Gregmal

Got a few Jan 2022 42.5s for ~$1.2. If I get put the shares it's "good enough". The biz is inflation resistant and basically a royalty/call option on prosperity/wage increases for the poor people.

Grabbed a little more JOE, shorted some MO puts, and laughed a little at AMZN and AAPL.

Honorable mention...RICK

I always like checking out the Starbucks indicator. 1) Does the town/area HAVE a Starbucks. 2) How busy is the store. 3) What kind of cars are typically on line at the drive through? Those will tell you pretty much everything you need to know.

Tangentially my father grew up in various parts of NJ and PA. Settled most of his childhood in Ridgewood/Ho Ho Kus area. Similar to what Eric described, in this area, in the 60/70s...its was fields and open land. Yes, Ridgewood and especially Ho Ho Kus, and even myself, I recall Mahwah NJ being barren in the 90s. Todays its packed and its all expensive suburban homes and a lot of big mansions. Saddle River too, especially so. So having left the area and moved to Tampa a decade ago, my parents are asking me to assist them in finding ANYTHING on a lake with some land with an open mind to pretty much ANYTHING in NJ/NY/PA...and guess what Ive noticed? Basically ANYTHING with a good parcel, waterfront, is now $500k+...even remote stuff in upstate NY or Nowheresville, PA. Crazy.

Trimmed some MSFT, bought some APTS April 2022 $10 calls, added some VIX November $25 calls.

You guys got the gist. Position sizing is everything. No one should be risking more than 5% of their capital on a single idea until they really know what theyre doing. Whereas while you are figuring things out, you can risk 1-2% positions all day long and really its not going to move the needle much either way. If what you are doing is really, really, off base, well...a half sensible investor will get tired of burning their hands on there stove and fix the bad behavior or the flaw in their process. Thats valuable and part of learning. The only way you go broke with sub 5% positions is if you continuously do really dumb shit. Which is way different than just having a few trades go against you. One is part of the game, and the other is the antithesis of it.

But yo, like, he liked tanker stocks that went down and I THINK.....HIS STRATEGY...is risky. These are lifetime returns for some folks LOL.

Some of the best advice I have taken personally, and also heard so many people swear by, is to really reach on your first home. If you're of average or better intellect with corresponding job prospects...go to that point where you're internally like "ehhhh I could do it but eh...its gonna be close/tight"....If you're under 40, and especially 30...pull the trigger. 5-10 years from now you'll either need a bigger house anyway, or if you bought the right one, be totally in the drivers seat, and with a huge equity cushion even if prices go nowhere. And in either event, if you're half successful on your career path, what was a lot of money to you then, at 25 or 35, most definitely shouldn't be a lot of money to you 10 years later in your life/career.

These are great sort of trades. High leverage ways to cover your ass if the music stops. In a certain sense its funny because folks think this is a bad idea because if the music doesnt stop you will certainly lose money. Even if it kinda stops, you can lose money. The most likely outcome is in fact a write-off. And this is true. But how many of those same folks have home insurance? I bet you none of them look at their annual renewal notice and say to themselves "terrible trade John. Just lost 100%. If such as such happens that policy premium is another write off! Doh' and now they want 20% more money for the same contract as last year!?!"...

Thanks my man. No problem. Love helping folks out and when Im not annoying them with politics hopefully allowing them to see investing is not that hard you just have to rejigger the framework sometimes and that you dont need a financial professional in order to take care of yourself. Tangentially, folks too often become infatuated with specific companies, names, tickers, etc. The only thing that matters is the money you stand to make or lose. So for the above, the most likely scenario is you get $50 against a ~$500 stock for a couple years tie up. I'd actually probably move up a year to the 2023 $350s and just take the $35. Then you can either hit it again as those get closer or roll down again for another year. SAM is kinda a quirky stock...its really good value if you get put under $400 and pretty poor value over $500(just my opinion), and either way you know there's buyout upside solely because the big boys are shitty allocators and will pay up for good brands and shelf space, both of which SAM has.

https://nypost.com/2021/10/25/our-brave-new-progressive-world-from-a-to-woke/

The "shit" end of the tech stuff and covid beneficiaries has definitely caught a bit of a bid. It formed a bottom and now seems perky. Interestingly enough, exactly in line with the confidence termites thesis, the quality big tech for the most part is just gyrating around a range. I closed many of my shit tech shorts but have also been pairing down long exposure. The long value, short tech trade put on in Q4/Q1 worked wonderfully, but I am not sure how much juice is left in it. Rather just take shots here and there on highly asymmetric inflation trades and catalyst driven discount to NAV stuff. So thats what I'm doing.

Eh I mean I post pretty transparently, regularly, everyone here knows it....even just mid last week posted $50k purchase of CLPR calls that are already up 40% in a few days and for me its just like .....eh, cool. Stocks and their derivatives move around. Its just how things work. Any given day you could probably find a few things doing well. And then Mr Housing Historian after his hiatus comes rushing back in to post and boast about how no one understands 300 year housing patterns or MEME stocks and he's a self proclaimed bossman cuz his TSLA and MRNA are up today......LOLOL

Huh? LOL You said people buy REITS because they dont get to see price fluctuations and dont want to see mark to market! My goodness! What are you 16? Go away and wait a few more days for your stocks to fluctuate and then come back and boast about having stocks that went up, just like everyone else who's long in a bull market...If you're capable of providing anything of value, go start a thread as @thepupil suggested. Or answer @KJP's question as he alluded to(you dodged it), or, IDK post your performance? Or IDK, go hang on Stocktwits or something. Doesnt bother me either way. Good for some comedy though.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3756853-twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-wanrs-of-hyperinflation

This is always an interesting mental exercise when I see small businesses go up for sale. $240k for a taco and hot dog shop….why? What do they do? No land? What’s the incremental cost for this or that….why is the brand worth anything(most times it’s not)…end of the day generally my rule of thumb, profitable or not, is what are the assets worth. Add a discount and then adequate return to compensate for my time. ALCO is a good case study. Nothing exciting about the biz buts it’s healthy and profitable. Huge underlying asset. Place that into perspective of both your time, your money, and your current opportunity set. As you would expect, the attractiveness varies greatly. Conversely I do a semi reasonable number of private deals and your data is limited and the businesses largely unprofitable. My ideal info sets have to do with what’s the growth look like for the entire space. Where does this company stand in terms of having a moat or first mover advantage, and who’s bankrolling it. Just did a deal for shares in a company Emulate. Trading 10x revs and by 2025 the entire TAM will be roughly where the CURRENT EV is. But it’s a tech leader in a rapidly growing and disruptive space with some big financial backers. All I can lose is my investment. I have plenty of multiples of upside even if I’m not entirely right. So I’ll roll the dice.

The end game is coming into focus now. Today’s remarks make that clear.

Why not hit the $350s? You'd take in over $50 a share.

Most REITs trade publicly and have daily prices the same as any of your meme stocks.

LOL @thepupil nailed it. One of the benefits of the internet is there's different ways to generate conversations and elicit the yin and yang that ultimately proves helpful. Throwing a lot of mud at the wall in the NYC revival thread and then @BG2008 posts a beautiful rebuttal on CLPR. Thats shit working. Sometimes it goes off the rails. Other times someone just says something so stupid I dont know how to respond and then bolsters it with "I bought Tesla at $5 a share" or something even dumber. At this point its probably lost it purpose. Threads done here as far as I'm concerned. Time and the good ole P/L will tell who's right. And I dont think you're a wimp pupil. I'd just lever you 3:1!

So now the argument has basically devolved into “yea the land is valuable and actually, well, if you eliminate all the desired areas the rest is nothing special”! So I guess just avoid investing in heartland Oklahoma guys and buy meme stocks! We’re certainly getting our $30 CAD subscription costs worth today… Oh man….

Nah man. 3 things. Inflation, TSLA, and MNRA. Book it. Withstands the rest of time. 100% of the time.

Cathy Wood has some Kool-Aid for you. Stay thirsty my friend!