bargainman

Have you watched Tony Seba's recent video on projections for the next 5 - 10 years? Going to be wild.. It's worth watching some of Ray Kurzweil's presentations on exponential change as well. Things start so slow but once they hit that curve... acceleration...

Yeah I was pointing out extreme cases, but esports and video gaming is a huge industry and only growing. Virutal money, virtual worlds etc. It was a big driving force for CPU and GPU development as well before LLMs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-20-most-valuable-esports-141434303.html

Ha that's a great list. Years ago I read that the entertainment industry was the USA's greatest export, more so than manufacturing. I know lots of rich people but lots of poor and struggling folks as well, so I never take things for granted. We are all fortunate to have time and money to invest. I think a big challenge will be just the mathematical nature of inequality. Once you have 10 million, you can can sit on your butt all day and just earn about a million a year for doing nothing. The next year it's 1.1 million and onwards. Got a billion? ok, you earn 100 million a year for sitting around.. and so on. You can claim that those folks might build jobs but I don't think that always happens especially for passive investors. But time will tell how this shakes out. I agree about the dirty jobs/construction jobs. I was just talking with folks in Vancouver about how hard it is to find trades people, plumbers, electricians etc. No one wants to do those jobs apparently, and the ones who do only want the big contracts with large construction projects. It'll be tough to automate those things with robots etc....

Yup wastewater is showing covid high spikes again. Lots of friends and coworkers sick all over.

Well I try not to be violent in any circumstance. I've been trading options for over a decade, everything from butterfly spreads to iron condors to broken wings, diagonals, collars, calendars, delta neutral, you name it. The most I've made is from holding great compounding machines and living my life.

yeah apparently Gates would have 1.2 trillion had he held https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-could-trillionaire-today-163852659.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6-hkbarMKw "Overpriced in the short term, underestimated the long term impact" <<< that is the story of technology wrt "we've been eliminating work for ten thousand years"... yes but the rate of innovation in some areas keeps increasing... it used to be that new innovations might wipe out the old/retiring generation. now people are getting wiped out of careers and jobs potentially every few years. The societal impact has one big giant experiment TBD.

Some of those are making millions doing it

yeah I can't find the original post, but here's an article describing it. https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-presentation-2011-10 "People like Jeff are better regarded as hyper-intelligent aliens with a tangential interest in human affairs." LOL I would add "aliens with 500 million dollar yachts" lol

Well you've probably seen one of those market or revenue visualizations ... it's pretty apparent why. Also with regards to "it is still possible to come from nothing and make a fortune. " yeah sure but you gotta be really lucky. everyone on that list probably has an IQ above 140. then on top of that you gotta have the willingness to want to work hard and make a difference...

Any top takeaways from this book?

that's kind of amusing considering he used to work for the Fool, a stock picking service. But I always did enjoy his articles.

I have been listening and watching his podcasts and interviews for a while. Boy that guy's smart. He definitely has a interesting, more grounded approach to longevity, which makes sense given his MD background. It will be interesting to see if some more of the "out there" approaches gain more traction. Whereas I appreciate his protocols, I just can't really exercise for as long as he does, at least not while I have all the responsibilities I have. Which sounds strange given that he's probably got a lot more responsibilities than I do, but maybe not. Some takeaways from interviews I've heard from him he starts from the place of "these are the four horsemen of death", let's go one by one and try to prevent them. I forget all of them but off the top of my head metabolic disease - insulin resistance and diabetes and those sorts of things cardiovascular disease - by far the largest and least predictable... he once said that his medical professor asked them "what's the number one predictor(?) of heart disease?". after many people suggest things like chest pain, radiating pain, etc... the professor said no it's "death". it will be interesting to see if the diagnostic tools here get better other than just looking at lipid levels all the time. he talks about APOB as the goal standard for that, and apparently has a protocol including statins that knockout his risk cancer - other than some of the obvious ones ( alcohol, smoking) it's also kind of unpredictable but, again if you catch it early there's a much higher chance of survival. neuro genitive diseases he also actually mentions car accidents which are pretty high on the list, so be sure to take whatever precautions you can there, and get a heavy car! he doesn't really go into life extension much, but a lot of that has yet to be proven.

Is there a standard place to find warrants for sale? The last warrants I bought were AIG and maybe another bank stock back after the crisis, but they always felt like one offs.

Whereas in the past I found trading options a interesting distraction, I don't think I ever found them particularly profitable other than just simply buying leaps on occasion to make sure I didn't miss out on the upside in a market I didn't trust on the downside. And when I say 'particularly profitable' I mean after all of the time finding credit sales, managing positions, and then paying the short term taxes, never mind the bid ask spread/slippage. I mean it's kind of a fun math exercise I just don't think it really consistently adds that much value.

S&P or total stock market fund.

By the way regarding all of the construction and manufacturing, I wonder how much the inflation reduction act has been having an effect. It's a huge investment if it sounds like a lot of it is going into stateside manufacturing especially around green energy related enterprises. I'm not sure how reputable FT is, but this is definitely an interesting overview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfaubxeS5HU

Well there's all sorts of jobs that have been created that one would never have even imagined. would you believe there are people making millions of dollars getting a ball and running it to the end of a field? and then there's also people making not quite as many million dollars trying to stop those people from getting the ball to the end of the field heck there's even folks making millions of dollars playing video games! And get this, there are people travelling around the world living like royalty, making their living by telling others how ... They travel the world living like royalty for under 50K/year. I mean I'm not even kidding. https://www.youtube.com/@GroundedLifeFinances/videos Anyway with regards to someone's comment about dermatologists, I read somewhere of that the main medical body of the USA very specifically limits supply because they don't want too many doctors because of well you can imagine... Supply demand right? There also seems to be an undercurrent ifyounger folks leaving the us a for some of the european countries because they are tired of the work work work culture and would rather work to live than live to work.

what is your thesis on this?

I usually like my coffee just black plain black... no hints of caramel, fruit, fluffy stuff... But I gotta say that nespresso nocciola ain't bad.. not bad at all...

How does a lightning network work?

My post was a reaction to the "complete idiot" moniker, which clearly he is not. That said I know many many brilliant people who would not take stock advice from that doesn't mean they're complete idiots though.

Looking at my records I purchased FFH shares 2007-2013. So basically during the time where they looked like geniuses for making a billion dollars by purchasing credit default swaps... but then promptly lost that billion dollars by purchasing puts on the equity markets that had already dropped by fifty percent. At the time when Buffett was making deals left and right. Or at least that's how I remember it.

Yes PKW

The reason I ask is because many years ago I decided I would invest with Buffett and his acolytes in value investing. I purchased Berkshire, Fairfax, Markel, Leucadia(now, Jeffries), fairholme, wintergreen even. Other than Berkshire, they have all significantly underperformed.