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bargainman

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Everything posted by bargainman

  1. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-1929-prediction-sp500-outlook-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-3 Hmm apparently Hussman is a legendary investor. Anyone know what his returns have been?
  2. Made me LOL. Sorry but this is the nature of tech, always has been. Gates always said he was more worried about a couple of folks in a garage cooking something up that would turn the entire industry upside down. These days a LOT of stuff is out in the open. Take a look at huggingface which hosts community and models of many many open source LLMs. This is academia driven sort of. they always were driven to publish or perish and release their stuff to get reviewed. These days though the limits are starting to show with training. It's crazy how expensive it is to train an LLM, how many GPUs and how much energy it takes. it's really only very large companies with huge budgets, GPUs and data that can afford it. Plus the data annotation process is difficult and error prone, nevermind ethically challenging. Still, once models are out, a lot of them are open source, so you can finetune for less money, and just try prompt engineering to get what you want/need. It's still day one.. early early days which is shocking but true.
  3. It's more than that. I mean there's user level stuff but then there are things like https://www.langchain.com/langchain that create components that get chained together for different flows. It's usually not just a single statement. When you message Chat GPT for example it doesn't just take what you wrote and give it to the LLM. It goes through layers and tries to prevent attacks and uses what are called "system" level prompts to wrap your user level prompt. Plus there's no memory so it actually sends your entire conversation through the LLM every time. So there's a lot too it.
  4. Small positions in SCHD and DGRO. Getting older I guess lol
  5. You have to take him for what he's like which is that he's not knowledgeable enough about the industry to really see things as they were or are. He got attached to Jobs, and has/had the reputation of being 'soft' on his subject. Apple didn't like his biography of Jobs since they didn't think it was an accurate representation. In fact they 'endorsed' a different one. https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-execs-criticise-steve-jobs-biographies-2015-10 That's not to say he's a bad writer or biographer, just that he's biased and flawed like anyone.
  6. It's amazing. I remember after 2008 and 2009 when BRK was already one of the largest most well known companies. Since then it just kept going up up up.
  7. Well there's a whole new field of so called "Prompt Engineering", which talks about how to properly ask questions of the LLMs to get good answers. if you are serious about using them you probably want to check that out. This is a free short course for developers but might be useful for others https://www.deeplearning.ai/short-courses/chatgpt-prompt-engineering-for-developers/ There are likely more suitable ones for the chat interfaces.
  8. I assume you have watched the talks by Ray Kurzweil and Tony Seba?
  9. With regards to the comments around unskilled immigrants, good luck finding nonimmigrants in the tiktok generation willing to do the menial difficult jobs like the migrant workers on farms, the dishes and floors in restaurants etc.
  10. if you get the McDonald's app, there's always a daily 2 for 1. 2 double cheeseburgers or 6pc chicken nuggets for $3.39. plus you earn points for the occasional free ice cream cone
  11. Well it depends sgov is 0-3 months so it really won't go down much. SHV is short term but slightly longer than that.
  12. I get good rates from the cash in Interactive Brokers. But for my other not so fortunate brokerage accounts I use some combination of SGOV, SHV, and MINT. that said if it's in a taxable account you probably want to wait till it goes ex-div, otherwise you will be converting some part of your capital into taxable income.
  13. Its day one, and the investment and innovation going into this is astounding... As Is the pace
  14. Has anyone tried this with Buffett's latest letter yet? https://www.adobe.com/acrobat/generative-ai-pdf.html
  15. What parts do you think were fabrications/lies?
  16. At some stage LLMs will make their way towards on device inference. Some of the new google models are device friendly. I'm sure Apple has designs on this as well with their neural engines and coreML, as well as the shared memory architecture.
  17. Indeed, it's always "day one". No one asks about how much energy this is all consuming though, and where the new content will come from once everything is generated.
  18. Some companies are focused on this https://helpx.adobe.com/firefly/faq.html#training-data https://www.computerworld.com/article/3699053/adobe-offers-copyright-indemnification-for-firefly-ai-based-image-app-users.html
  19. LeCun and Karpathy are luminaries in the AI field. Yes LLMs are pretty impressive. Multimodal models are too. Lots of big challenges ahead but moving at breakneck speed.
  20. I never really understood the rationale for the railroad purchase. The hailing of it as a high capital requirement business as if that was a huge positive. Now years later bemoaning that high capital requirement. I mean the higher that requirement, the higher the risk of a low ROE/ROIC no? I guess he did mention that he got it for a good price. Has anyone done an analysis of that part of the business since purchase? I wonder if he'd have made better by just buying back shares?
  21. Not sure where I'm going but I heard there's a dude living on cruise ships 50 weeks out of the year! Apparently costs about 80K years which isn't so bad really...
  22. Have you watched Tony Seba's recent video on projections for the next 5 - 10 years? Going to be wild.. It's worth watching some of Ray Kurzweil's presentations on exponential change as well. Things start so slow but once they hit that curve... acceleration...
  23. Yeah I was pointing out extreme cases, but esports and video gaming is a huge industry and only growing. Virutal money, virtual worlds etc. It was a big driving force for CPU and GPU development as well before LLMs https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-20-most-valuable-esports-141434303.html
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