Gregmal

Yea not to mention that none of these guys are transparent at all about how they even made their money to begin with. Most of them were given money from mom and dad or made it doing sleazy shit and really if you never once had to worry about the basic shit 95% of normal folks do, “managing money” is easy. IMO how and when folks get their first mil or two changes everything. The Einhorns of the world who graduated Ivy League and then were given a half mil to play with didn’t earn shit and never had to deal with real adversity. Can’t imagine life was too tough for the Klarmans of the world either.

Yup. Klarman is another clown. “I’m smarter than everyone else and my underperformance is better and more sophisticated than your outperformance so don’t question me and don’t you dare publish my letters”…LOL

Used to own it. Total shame what happened to the company. Literally nothing from the clown report turned out accurate but reputational damage here was massive. Basically pure smash and grab as Cohodes calls it.

Careful. You’ll get kicked off Twitter for talking like that

Pretty much would be my answer. First set the table with family and friends for one final blowout….then go balls to the wall long on margin with options that won’t ever get settled at the very last minute. It’s either all over and nothing you did matters or if not, you make a fortune.

After a long stalk and starter in 40s, pulled the trigger on some CPNG calls

Always thought an interesting question to ask folks was what they’d do investment wise if an asteroid was reported to be headed towards earth with almost certain probability of impact.

Bunch more PSTH. Billy tends to make noise in waves. Good placeholder til more interesting opportunity arrives

@Xerxes this style or type of market fear behavior is normal and what hinders people who can’t find a way to overcome it. Whenever real fears are rationally dismantled, I almost always expect to hear “well what about this”….with “this” being some super low, multiple standard deviation type catastrophic event. To which I’m like “ok, we’ll this cycle of worry never ends…do I spend my time repeatedly entertaining stupid what ifs….or do I just go put my time to work making investments”.

Powell says “quite a bit of room to raise rates”… Gregmal: checks rates… hmmmm, from 0? Sounds mathematically accurate. Goes back to being amazed at grown men and sophisticated investors being petrified of 25-50 bps hikes….

It’s even simpler than that. Look at the long term stock market chart. Pick your timeframe. 10/20/50/100 years? No difference Second, every event that the perma bears point to as being something you should be scared of? Is a generational buying opportunity.

Thanks for the clarification. Dont watch much tv. Just heard he was talking again and its like, how many times do we need to hear what this guy is peddling? Him and Faber have been doing their thing since I started investing.

So now Grantham is on TV talking about how things are going to be even more severe than he thought…last week! Some of these guys are such scammers. The more attention you give them the more they seek. Don’t know how anyone can take him seriously. What a fool.

Waiting for a 90 year old dude to die is like waiting for the market to crash, the illusion of it happening tomorrow is real, and then however many years later you realize you wasted your time. Or then it does happen and you’re still paying more than if you had just bought on day one. When Jobs died Apple was down 4-5%. So not much. And at this stage of the game I’d argue Jobs was way more important to Apple than Buffett is to Berkshire in todays form.

So for sure I’ve been one of the biggest inflation is happening mouth pieces for the last 5 quarters or so, but really, isn’t 90% of this really just self inflicted? Housing IMO is different. Low end restaurant and warehouse labor is different. But the end of the day, on the consumer good side, it’s really just a result of there being shortages everywhere. Why is this so terrifying to people? It’s easily solvable. Now I don’t think this gets fixed overnight. Instead of fixing the ports or allowing more oil to be drilled this administration basically just wants to sit around and talk COVID all day. Instead of sending messages on the supply chain, they’re wasting time sending people freakin testing kits LOL…but I don’t get why there’s so much concern. This isn’t an insurmountable problem. The last few polls show 80% of Americans view inflation as their largest concern…when will Snorlax get the message and stop obsessing over a cold? I definitely would have figured heading into mid terms there would be more focus on solving this. IMO once you see these measures we may start seeing deflation. Just something I’m keeping an eye on.

Haha yea IDK lately Ive struggled with the whole thing. As an investor, who cares about volume, which is a stupid trading technical. Valuation matters right? Nonetheless between PCYO and GEOS its like, yea, I'd pay above market so as long as theyre there......then theres YSACW which is just kinda like, OK the SPAC isnt in any sense of the definition a standard SPAC deal. Its really going to come down to execution, with guys who know how to execute. 60c for 5 years on the warrants? Why not. Bidding against yourself? Who cares if the price is right, right?

Your post actually got me thinking a little bit, and maybe a tad embarrassing, I swear I literally never look at or worry about the indexes, but damn, DOW 30 looks pretty awesome in terms of broad diversity to best in class stuff.

Yea it’s an utter beast on the balance sheet side and you have a stupid margin of safety on declines to really back up the truck. Per my convos with Mark I have the utmost confidence that what irks us, ie the “come on already” shouts from the bleachers as far as land acquisitions and buybacks go, is also what protects us. Guy is 1000% committed to being well capitalized and not making mistakes.

At these prices it will be soon. Been a top 5 but took some off mid teens as there’s a clear catalyst gap from phase 1- phase 2. Now we re getting into the heart of phase 2, oil and gas pickup means fracking revenue could blow up, and this transitions real nicely into the commercial phase which is where all the dollars start pouring in. Still early if you’re trying to time the move, but I think at these prices I’m cool with holding dead money for a couple quarters. Just wish the options were more liquid. I’d be shorting 10/12.5 puts all day here.

Finally got off some good slugs of PCYO last two days. 30% of daily volume be damned

Tilson is a breathing embodiment of high finance/WS. Go to Ivy League school. Make friends. Gets rich selling his connections and other bs. One of the worst investors Ive ever seen. Basically copied Bill Ackman when Ackman was crushing it and still managed to blow up his fund. Then taught courses on how to short for $2500 a pop when shorting was one of the primary reasons his fund sucked. Then started a newsletter LOL

No silly questions. Because there isnt really a right answer. I didnt invest through 1987 and 1999 but I immersed myself in material related to those events. Dig up newspapers that give you real time sentiment. Shit like that. BRK letters are good. If you can conceptualize events and then put them in context, you will be ahead of the game. For certain styles, unfortunately, you really just have to be in the market. You'll never know how truly terrible it is to be in a short squeeze if you've never been short over the weekend and some great news gets released. Shit like that. Overtime, you get that experience by being in a lot of different positions and seeing how they end up playing out. Psychology is one of the most underrated aspects of investing. Markets and cycles are always heavily driven by psychology. On position sizing, its personal. But if you are young and capable, you can almost never go too big. Up til maybe your mid 30s. By then you need to have something put in the bank. But my biggest regrets were being in my mid 20s and doing it the proper textbook way. Where I diversified and put less than 10% into a big winner by the name of GOOG. Of course, years later simply by earning, the GOOG position and all its success wasn't really relevant. Could I have risked 3-4x that? Absolutely. Even if it went down 50% 3-4x the allocation at that point in my life wouldnt be a big deal. So position sizing, assumptions matter. But project a position against your net worth 5-10 years out and ask if youre really making a worthwhile investment. Further on that. If you have a 6 figure portfolio in your 30s, but make 6 figures annually, again, a 10% loss can easily be replaced. Whereas if you have $5M and you're 50 and never plan on working again, you're going to go the @Viking route and try to preserve your wealth rather than grow it aggressively. Once you have what you need to live on your own terms, more isnt really more, at least not all the time. The other side of that, IMO, is that once you have what you need, you can have fun with anything over that. The @ERICOPOLY route I guess we can call it. So theres really different strokes for different folks. If you enjoy investing then theres added benefit. My only real advice is if you're doing it, know yourself, and immerse yourself in it. Ask questions(like you did) theres lots of people here you can learn from. I learn lots from folks all the time, sometimes they probably dont even realize it. 1) stick to quality. 2) size yourself properly. 3) realize where you are in your life and where you want to go. Money is just a means to an end.

TBH I probably agree with you more than I let on with some regards. I wouldnt even fully say that everything I throw out there is held in high conviction. Most of it is, but sometimes simply smashing ideas together, especially with other thoughtful people, helps form a useful Frankenstein. These sort of places are great because you see enough of everything.

Managing your buying power(cash, liquidity, etc, whatever you want to call it) and sizing your positions properly are IMO two of the most important things. If you get those right, you can make a lot of mistakes and live to tell about it. Theres lot of people who get 4/5 right and the 1 wrong kills them. And then theres people who get 9/10 right but if its too small it doesnt matter. Balance and evolve. The right answer today isnt always the right answer tomorrow(or even an hour from now).

Man look at all you fundamental investors patting yourselves on the back over day trading gains! Just kidding. But important to remember sometimes volatility and investing are related and sometimes they’re not. 80% of what I saw selling off in the morning was total nonsense. End of the day it turned out to be just that. If it hadn’t, would you feel any different?