maxthetrade

All this macro stuff is way too hard for me. Just look at Japan, I'd never had guessed that they can do what they have done without serious consequences. I'd have lost my shirt if I had bet on what I thought would happen. So much easier to buy cheap companies unless you are Wabuffo. The one macro bet I really nailed is betting against the EUR, perhaps I'm biased because I see all the crap happening here but I think the eurozone is doomed, a complete dysfunctinal disaster.

Added to FFH, bought KMX and wrote some BRK puts.

Belgium and France, agree with Spek, Belgium is really nice! Omaha Beach My niece really likes Crepes ;-)

They guy is a complete idiot. Voters will get what they deserve.

In 2000 I finished university and made my first million (back then in DEM!). After a couple of years with performance in the twenties I made a bit over 100% in 2000, my best year ever so far. A bit cocksure I decided to retire early . The next few years weren't pleasant because of USD devaluation. Going into the great recession I was too optimistic and bought too early in 08. Had to sell some stock in early 09 to prevent a margin call. It was a good lessen though. I switched to LEAPS and that worked out pretty well. Since then I invested more conservatively, you don't have to risk what you need for what you don't need. All in all it has worked out pretty satisfactory and I plan to move to a tax heaven with better weather somtime during the next couple of years. Germany today is not the country I grew up in, it sucks. The generation of woke idiots has arrived and is ruining the country. Fortunately there are still some decent alternatives.

Cyber coverage is one area that really makes me nervous, especially at Allied World. I don't think this risk can be modeled. At least they have a 25mm cap.

Geez, I hoped they were done buying crappy businesses.

Fascinating article about a teenager hacker: https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/crypto-heist-teenage-hacker-ellis-pinsky-1367400/

The World's Fastest Indian is a great, very underappreciated movie. I highly recommend it if you haven't seen it.

I couldn't agree more with this: "There is a malaise in the West currently, where ideological goals are pursued at the expense of the lower middle and working classes. Whether it's truckers in Canada, farmers in the Netherlands, oil and gas companies in the United States, ideology, not science or hard evidence, is dominating the agenda, gratifying the elites while immiserating the working class. Ultimately, there is a risk that climate policies will do to Europe what Marxism did to Latin America. A continent with all the conditions for widespread prosperity and a healthy environment will impoverish and ruin itself for ideological reasons. In the end, both the people and the climate will be worse off."

Michlin's indestructible tires look pretty, interesting. That would finally be a real innovation in the tire industry. https://www.fastcompany.com/90359254/michelins-ingenious-new-tires-ensure-youll-never-get-a-flat-again

Lagarde is a politician, she will do whatever it takes to save the Euro. The southern countries including France need low rates. My guess is that she will try to do exactly what you described. If the pressure from the nothern countries becomes too much she may increase rates and buy bonds of the southern countries.

In 2000 BRK traded down to about BV. Most recent BV was $230, so it's not there yet but certainly on the cheaper side.

It's indeed amazing. One has to wonder whether there are other hidden gems.

Thanks!

I'm curious, what did you do with this position?

And you can buy it soon premixed in a can! https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/jack-and-coke-in-a-can-coca-cola-and-brown-forman-team-up-for-new-drink.html Seriously, I don't have any doubts that alcohol is way worse for your health than sugar, alcohol is a known carcinogen.

Can get it for €60 over here, will definitely give it a try!

A good friend of mine is a Bourbon fan, so I bought him a bottle of Blantons for his 50th birthday two years ago, I paid ~100 €. Today the best offer I could find is at €148.

Just had a Sherry 'Tradición Pedro Ximénez »V.O.S. 20 Años' for the first time. Very sweet with subtle notes of Walnut and dried fruits. Excellent with cheese, deserts or poured over walnut icecream.

Don't know if that was a macro bet, interest rates were so low that the opportunity cost of sitting on a pile of cash was pretty low and the risk of losses from owning bonds pretty high. Hard to tell how much money they'll make from this, depends on how high interest rates go and when they decide to move. At this price it's just gravy, the downside is pretty well protected and upside will take care of itself. BTW, the transcript of the call is now availble on SA: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505284-fairfax-financial-holdings-limiteds-frfhf-ceo-prem-watsa-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call

Exactly! You guys really think that the US would risk total nuclear war to protect some east European country? No way. The key player is China, the've probably told Putin that they don't care about Ukraine but that nukes are off limit if Russia wants their support.

I agree, hard to see how Europe can avoid a recession. My heating gas bill went from 1.6k to 6.8k/year. I was able to drop it to 4.9k by switching my gas provider which most people here don't do. Electricity bill doubled to 1.6k. Filling the tank costs 25% more. Cost of groceries is up by 10-20%, e.g. I used to pay €15 for 1kg of red shrimp, now 20€. Only japanese Wagyu and french artisane cheese aren't more expensive, probably because they were ridiculously expensive already P.S. if things get crazy later this year, e.g. rationing of gas etc. I may move for some time to a nice place in the south or the US. Most people can't of course.

ad 1. very possible ad 2. I doubt it

What do you consider a 'normal size position'? I'm still way overweight @ 25%. In some smaller accounts up to a 50% weighting. Some things I've done recently: selling KMX and MMM naked puts,. Selling ATCO calls and buying common shares yesterday.