Parsad

Apple would neither have a hard time starting a bank, nor doing what VISA does. Apple Pay will become what VISA is. Cheers!

All they have to do is apply for a banking license. They already have the consumer network. It would be pretty easy for any tech company to start a bank...just like it is for anyone with $1M or more to start a bank if they wanted. Cheers!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cryptos-players-hoarding-bitcoin-tether-aed13251?siteid=yhoof2 Cheers!

San Francisco tower sells for 73% discount from 2020 price: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/san-francisco-fire-sale-downtown-120042720.html Just the beginning! Going to be a huge mark down of CRE prices on financial statements. Cheers!

I think banking is one of the few industries that has been pretty adept at changing with the tides so far. Over the last 125 years, there has been enormous change in banking, especially in the last 20 years. Yet, they seem to find a way to adapt. Now, I'm not sure that is going to happen going forward. I think some large tech companies with their consumer dominance (AAPL, GOOG, META, MSFT, AMZN) have the cash flows and networks to start offering services very much in line with banking...savings, loans, credit cards, mortgages, investments, etc. We are seeing that happen. So it will be interesting to see how banks adapt to that as these companies delve deeper into that line of business. Banks may have to expand their other lines of business further like wealth management, investment banking, etc. I think the U.S. banking system is ripe for consolidation over the next 20 years. Regional banks will have a tougher time competing with the giants (both banking and tech/banking). Cheers!

Agree! You look like you are in fantastic shape. I wish I was you! Cheers!

Brilliant guy! Great real estate investor. Cheers!

Where does the hate end then? Look at Israel and Palestine. My nephew is half hindu and half sikh. Should he brought up to hate hindu's because of the attack on the Golden Temple by Indira Gandhi? Or should he hate sikh's because of the Air India bombing? Right now, he's just a kid that loves his family and everything about life! An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind - Gandhi. Cheers!

As Munger said, he doesn't know what he's talking about! P/B for banks stayed where they were because they were increasing and accumulating excess capital...both because of statutory requirements after 2009 and deposits from consumers...while buying back shares. There has been little disruption to banking so far...even with payment companies, etc. That will change, but the effect has been somewhat muted so far because banks adapted in the last ten years and increased other lines of business. Cheers!

Banks have a huge inherent risk because of their leverage and lack of transparency in their loan portfolio. It's a simple business that has become incredibly complicated. I think they need to get cheaper based on the current risks. Yes, retail based on P/E and P/B. Do they own their underlying real estate portfolio? Are cash flows somewhat reliable? Is debt manageable and are they paying it down? Are they turning over inventory or is it stagnant and building? Cheers!

After the last few years, I decided I wasn't going to focus on macro at all. I watch it, but I don't focus on it. So when big tech got cheap, I invested 50% into it. First time in my life I owned tech stocks other than AAPL years ago. Now my accounts are stuffed with FFH, META, GOOGL, BRK...and sadly OSTK has not reacted the way I thought it would...still cheap, and we have that call option on the blockchain businesses. Sold all my SHOP calls and have been buying a couple of retail stocks recently. Again, you would think retail would killed in a recession, but they are dirt cheap...and may get cheaper! Cheers!

While liquidity has become tighter, I imagine it will become even more constricted in the next 6 months. Refinancing of corporate, commercial, residential and personal debt is going to be much more difficult over the next 12-18 months. I think for the next 2 years, cash will be king and deals aplenty! Cheers!

You will probably see more similarities over time to Berkshire and Markel. Wade and Lawrence invest more like Buffett and Gayner. Whereas the old Hamblin-Watsa gang were more deep distressed equity/bond investors like Ben Graham or Seth Klarman. As the younger guys have more influence, and the older guys less influence, you'll see the portfolio behave more like Berkshire or Markel. Cheers!

In the short-term, the market is a voting machine. In the long-term, it is a weighing machine. Let Prem do his thing and the market will eventually realize what is happening. Always happens...as consistent as gravity! Just takes a bit of patience. Cheers!

One last clip...while Monty Python was brilliant, I thought Fawlty Towers was essentially one season of perfection! Cheers!

You can also see huge strains at food banks across North America, the UK, etc. Where they are near the breaking point! But it's still a world of two economies...one where pain is being inflicted on individuals and corporations from higher interest rates, inflation and lower margins...and the second where employment is low, spending remains robust and certain sectors are rebounding with strength like hotels, travel, restaurants, shopping, airlines, etc. Hard to tell what the eff is going on...so I just don't really try! Focus on finding cheap stocks and if you can't...buy high yielding T-bills until you do find something. Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-sign-of-trouble-why-more-americans-are-missing-their-debt-payments-193605635.html Cheers!

WTF? Did I tell others what to do? No, so keep your animosity where it belongs.

Wouldn't that apply to probably at least of 10% of current U.S. citizens who go back 5 generations or more? What about 15% of Germans who go back 3 generations to the Holocaust? At some point, people have to accept that history was violent, unfair and certainly not Christian. My family were indentured laborers taken to Fiji from India 5 generations ago. I'm not blaming the Queen for that, as she had nothing to do with it. Hate only leads to more violence and constrains the generations going forward. Cheers!

You mean 1992 Hurricane Andrew? That would be a $100B+ loss in today's dollars. So FFH would take a $800m-$1B loss and BRK would take a $5-8B loss. A portion of FFH's loss may be offset by some reinsurance, but it would still be no less than $500M. BRK would take a $5-8B loss. Fairfax generally can survive an 8.0 earthquake in California and a F5 hurricane hitting Florida...both in the same year. That would be $500-700B in losses in todays dollars most likely. So a $5-7B loss for FFH...remembering a chunk of that would be offset by reinsurance. BRK would take a $25-50B hit. A $5B loss for Fairfax would wipe out 25% of its equity. A $50B hit to BRK would wipe out only 10% of its equity. One other note, insurance is the only business in the world where the economics of the industry are extremely good after the worst possible thing happens. No other industry works like that! So while FFH and BRK would get hit, they would be huge beneficiaries for several years afterwards on premium pricing. It's why risk management is absolutely crucial when it comes to insurance. You manage risk so that your lumps aren't so painful, because once you get through that pain, it's nirvana on the other side! Cheers!

Assume Fairfax is going to get hit by 0.8-1% of any large scale catastrophe loss. Berkshire generally gets hit by 5-8%. I wouldn't worry so much about exposure to a specific region...they are good about that. On a historical basis, they've always fallen into that range and regardless of where or what was hit, they've always managed their losses geographically. If they took on more Florida exposure because rates were good, they probably laid off a chunk of their potential losses through reinsurance. Berkshire doesn't do that...Berkshire is the reinsurer of last resort in most cases. Cheers!

I suspect that's why the Queen at the end of her reign was quite beloved. Yes, the monarchy is outdated and she lived a life of privilege, but 96 years of life sacrificed for one thing...the betterment of her country and duty to it. From the day she was born till the day she died, and how she did it with such class regardless of partisan politics or what was fashionable. There are a lot of people who did the same thing in their own little way. We don't understand that till we start to really age as well! I too have a new found respect at age 54...I joined CARP this year...same thing as AARP in the U.S.! I don't cringe about my behavior when I was younger to the elderly...I have to say I was quite good about that. I just cringe about my behavior in general when I was younger! Cheers!

Did pop to a record $971 CDN today, but then dropped back down. Cheers!

Should note also that the notional amount is $3B compared to a bond portfolio of $32B...so the actual short position is about $300M or so...1% of the total bond portfolio. That's in significant contrast to what their short positions in equities were like in the past. Cheers!

Hopefully not! May have to kick some ass to get people to stop posting that stuff. Cheers!