethical compromises. Romney or Bloomberg perhaps the exceptions. So when we talk Clinton or Bush or Biden....it just comes down to how well they hide it and how well their allies manipulate perception. Joe Biden has a half dozen mansions despite being a public servant his entire career...square that? Theres overwhelming evidence he engaged in pay for play. But because he's not "labelled" a convicted felon"...I just hold him in higher regard? Not me.

I would feel the same if the timeline was the same. Trump had no issues when he was friends with the Clintons and high society NY Democrats. Go back to Comedy Centrals Roast of Donald Trump...the whole audience is his liberal friends, even big time haters like Chrissy Teigen and John Legend. I feel the same is true with Hunter Biden. He was protected because he was part of the elite...and then when he became expendable...around the time the party started souring on Joe, the mad rush to prosecute and convict him was almost entirely politically driven. Law and order is important, but most of this resembles the crap we detest in Iran and Russia.

I 100% agree, that if he werent running, it wouldnt have occurred. So to me...labelling him "convicted" or "a felon" as a result of something clearly politically motivated, eliminates any importance in the label to me as its simply an attempt to manipulate the voter. If Trump were convicted in 1997....that would have impact to me. The second we start letting the puppet masters influence us with such blatant theatrics....we're done. On the later....no what I mean is you look at NYC, or the most glaring example...the DC voting district, which I didnt even check this election, but say in 2020, DC voted for Biden at like a 91% clip. Manhattan was like 85%+ if not higher for Biden. This is no way shape or form, especially in the light of the political dynamic....represents giving someone a fair trial by a jury of their peers.....its a circus court in a hostile territory occupied by your enemies, look at the populous, look at the elected officials, look at the appointed judges. Heck one of the judges in the Trump case didnt even know, or pretended not to know the difference between an appraisal value of a property and a tax assessed value. It was staggering. If you wanted to relocate the trial, which is a fairly common occurrence in many cases, in order to assure a fair trial....then maybe it has more merit. But conducting sham trials, under these pretenses, and then using the "label" which is the result of such, as an attempt to manipulate people come voting time....GTFOH.

Yup, not only do we have recordings and admissions from people within the prosecutors office stating that no one in the country besides Trump would've had these charges brought against them, but you also have concrete evidence, via voting results, that confirm Trump certainly didnt get a fair trials amongst his "peers"...

Well, lotta of this needs to be acknowledged as moot for the simple reason that EVERYTHING benefits the 1%. Good times the like grows, bad times you get amazing bargains that then supercharge future growth. At some point some sort of reset is required, which will require a non capitalist approach.

The Trump trade was what I posted last fall….you coulda bought FNMAS for $2 and just played house money into the election. At $9 now? Who cares? It ain’t a Trump trade anymore, you’re banking solely on a specific outcome now. The only way to have made money on those over the last decade is to buy em when nobody is talking about them and sell them when they are.

Pappy is making an appearance tonight. God bless.

Yea pools are just too tough. I have a 20x40 inground; its a constant expense. I can get a quote for the same here in NJ for $60-80k. Meanwhile in Florida a 12x24 POS Hamptons style pool 3 ft deep is pushing $90-125k...Lotta different things at play.

I’m the furthest thing from an accountant but from what I’ve seen the issues often are a result of forms from the disposition or assets. The K1s stopped years ago. Not sure about the UBTI

Geez it’s like every time we have a 1-2% drop the same old stuff starts up again

LOL this is why I often just give up on having the insurance debate with people. Every year we have one of these "everyones an expert" subjects come up. In 2020 they were all medical experts, 2021 virologists, 2022 inflation experts, 2023 economists/banking reserve experts, 2024 I guess they're insurance experts. Always fade the hysteria.

I think a large part of the problem is that many of these people just never invested because no matter what they always think stocks are expensive. So when you’ve missed the last 1/3/5/10 years, it’s hard to get involved now knowing you messed up previously, and thus like a lot of underperforming money managers, it’s so much easier to put out this arrogant facade of “I didn’t miss anything, I’m just smarter than everyone else and know the market is going to crash” spiel. When I hear that stuff, like with Einhorn, you know their returns suck and it’s just excuse making.

Thank goodness they come out and state this. I’d feel weird if for the first time in a decade, that we didn’t get the annual “stocks are expensive and future returns will be low” spiel from someone.

He s a whiny broken record. Who never learns.

Given the timeframe really anything over say $13 should be wonderful. Think it’s ultimately a good bit higher than that.

Im not too concerned as theres no real operations, just the last two properties in Long Island.

Rights offering to ensure proper liquidity to see thru remaining litigation.