Gregmal

Everyone has said that when a giant experiment is conducted you are in unchartered territory. Over the last few years, from COVID to GameStop to negative oil, we ve seen things never before seen or probably thought possible. What you see going on in certain asset classes right now is following a specific pattern. The pattern is obvious. You just don’t know what you’re going to see that will shock the shit out of you. Which is why it’s a great idea to be chasing those tails. What happens if the futures market gets overrun with speculators the same way GME call options overwhelmed the financial world? $200 crude calls? Speculators breed more speculators. Position yourself as you sit fit, and then sit back and wait to see some shit you’ve never seen before.

Brain starting to really go into ludicrous mode here because all this shit is creating a lot of moving parts but whoa is me it seems everyone has forgotten about the Fed raising rates. Or they don’t care anymore. 10 year treasury has come back big. Are we in a scenario where safe haven treasuries overpower Fed speak and action? If so, mortgage rates are tied to one, not the other. Commodity price insanity is only….making houses WAY more expensive. Rents have to follow. Both have no supply. Which puts further cement roadblocks in the home builder pipelines and stunts their building ambitions. I’d imagine we aren’t too far off from federal government floating gas subsidies for lower and middle class. While hard to fathom, could this all be still the early innings of what is to come? All I know is if I owned real estate, specifically residential(which I do) no way in hell I’m selling any time soon.

Moving on from being offensive to being on the offensive….gold gonna blast through $2000 this week. 10x leverage is fun. Had the wife make some Poutine tonight, will chase it with some Beluga. Long love French fries and vodka. is there a scenario where gold does poorly? Not in my magic magic 8 ball.

It’s a yes and no thing. Some companies rely on capital markets more than others. Correct that no company has even failed who didn’t have some responsibility themselves. But also true that people manipulating the capital markets can be a death blow for a company already in trouble. Real world example. You have a mortgage broker. Lives like one. Spends more than he makes. High on the hog. Life’s good. But he s a little behind on his taxes and relies on next paycheck to fund his past months extravagances. Ex girlfriend Sally goes on Facebook and says he’s abusive(subjective) and his employer cans him. He then loses everything because of the lost income stream. His fault, kinda. Not his fault? Kinda. Life? Yup.

Printing $125. What’s hilarious is the end catalyst was unclear but if you know the game it was evident. Brandon and friends were fucked. Cancelling drilling permits and closing pipelines to virtue signal was already creating a disastrous message in the markets. It’s why in one year things went from 55-90. But you know how the politics game is played. They needed an excuse. Someone to blame. And damn well they tell us they care and will fix it but you KNOW they rather have oil at $150 and a war to blame than have it at $90 with no one to blame. Thankfully, the American people are largely short term and stupid. They blamed Trump for a virus and war be damned, democrats are going to pay BIG this November unless this gets reeled in ASAP. Except, supply and demand. No way oil trades back down to $70/80s ANYTIME soon. RIP

I haven’t totally been keeping tabs on the car situation. But dropping my car off for basic service tonight after a long trip. And it’s like woah. This lot is typically packed with new cars. Packed. Now? Half a row is all the new car inventory. What the fuck is going on? It’s completely empty minus a half row of new and a bunch of shitty old trade ins maybe numbering two dozen.

Agree. If you have trouble sourcing ideas or are one of the “cash” crowd members….I’d totally say it’s worth the $3k a year or whatever for KEDM. Amazing and extensive set of unique data for idea generation. Much of which is market neutral. Have also noticed the adjectives tending to change postmortem LOL but whatever. What do I care? I just like hearing unique ideas. No one determines my position sizing but me, so whatever he s doing or not doing isn’t something I care about.

That’s the thing I think gives away people who get it and people who don’t. Everyone misses. The purpose IMO of investing is maximizing the risk to reward ratio. When you look for certain setups, sometimes the best ways to do it involve risks. If you can lose 100% but can make multiples, that’s what you want if you’re any good at identifying them. People who focus on “he got that one wrong” are doing the equivalent of walking up to a blackjack table, seeing one hand, seeing a guy lose, and exclaiming “he just lost everything”….technically true, 100% loss on the one hand…duh, that’s how the game gets played, but really not accurate in the grand scheme of things and really just revealing ignorance on the part of the observer.

Timely bumpity, bump, bump. All you had to do was be open minded. Listen, read, connect dots. Question the current narrative peddlers. Easy peasy. In fact, all you had to do to make boatloads of money on this was NOT sit around peculiarly wondering about what a fund manager thought about vaccines, or whether or not he's ever had a losing trade LOL. And even there, chances are YOU were wrong again. Market constantly teaches us lessons. Be humble, internalize them, and make money on the next opportunity.

Overall a great message to this documentary. The best defense against all the shit is to educate yourself. Be open minded. follow the money. And pretty much anyone can do it you just have to cleanse yourself of the framework that the system puts in place. Been saying it for ages, it’s no coincidence NONE of this shit gets taught in high school and what gets taught for $40k a year in college classes, MBA programs, etc, is a total waste of time and money.

Nah. Buy a $7-10 bottle of Popov or Travellers or a $20 bottle of Smirnoff and a $35 bottle of regular Beluga. Or $100 for the Beluga Gold. It’s not even close.

Agree. The car title analogy was great too. So many people, even financial professionals, fail to be even remotely aware of the “plumbing” of the system. Then they wonder why their fundamental research may be right but still ain’t making them any money. “Backstage at Wall Street you better know what’s going on” yup. Yet there’s people who willfully ignore the “non fundamental” stuff. And pay dearly for it

That’s the thing. It wasn’t directed at you and I am unsure why you decided it was. It was largely in jest referring to folks in Canada making a stink about French fry names and in general, the larger issue, widespread, fully embraced xenophobia. But anyway, move on. Thread is what are you buying today and I bought some Russian vodka to hedge the possibility that the US bans vodka that happens to be from Russia. Good lord.

Everyone talks about the repeats of things from ww2 and all that. Hitler and nazis and then communism. You know what no one talks about? How horrifically Asians in America were treated during that timeframe. History of course is written by the winners. And as they say, if you don’t learn from the past….most don’t even know about it! Yet here we go again from our ivory towers and gated communities.

That’s what a lot of people miss in the equation. It’s not just supply and demand in a traditional sense, it’s money flow and speculation. That’s where you get the alpha. Trade of the week next week is probably shorting weekly OTM puts on stuff like OXY. Premiums should be glorious

Unless you’re one of the French fry with gravy name changing virtue signaling advocates I am not sure why you’d take offense to anything I said…..the criticism is equally spread, including amongst a very large faction of red states here in the US(which are the ones leading the charge with the ban anything Russia rhetoric) The degree to which the world is going off the rails is pretty remarkable. Whether it’s outright war, or just horrendously misplaced priorities….like gee let’s bait a foreign country with democracy, then abandon them, and then cut off resources so our citizens see 30% price increases at the pump inside of a whole week….my gosh. Geez, some people just love having reasons to be offended. You can literally call me any name of your choice; I would fully allow you to think of the worst, most offensive names….it doesn’t bother me, at all. Grow some skin. I know many of the folks on these boards outside of these boards. We re good. No one forced anyone to do anything or like/dislike anyone.

They’re still making a stink about French fries…while in the US…. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmith/2022/03/01/10-states-have-banned-russian-vodka-a-symbolic-gesture-with-little-economic-punch/amp/ Fascism is indeed thriving. People have been getting fired for….being Russian. Private citizens are having their assets seized or frozen and it’s not as though they donated to some peacefully protesting truckers. Shit has gone absolutely off the rails lately. Everywhere.

Hedging. After all, there’s dumb fuck Canadians banning French fries with gravy because if you pronounce poutine wrong it sounds like Putin. And some US govs ordering vodka to be thrown out. The woke stupidity knows no bounds.

Its not about taste, the better quality stuff is like drinking silky water. Typically I agree though. Have two vodkas in the house. Platinum which is $15 handle stuff for mixed drinks and whatnot. Theres virtually no difference between that and the other bottles on the shelf. And then Beluga which IMO is in a league of its own.

Just look for established big name industry leaders and then stagger ATM and OTM leaps. If you still don’t trust yourself look for ETFs. Oil is easy but there’s plenty else on the periodic table you can apply this too. Even XLE you could get leaps on last year for $2-5. Those already 5-10 bagged.

Beluga Gold

Those are the ingredients for a super cycle. Real estate did the same thing during COVID. Some of the safest and most desirable assets briefly became viewed as the most undesirable. Everyone got washed out, which then makes everyone a future incremental buyer. Wouldn’t be shocked if XOM is a trillion dollar market cap company in a few years.

This is starting to play out exactly as expected. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809776-united-american-airlines-may-need-to-consider-potential-equity-raises-with-oil-prices

Exactly. I was having a discussion the other day with some folks about this. Putin is very much like Trump where his ego leads him to constantly and compulsively "call and raise". He doesnt have a winning hand here and the only real way out, peacefully is for someone to recognize this. Not keep calling his bluff because that will end badly.

I use it when it can be applied. I dont when trying to do so will just give me a false sense of understanding and arrogance. Imagine what its like not to be able to afford groceries. I can put myself in those shoes. Imagine being black and gay and living in Saudi Arabia. I cant do that. Being honest with yourself and your limitations is crucial to anything. Saying I could do the later would be arrogant and disrespectful to the people really in that situation.