maxthetrade

I don't think so if the reason is explained well and backed by actions, e.g. a tender offer. But I get it you guys really like the divi. Let's leave it at that.

Well there is a physioligical aspect as well, buybacks signal that mangement believes shares are undervalued and increase IV/share. For me as an investor it makes a difference how long it takes until shares trade at fair value. There is a huge diffrence whether I can get a 50% gain in a year or two. Let's be clear, I like my position in FFH (my seond biggest), results were decent and I liked what I heard on the call but that doesn't mean there is no room for improvement. If I were running the business I would try to get rid of the crappy cyclicals at high valuations, suspend the diividend and buy back a shitload of shares at at a deep disount to IV. My personal pet peeves (after they promised to stop shorting) are BB and the dividend. But I can live with that because the stock is cheap enough. Why mess with crappy businesses if you can buy things like DLTR (my third biggest position), KMX or BRK etc. cheaply? BTW, I really like ATCO, it's clyclical but well managed.

Yep I pay 28% tax on dividends and would prefer not to. I like Berkley's approach with special dividends better. But you're right it's a minor thing.

Increasing the dividend at this point would be crazy. While I understand the reason for the dividend I wish they would at least suspend it for a year considering how cheap the stock is. They could even pay a special dividend later when the stock price isn't that attractive.

No but I think good underwriting results are necessary for the stock to trade at a premium to book.

Sure, you can back out cat losses to get some analytical insight into the business but in the end you have to add a normalized cat loss estimate. If they can't write business significantly below 100 including normalized cat losses the business is a dud. Considering their past record I'm also bit worried about the growth at Brit.

It's certainly reinsurance-specific. Mrkel is probably not a good comparison , quite frankly I'm not sure that reinsurance is within Markels circle of competence yet. I hope they keep it small until they've figured it out. I think it's kinda ridiculous to strip out cats because that's part of the business, they happen every couple of years. And Ida was FAR from a real mega cat. Can't say it any better than Rob Berkley on the recent conference call: "In addition to that, again, as it once again crystallized in the third quarter when we think about underwriting activities and we think about volatility as a component of risk. Clearly, the industry is feeling the challenges that come along with cat activity. From our perspective, cat activity is there on a regular basis and why people choose to back it out on a regular basis doesn't make a whole lot of sense to us. Our view is that volatility is real. It is a real component of risk. When we think about running the business, it is of great priority to us and how we think about deploying capital. So I'm going to pause there but before I do, I guess one last comment. I know that there are a lot of people that will look at our numbers and Rich will walk you through it and you'll do the math and you'll come up with an ex-cat accident year loss ratio and what does that mean? It is on a combined ratio, and that'll probably get you to approximately an 86.9%. But from our perspective, if one chooses to slip off the rose-colored glasses for a moment, we generated a 90.4%. That is reality from our perspective. But in spite of the cat and the impact, we did achieve a very healthy underwriting result and in the process, we achieved a 16.6% return on equity."

I had expected bad results from Brit but I'm kinda dissapointed by Odyssey Re. On the other hand Allied results look pretty good and better than I expected. FFH still looks too cheap.

This whole crypto thing reminds me of the dot com bubble. Just have a look at Axie Infinity, it's a tulip bubble and easy to predict that it will end badly but almost impossible to know when. Depending on how big this crypto shit becomes there is a chance to become a serious systematic risk.

WRB had another exceptional q, net premiums written increased 23.7%, CR 90.4% including cat losses... From the press release: "Overall rate increases remained robust in nearly all lines of business, and we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future. We see expanding opportunities to write business at attractive underwriting margins, given the strong commercial property and casualty pricing environment. The increasing focus that distribution partners and clients are placing on stable markets with balance sheet strength and expertise, particularly in specialty and E&S lines, is also contributing to growth." Always worth listening to the call!

Nothing that I'm aware of. I've heard some things but nothing I would bet money on. Actually I added to my FFH position today at 508.10. The stock is cheap and if management doesn't blow it completely (i.e. fails to sell the cyclicals at very advantagous prices) we'll all make a very decent profit on this trade.

Okay you asked for it, Brit screwed up royally on their european catastrophe business. I know some people who were very surprised by their exposure to the german flooding.

Have you watched 'Succession'

I agree, especially with regards to his daughter. I would have prefrerred Tom Russo over Mr. Davis.

I dunno, I've made a lot more on WRB than FFH. I really like the rational approach at WRB to expanding the business vs. buybacks vs. dividends. That said at current prices I don't own any WRB and I added 500 @ 508.10 FFH today. If I get the chance to swap FFH @ 1.2BV for WRB @1.2-1.4BV I'd do it in a splitsecond. Personally I'd prefer to skip the dividend and do some serious repurchases at these prices, much more tax efficient.

A really good portugese red with a plate of by far the best cheese in the world from Maitre Affineur Antony. Say what you want about the French but they know how to make great cheese!!

My vote goes to Ryan Jacob. Does anyone remember the Jacob Internet Fund? After stellar performance in 98 and 99 he launched is own fund which lost ~95% from 2000 to 2002.

No question, BRK is pretty cheap again on P/BV, I have real time BV at $217, P/BV at 1.3. Short term pretty oversold, good time to add if you haven't as much exposure as you want.

Perhaps that's the reason why he is a billionaire and you're not Just kidding, but I find this monday morning quaterbacking a bit annoying.

Well, at least I agree with him that crypto will be worthless at some point. A limited supply of nothing captures it pretty well!

Guys I recommend a X3, I bought a 2019 10 month old X3M40i and this car is fun and not that expensive! Plenty of space if my nephew and my nieces visit me or if my parents are visiting. Acceleration is on par with the 335i I owned previously! Build quaility is superb. A friend of mine bought a Tesla X and there are worlds between! I wouldn't swap if he pays me 50k...

Well, I don't think they'll buy back the shares. First they have to pay taxes on the TRS gains and why would they do a buyback if at the time they choose to close the TRS their shares are fairly valued or even overvalued? It would be better to invest in something that is undervalued.

It's out: https://s1.q4cdn.com/579586326/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/Letter-to-Shareholders-2020-(Final).pdf

I don't care for predictable but it has to be profitable in the end! There simply was too much gambling in the past. Even in 08 they were very lucky with respect to timing!

Don't forget that any gains from the TRS are taxable, so it's not as efficient as a buy back but it was the best thing they could do considering their cash position.