Parsad

Wishing you all a wonderful Christmas! The vast majority of members on the COBF are doing great or very comfortable. Please remember those less fortunate this season...many have been hit harder than usual...food banks are near breaking points in many areas. May 2024 bring you further prosperity and happiness! All the best, Sanjeev

Correct! Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-real-estate-meltdown-battering-230000975.html Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forecasting-tool-hasnt-wrong-70-100600330.html Cheers!

I thought the Blackstone video was the funnier one...especially once they began the song/tour. Watching Steve Schwartzman wearing the gold lamme jackets and pants was worth it! Also liked the jabs at Blackrock. Cheers!

Great analysis Viking! Cheers!

That was damn funny! Cheers!

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/media/sports-illustrated-ai-articles-ceo/index.html Cheers!

Yeah, no. Funny what a difference a month can make! Cheers!

Glad things turned out well! Definitely an investment with incredible results. Cheers

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/08/business/kripsy-kreme-paris-open-store/index.html From the land that created Tim Hortons, I'm a Krispy Kreme fan! We have one store in all of British Columbia...and fortunately it's a short drive from my house! Cheers!

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/economy/china-cpi-deflation-worsens-intl-hnk/index.html Cheers!

Not sure what the gameplan is here, but they've reopened two stores. Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/10/business/sears-burbank-store-revived-retailer-holidays/index.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macys-mulling-58-billion-buyout-offer-source-230606275.html Tomorrow morning, I'm going to make on Macy's in the last six months, as much as I've made on META in the last year and FFH in the last three years! I believe Castanza will be quite happy too! Cheers!

Reading the 1998 Letter to Shareholders on Berkshire's website when it first went online. None of my investments would have happened without doing that, so for the price I paid (free), and the return I received (independent wealth)...hands down the best investment ever made! 2nd best investment...buying and reading "The Intelligent Investor". Taught me how to value a stock. I know that's not what you wanted to hear, but they are by far the best investments ever made in my entire life. Cheers!

I've been to China, have done business there and have plenty of friends who either live there or do business there. I don't think either of you are correct! I took a small team of people down there when I went of various ethnicities...didn't face any racism or bias at all. In fact, the Chinese people we met with everywhere were welcoming, wonderful people...no different than many of the people I meet in the U.S. or Canada. There are cultural differences, but they all have the same goals...peace, prosperity and good health for their families. That being said, like many regions in the world that have decent economies, there are innate risks to operating there. The CCP is more of a heavy-handed government...they don't like what you are doing or saying, they will essentially cancel your business license and all contracts. You are done! If you are a Chinese resident...there may be more significant repercussions. In terms of human rights abuses, I'm sure there are plenty, not unlike Saudi Arabia, India, even some areas of the U.S. presently with plenty of antisemitism, antipalestinian sentiment! Almost any country you go to in this world, you will find something to complain about in terms of human rights. Canada is one of the most progressive countries in the world, with significant wealth, yet there is a 5 block by 5 block area of Vancouver (Hastings & Main) that is essentially like parts of Gaza but with mental health issues, homelessness and drug abuse...as nasty a slum as you will see anywhere...smack dab in the center of what used to be our core business area 50 years ago! There are many good things about China, just like there are many good things about the U.S. There are also many bad things about both countries...including their politics. Is U.S. politics any better than anywhere else these days? I mean it's a shitshow from the left and the right. You've got dueling 80+ year old frontrunners...neither of whom should be in office...and one of them is just a complete moron these days and indicted on some 90 plus charges! Really, this is the best of America?! So, before we go throwing stones at China or anyone else, we need to really look hard at ourselves first and say...we could be doing better and set the example for the world...Canada included! Cheers!

+1! In the late 70's as interest rates started to rise, Jim Pattison (a local billionaire) said that the Bank of Montreal called all of his loans. He scrambled to find money to save his businesses at the time...he was days away from losing everything! He promised himself at that time, that he will never put himself or his businesses in a position where he has to rely on outside capital, especially the banks! Today, Jim Pattison Group is probably the largest private enterprise in Canada valued at about $10B USD...he owns all of it...and he does not rely on the banks or anyone else! He's also good buddies with Buffett. Cheers!

When 9/11 happened, BCN (biological, chemical, nuclear) exclusions were added to all insurance policies. But insurers were still on the hook for losses for policies written before that. What if your insurance subs need an injection of capital and it is hard to raise capital? We've been there before. Fortunately, we had good friends who bailed us out until we could get our legs under ourselves again. I don't want FFH to be an insurer that has to go looking for capital in an outlier event. Like Berkshire, I want them to be self-funding. Because when money is tight, cash is king...including for your own protection! Yes, you give up some gains, but you will live when others perish! It's why I always have a fair amount of cash in everything I do. And it works for corporations as well! Cheers!

Yes, I think $2B at the holdco would be the new comfort level with the size of operations now...and I'm not keen on including the revolver in that amount. If you want to say we're a rock solid company, then you have to keep cash at the holdco...simple! Cheers!

Double yikes!! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-called-chinese-bank-turmoil-000000242.html Cheers!

Yes, they are simply using most of the funds to replace existing debt. In terms of cash balances in subs...yes, in normal times you are correct...aggregate cash is all that matters, because they could dividend up significant sums. But when you have a hard market, you cannot do that as readily, because it decreases your statutory surplus and the amount of business you can write. Thus why we have been carrying less cash at the holding company than the $1.5B Prem says he likes to have. Presently, they encourage shareholders to include the debt revolver as available cash, which isn't really the same thing. At some point, I expect them to pull money from the subs and have nearly $2B cash at the holdco level, but that may be a year or two out. Cheers!

Ron Olson is only as rich as he is because of his stake in Berkshire Hathaway. So while Olson and Munger would have been very successful in another universe solely as lawyers and real estate investors, it probably wouldn't be anywhere near what they are worth today due to Berkshire. Cheers!

Some terrific data and information in there! Cheers!

Chinese Borrowers Default in Record Numbers https://www.ft.com/content/f144f763-873c-4b4d-99e7-5e71ae07316d?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev Cheers!

Did the same! Great minds think alike! Got my average cost down to just around $12 per share as it fell, and switched out of January 25 $17 Calls to January 25 $13 Calls at roughly the same valuation during the week. Right-sized the position as well, as it had gotten pretty big as it rebounded 50%+ since November 13th! All in all, up about 65% so far on the shares and calls combined! Can see $20 within range this month. Makes up about 12% of the portfolio presently. Fair value for the business remains around $22-25, not including value for the real estate...but I'm not counting on them selling the real estate. Cheers!