rkbabang

Anything is possible, but if you look at the things Satashi was writing on Bitcoin-talk right from the beginning he knew what he had created and how valuable it was going to become. To think that he'd be so careless to lose his private keys would be unimaginable. Can you imagine discovering a trillion dollar gold deposit and in your attempt to keep it secret forget where it was?

It could be. I've always assumed Finney, because he is dead and that explains why Satashi disappeared so completely and has never touched his holdings. I just can't imagine a living Satashi overcoming the temptation to access that wealth and take credit for his invention. If it is Szabo he is an amazing human being.

How to tell whether a conspiracy theory is likely false? 1) It depends on a government agency being competent and able to hide their activities with supernatural skill without a single actual participant telling anyone anything. Yes. This is why this was a somewhat believable theory early on, but every year that has gone by makes it less and less likely to be true. I personally think the story of Bitcoin is a simple one. Hal Finney (or someone else) created it under a pseudonym for some reason and unfortunately died a few years later.

As opposed to Buffet and Munger?

A good article on Milei, what he’s up against and can likely accomplish. Written by Bryan Caplan a libertarian-leaning economics professor at George Mason University. https://betonit.substack.com/p/will-milei-make-argentina-great-again

satashi/bitcoin being a project of the CIA has always been a theory right from the beginning. I don’t think so, Satashi’s writings were way too libertarian-like/cryptopunk, but that could certainly be faked. The Onion Router/deepweb was created by US intelligence so it is certainly possible Bitcoin was too. The government can be short sighted and do things against its long term interests for short term goals.

I’d bet you, but I’ll be in my 70s 20 years from now, that’s too long a time frame for a bet. I just think you underestimate how quickly change can happen.

I just read through this thread and this is the best post by far. So much will change in the next 30 years it’s almost unimaginable. 30 years ago almost no one had internet access for example. I had it in 1993 only because I was an engineering student and I had to go sit at a Unix work station in the computer lab in the EE department building to access it. There was a short list of all the websites in the world. Almost no one had cellphones yet. Calling “long distance” on a landline was still an expensive undertaking. Society will change, tech, the world. There are almost no companies in existence right now which will not go through multiple management changes over the next 30 years. There is no company I can think of that I’d buy if I absolutely couldn’t sell it for 3 decades. If I had to pick some, it would be utilities, pipelines, shipping, JOE and other real estate companies. But I wouldn’t feel comfortable doing it. An index is the way to go for a long term passive portfolio.

BTC doesn’t rely on the U.S. breaking up, BTC doesn’t need the U.S. at all. I was simply stating a fact that there is not a snowball’s chance in Hell that the U.S. both still exists and has 50 states 15-20 years from now. I keep a close eye on the NHexit movement and it is growing year by year. Even non-political people I talk to often don’t say it’s crazy anymore. Bills are introduced every year now and get more support and less fierce opposition every year. Don’t get me wrong it isn’t going to pass this year, but eventually it will and eventually it will be put on the ballot state wide. Here’s the testimony from a few weeks ago at the committee hearing for this year’s bill. A bunch of people testified for it, one against. The Texit movement has some momentum too and there are rumblings in other states as well.

Does anyone really think that the U.S. is going to outlast our lifetime in its current form? When TX then NH then others exit the union there will be places in North America where you can live and you can use BTC without capital gains taxes.

I have to admit I've never gotten the expensive watch thing. I've always worn a $50-$75 watch and they have always told good time, lasted for years, and looked fine. Now I have an Apple Watch and it tells time and does some other stuff too which is why I'm willing to spend more than I ever have for a watch before. But even though I consider them expensive, I can buy a New Apple watch every 5 years for the rest of my life and not spend what people spend on these other watches that do nothing but tell time. People have tried to explain this to me before, but I don't think I'll ever get it.

I just saw this great tweet on that topic. "MATH"? “Give a man a fish and he’ll eat for a day. Cut a fish into a quadrillion pieces and he’ll eat for a quadrillion days.”

I work from home most of the time (3-4 days per week) and my house feels just about right at a little over 3K sqft/4bd/3.5bath I had 2 kids (both in their 20s now, but they were teens when we moved here) and it was perfect. Now with only 1 of my adult kids still living at home it is still a good size for 3 adults. We use my daughters old room as a home gym and the 4th bedroom as guest room. We have 2 living rooms, an office, dining room, kitchen. Basement is unfinished if we needed more space, but we don't.

So true. Once the wife gets involved, everything needs a theme, needs to match, and every room needs to be "set up". That's when the real fun and expenses begin. Who says men & women are the same! Absolutely. The best purchase I made was my lakehouse because we bought it completely furnished. We bought the house with everything in it (furniture, decorations, dishes, pans, silverware, cups/glasses/ cookware, ... everything). Of course we eventually replaced a lot of it, but all the bedroom furniture is still the same and a few pieces in the rest of the house we kept too. The great part was not having to buy everything all at once. We were able to use the house as is and replace/upgrade things a little at a time over a number of years. There was no need to make a ton of large purchases right after buying it, no uhauls or moving in. It was great.

My first reaction to that is "wow, awesome" then I remember how I thought my 4000sqft home was more than I needed. There were rooms we didn't even use. I don't know what I'd do with that big a house. I would like an indoor swimming pool though.

My houses have been: 1) 1100 sqft on 2 acres bought when I was 24 2) 2600 sqft on 1.5 acres 3) 4000 sqft on 3.5 acres (Some woods but almost all grass) with a 5000 sqft barn and 3 other outbuildings, built in 1768 plus an addition and barn in the 1850s and needed a lot of work, only owned it 4 years. 4) 3100 sqft on 1.8 acres (mostly woods/small yard) (my current house) 5) 1300 sqft (current 2nd home/lakehouse) on 3 acres (mostly woods with small yard) with a 1600sqft detached garage. I thought my first 2 houses were too small, but my 3rd house was bigger than we needed and around 3 acres of grass to cut it was too much work. I think ~3000 sqft is the sweet spot. 1300 sqft isn't bad for a vacation home, because you are only there for a week or 2 at a time and you don't need everything you own there. You don't need as much closet space and there are a ton of things you can do without for a week (The small kitchen doesn't have an espresso machine or a KitchenAid mixer, etc...).

Some of those are making millions doing it The percentage of people who play video games all day that make millions doing it is quite small.

I voted no, but that could be just wishful thinking. I really don't know. How can anyone in the west really know what China will do?

Totally….we were excited hearing that Topgolf was looking to open near us in NJ a few years ago. In 2022 some stuff actually got approved at the local level in Parsippany. However after some updates it was stated that “there is no set opening date although they are hoping for 2026”….4-5 fuckin years lol. Then St Joe decided they want to do one and it gets approved in Dec 23 and will be open spring of 2025….some of these cities and regions are total jokes. 12 years to build a Target. 2-5 years to build a Topgolf. With 1930's technology the Empire State Building was built in a year. The US used to be able to build shit. "Construction started: March 17, 1930 Opened: April 11, 1931"

I like the idea of an operating company using profits & stock to buy Bitcoin. And I like Saylor. Saylor's taken a deep dive into Bitcoin and is as knowledgeable and enthusiastic about it as anyone I've seen. I know he's going to acquire as much of it as he can, hold it and never sell. I already own a significant portion of my net worth in BTC directly, so I like to put some in MSTR as a levered bet. And, I'm not a fan of the large financial institutions (Blackrock, et al) and think they have too much control as it is. They've done a lot of damage to the world with their ESG/DEI nonsense. The reason I don't own any index funds is that I don't like giving companies like that my money.

I added a little today. I think the decline is because Saylor is exercising stock options and the FUD is "Saylor is SELLING!!!!!!!!!". The guy has a $1 salary for the last 10 years, owns > 20% of the company, and people panic when he wants to exercise some options.

I'm still holding most of the Bitcoin I bought 10 years ago. I know people who have been holding longer than me. How is BTC not compatible with a buy-and-hold philosophy? Idiots.

That's one of those "It's funny because it's true" jokes. Although it's a bit of an exaggeration at each end. The average boomer isn't worth $5M and the average millennial is worth more than $5k.

Yes, and once its monetary premium is diminished gold will be priced mostly for its utility in industry, much like what gold did to silver.

I own it directly so I won't be buying an ETF in my taxable accounts. And I own MSTR in my 401K, so I won't be buying an ETF in my non-taxable accounts. I do think the ETF will make it easier for the average investor and/or institutional investors to think about buying it. They don't have to learn anything new, just make a trade the way they usually do to gain exposure.