rkbabang

Seconded. Also, I don't know why the guy in this thread way above got so pissy and started freeking out, but I basically agreed with his first post. BRK has not really knocked it out of the park in a long time. I've always held some since around 2002 or so, but the last 10 years or so I haven't had a large position. I bought Apple in 2014 (a large position) and held it until I sold most of it last year about where it's still trading now. Sure BRK holds AAPL too, but I don't think you can look at this chart and think: I should have just stuck with BRK. And I don't think this chart even included dividends for AAPL, I had dividend re-investment enabled on my account the entire time I owned it.

I hear you. If you notice above I posted here at like 4AM Eastern (my time zone). If I get up anytime during the night now I grab my phone and check bitcoin, and since I'm up check this board and a few other things. The last time I did this was 2020-2021 and ~2017. I think I'm just not going to sleep much on halving years.

My parents asked me this question a little more than a year ago when BTC was under $20K. I told them they should and they did. They are in their early 70s.

That's the idea. I'm hoping to survive a lot of inflation.

I went through the same exercise to figure out position sizing across all my accounts as of today. Crypto went from 20.9% of net worth on Jan 8th to 22.9% today. And Microstrategy went from a 5.7% stock position on Jan 8th to 6.7% today. So if you pull Microstrategy out of stocks and add it to crypto (6.7% of 47%) + 22.9%, Crypto is about 26% of my net worth today.

This was from the beginning of the year. Crypto (which is mostly BTC) was over 20% of net worth. And it’s more now as stocks and real estate hasn’t increased as much. And Microstrategy represented almost 6% of my stock portfolio and that too is more now as that has been my best performing stock so far in 2024.

Great posts by @Dave86ch and @Castanza above. The bottom line is that no one can "value" bitcoin over the next 5 or even 10 years. If your looking for precisely what will bitcoin trade for in USD in 2030, no one can answer that question. Bitcoin solves so many problems as it becomes the base layer for which every thing else is valued upon. Not to mention the other problems it solves that Dave86ch mentioned about preserving long-term data and a whole new theory of warfare (see "Softwar"). The answer to how valuable is it is "very". I don't know if BTC trades at $1M or $500M 15 years from now, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't somewhere in-between. Right now: 1 BTC = 1 BTC $1 = 0.000191 BTC Someday: 1 BTC = 1 BTC $1 = 0.00000001 BTC Also add to the books listed above: " Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better" by Lyn Alden

I think brands like S&W, Glock, Ruger, SIG, etc. will always command a premium over cheaper built guns. Firearms are a dangerous product. You are literally lighting an explosive powder on fire in your hands. Companies who have a long tradition of making safe, reliable, long lasting firearms will be more trusted over the cheaply priced newcomers. Most gun guys have many firearms in their collection and are willing to pay up for quality. Most new inexperienced gun owners will be drawn to brands who's names they recognize. Their will always be the people who buy the cheapest because that's all they can afford, and there will always be the hobbyists who buy expensive boutique custom guns or build them themselves (something that is getting much easier to do by the year). But for the average gun owner an extra $100-$300 for a quality name brand firearm isn't going to bother them.

I love when you see "predicted the last 3 market crashes" or something like that when people describe themselves. Of course they will predict the next 3 market crashes too. If you're always bearish 100% of the time you will have predicted all of the market downturns.

I know. Nothing I said relies on me not knowing who said what to whom.

Sorry, but "it didn't take a genius to create bitcoin" is one of the most clueless statements I've heard in a long time. Calling that out is not arrogance. Someone needs to look in the mirror before calling others arrogant, I think.

Oh do shut up wachtwoord. Arrogance overload. Saying "it didn't take a genius to come up with Bitcoin" isn't arrogant, but pointing out that it is a clueless statement is. From the guy who thinks online gamblers invented it. Sometimes this thread is just too much. LOL

That’s not a fact, that’s a prediction. I’d take the opposite side of that bet And…. Today.

That is true. I would much prefer wealth without fame to even more wealth but with fame.

That has the sound of an urban legend to it, but who knows? Anything's possible. After all people send small amounts of bitcoin to the genesis address almost everyday. ( https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/addresses/btc/1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa ) and about a month ago someone sent it more than $1M worth. ( https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/transactions/btc/d7db4f96a4059c8906b953677ce533493d7b9da0f854a21b99f5772910dd0a31 ). People do intentionally burn their bitcoin sometimes.

Thanks for reminding me of this book. I'd been meaning to read this since I watched her presentation to the NH Nuclear Study Commission a year ago. She gave a good presentation about the difference between the "physical grid" (how the grid actually works) vs the "policy grid" (how politicians/bureaucrats wish it worked/lie to themselves about how it works). Video and slides here: https://nuclearnh.energy/event/regular-meeting-dec-12-2022/

I guess I just want to know what time it is. And now that I have a smart watch I want to know who's calling or messaging me without needing to take out my phone. I never really thought of them in any other way. My Dad was way to poor to afford a good watch, so I never had the family heirloom sort of thing. I've always tended to buy a $50 watch and wear it everyday even to work around the house or yard. When it gets scratched up too badly (5 years or so) I buy another one. Now I like the Apple watch with an aftermarket case on it. I scratch those cases all to hell, then replace the case while the watch is fine.

Anything is possible, but if you look at the things Satashi was writing on Bitcoin-talk right from the beginning he knew what he had created and how valuable it was going to become. To think that he'd be so careless to lose his private keys would be unimaginable. Can you imagine discovering a trillion dollar gold deposit and in your attempt to keep it secret forget where it was?

It could be. I've always assumed Finney, because he is dead and that explains why Satashi disappeared so completely and has never touched his holdings. I just can't imagine a living Satashi overcoming the temptation to access that wealth and take credit for his invention. If it is Szabo he is an amazing human being.

How to tell whether a conspiracy theory is likely false? 1) It depends on a government agency being competent and able to hide their activities with supernatural skill without a single actual participant telling anyone anything. Yes. This is why this was a somewhat believable theory early on, but every year that has gone by makes it less and less likely to be true. I personally think the story of Bitcoin is a simple one. Hal Finney (or someone else) created it under a pseudonym for some reason and unfortunately died a few years later.

As opposed to Buffet and Munger?

A good article on Milei, what he’s up against and can likely accomplish. Written by Bryan Caplan a libertarian-leaning economics professor at George Mason University. https://betonit.substack.com/p/will-milei-make-argentina-great-again

satashi/bitcoin being a project of the CIA has always been a theory right from the beginning. I don’t think so, Satashi’s writings were way too libertarian-like/cryptopunk, but that could certainly be faked. The Onion Router/deepweb was created by US intelligence so it is certainly possible Bitcoin was too. The government can be short sighted and do things against its long term interests for short term goals.

I’d bet you, but I’ll be in my 70s 20 years from now, that’s too long a time frame for a bet. I just think you underestimate how quickly change can happen.

I just read through this thread and this is the best post by far. So much will change in the next 30 years it’s almost unimaginable. 30 years ago almost no one had internet access for example. I had it in 1993 only because I was an engineering student and I had to go sit at a Unix work station in the computer lab in the EE department building to access it. There was a short list of all the websites in the world. Almost no one had cellphones yet. Calling “long distance” on a landline was still an expensive undertaking. Society will change, tech, the world. There are almost no companies in existence right now which will not go through multiple management changes over the next 30 years. There is no company I can think of that I’d buy if I absolutely couldn’t sell it for 3 decades. If I had to pick some, it would be utilities, pipelines, shipping, JOE and other real estate companies. But I wouldn’t feel comfortable doing it. An index is the way to go for a long term passive portfolio.