Parsad

Banks, as long as they stick to banking, have produced fantastic results in virtually all emerging, developing and developed markets. Indian banking is mostly state-controlled/managed and barriers to entry are high...that makes a good banking moat, especially when like you said, half the country is still learning about bank accounts, managing wealth and borrowing. The bet on banking is a bet on India...that it continues in the direction it is headed to become the 3rd largest economy in the world by GDP and the largest country in the world by population...including an increasing number of programmers, engineers and entrepreneurs. There is no certainty, but recent past history looks good, the trends look good, the direction of government looks good in terms of deregulation, and it is promising. Personally, I don't own any FIH...my bet is directly through FFH's ownership in FIH/India. That reduces my exposure to any risk there, while still benefiting if the bet is accurate! Cheers!

Historically, we know that Fairfax is more opportunistic than say Berkshire or Markel. If they get offered a high premium, they will consider selling a portion or all of a business to buy something cheaper. Then they may return later and buy back what they sold at a cheaper valuation. They've always been more pure "Ben Graham" investors, rather than "Phil Fisher". And they've generally done a lot better behaving that way, rather than being a Berkshire "buy and hold" type of company...think Blackberry and some of the other wholly-owned non-insurance businesses...not generally top-tier like Berkshire...more cigar-butts and turnarounds! So frankly, their philosophy works for them, and I would rather they do what they are great at, then be mediocre at what they aren't innately attuned to. Cheers!

The same could have been said during Trump's first term, and then they were saying it during Biden's term, and then again during Trump's second term. There's been a lot of money to be made during all three terms so far! Pick stocks, not history! Cheers!

That would be an awful allergy! Especially for a decade or two. I think markets are somewhat overvalued in certain areas...it certainly isn't 2000, but things are skewed. Again, I can't predict the future. Earnings are certainly more real this time around (AI) compared to 2000 (Internet). If I can't find something, I go to cash in my trading accounts like I was the last 5 months...now I'm starting to find stuff again. You always find opportunity...you just have to be patient. Especially for us smaller investors, there is always some opportunity every year. Cheers!

Funny how they didn't defund Wharton! Cheers!

I don't think he hates puppies...bigot, but not a Nazi. The rest is accurate, including world's greatest narcissist. I'm pretty sure you've convinced yourself...the hallucinations are quite real! Cheers!

It's funny how you guys equate one with the other. So because someone is a pedo, but makes decisions you like, makes it ok because the other guy is not a pedo, but is doing other evil things. That's not very sound logic...it's what keeps you in trouble! Cheers!

Maybe work back from what he said in 2023 and 2025. There is a difference of about $1B from underwriting profit of increases of $250M, interest and dividend income increases of $500M, and income from associates and non-insurance consolidated income of $250M. In 2023, the recurring income before gains was $125 per share...today it is $150 per share. The text from 2023 Letter states: We can see sustaining our adjusted operating income for the next four years at $4.0 billion (no guarantees), consisting of: underwriting profit of $1.25 billion or more; interest and dividend income of at least $2.0 billion; and income from associates of $750million, or about $125 per share after taxes, interest expense, corporate overhead and other costs. These figures are all, of course, before fluctuations in realized and unrealized gains in stocks and bonds! The text from 2025 Letter states: We can see sustaining our consolidated operating income for the next four years at $5 billion (again, no guarantees) consisting of underwriting profit of $1.5 billion or more, interest and dividends of $2.5 billion and income from associates and non-insurance consolidated income of $1 billion. That would represent about $150 per share after taxes, interest expense, corporate overhead and other costs. These figures are all, of course, before fluctuations in realized and unrealized gains and losses in stocks and bonds! Lately, our earnings are less lumpy than they used to be, but investment gains and losses remain lumpy by nature. Cheers!

You are missing about $500M or so by double-counting subsidiary corporate overhead and interest expense on non-insurance businesses. Prem is relaying that the holding company earns about $150 per share excluding investment gains. Earnings/dividends to the holding company are after those expenses are already deducted at the subsidiary level. So holding company expenses is below $200M on an annual basis, not close to $500M...$300M there. Interest expense and interest expense on lease liabilities for non-insurance businesses is around $200M. Total around $500M. Cheers!

LOL! Cheers!

This is not going to age well for Cubs! Kind of like how the NY Jets thought Mark Sanchez would save the franchise until he ran into his own center's rear end! Cheers!

Yeah, this is an issue both Berkshire and Fairfax have addressed in the past. They have internal decisions about how these are made...I wouldn't worry too much about it. Fairfax has their own in office trading desk/room that Frances Burke used to run...not sure who oversees it now. I believe they would generally execute their order for all of the subsidiaries and then allocate based on size/percentage. Also, certain stocks belong with certain subsidiaries...for example, you aren't going to buy stocks for American subsidiaries that are in FIH...so the issue never comes up. I would imagine when Ben is fully integrated into Fairfax long-term, Marval will be bought out by Hamblin-Watsa...just like Hamblin-Watsa was brought in-house. Regarding the Lubrizol/Berkshire issue with Sokol, it was over a personal position he had taken. Again, I suspect Fairfax has internal structure on how this is done or not done. They've been pretty good about being proactive on these things over the years. At Berkshire, before the two T's, Buffett would just do everything. Not sure how it works now.

+1! Yes, way too early and also remember Fairfax's investment team works as a committee to tear ideas apart. While Ben will be overseeing one major area, other team members will be overseeing other core areas of investments. Combine that with the insurance engines (overseen by others) and fully-owned, non insurance businesses, you have a variety of people leading the company's growth engines. Again, the de-centralized nature of the business allows people to succeed and to eff up...but corrections and decisions can be made quickly. Maintaining the culture is paramount...and that's where any "perceived" deficiencies in the children's investment abilities, would be made up in spades by Ben and Christine's leadership abilities to remember what their father taught them about Fairfax and responsibility to its shareholders! Cheers!

Like Andy Barnard, she may be the person to eventually oversee all of the non-insurance, financial businesses and probably a prospective replacement for David Johnston's global statesman presence representing Fairfax. Cheers!

I don't disagree with you. The common user is a single parent with children, street youth, small families with single/low dual incomes, refugees, immigrants, single seniors, disabled with low disability income, etc. But food banks are seeing more people with decent incomes as well. Now if that is due to irresponsibility or circumstance, you can decide if you want to donate or not...I'm not asking people to donate only to food banks...I'm just mentioning that there is a greater need at the moment. Cheers!

Yeah, this analysis was really amazing! I think when we talk about transformational...this is one aspect that I don't think shareholders have really engaged in yet when it comes to Fairfax. We are talking about the expansion and growth of Fairfax's banking investments in Europe/Asia. Like suddenly owning a large economic interest in $30B of real estate and fixed income investments through KW, Fairfax is now a front-runner in Indian and Greek banking! Two of the few economies expanding and growing rapidly globally and certainly India for the next 30 years. Like he did with David Sokol, Prem doesn't mind looking at bruised fruit for that one golden shiny apple...Erkan may be another apple! Cheers!

Cost of living when you include rent/mortgage costs eat up a good chunk of income compared to the past in most major cities in NA. Combine that with debt loads on auto, credit cards, HELOCs, etc post-Pandemic, a lot of people have gotten themselves into problems. I'm less concerned about the able-bodied, irresponsible adults as I am the vulnerable children, seniors, disabled, etc. And a lot of them are having to use food banks/soup kitchens in the last few years compared to the last couple of decades. I can't imagine my niece and nephew going to school hungry, but about 10% of school children do not eat a proper breakfast or lunch in Vancouver. Some of these children are probably their friends. Cheers!

LOL! That's perfect! Cheers!

Yup. I donate every year personally to 8 organizations at Christmas...that's why I always mention remembering to give at Christmas time on TCOBF...especially Food Banks around the world are really struggling. Here in North America, there are 50%+ increases in demand at pretty much every food bank in every major city in the last 2 years! Many are on the brink of survival if they do not get more government/corporate support or donations returning to normal post-Pandemic. A recent study showed that 25% of the population in Canada faces some form of food insecurity presently with inflation, stagnant wages, too much debt, large mortgages, etc. Cheers!

Pretty much! Plus whatever Teflon coating he has on is a shitload better than anyone else in history. Nothing sticks! And if it does, it slides off each successive term...probably a third one whether he's living or not! No one is talking pee-pee tape now or the 34 convictions. If he somehow makes it through the Trump-Epstein files...geez! One of the greatest slimeballs in history...that literally changed the course of history like few ahead of him. Now whether that course is good or bad is all up for debate and only time will tell! Cheers!

I suspect the war will slowly come to a non-surrendered, but agreed upon end shortly: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-07-26 Ok, we apologize for bombing our neighbors who didn't shoot at us! All good! Ok U.S., we will never surrender, but let's talk! Cheers!

Not according to Brett Horne! Still a "no moat" company trading well above intrinsic value. Cheers!

It's not a pair trade. I think he stated "weird pair trade", meaning he essentially thought both were worth more...traded to value in one probably knowing that they would not go up in value at the same time. Or at least not likely. And might have the opportunity to sell and buy the other before markets recognized fair value again. Cheers!

The "swimming naked" revelations are slowly rearing their heads! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-26-billion-private-credit-195527199.html

Whenever they say they are bored, I tell them let's go outside and wash my car or sweep the driveway. They suddenly aren't bored! The other problem is that kids are so busy these days, that using electronics is their reward or way to wind down. Besides school, my nephew is working on his black belt in Tae Kwon Do, plays hockey 3 days a week and has a hockey tournament every other month that takes up the entire weekend. He's 11! My niece is only 8, plays four days a week on a rep soccer team...already! They have full gear, jackets, backpacks, water bottles, etc. Then their parents have very active lives...season tickets to Canucks games, busy work and social lives, my brother is a bank manager and plays hockey 3 days a week, my sister-in-law is a notary and has tons of client/prospect meetings, etc. So Uncle and Grandma end up helping out quite a bit as well! Once we are run down, the iPad option comes out! Cheers!