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doughishere

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Everything posted by doughishere

  1. You can be sure that there are scores of email exchanges of those involved taking victory laps and giving high-fives to each other for the expected government sweep windfall. WH staffers and TSY officials rarely find themselves in a situation where a little financial engineering alleviates the pain of a financial problem that rises to the Presidential level. It's the holy grail and a once-in-a-career opportunity. The general model to gain standing as a government employee is (1) avoid association any perceived failure, and (2) promote and attach yourself to any perceived success. In the case of the NWS, there will be no shortage of bureaucrats employing #2 all the way up to the oval office. It's what they do. And it will be explosive. There it is again, the carrot.
  2. Theres been a few times where Buffett uses it just in the short term...on at least one occasion hes said that if he needs to come due for something he can always sell stock in some of its holdings. I tend to call debt leverage which is just borrowed funds to gain a very high return in relation to one's investment, to control a much larger investment, or to reduce one's own liability for any loss. This is one assumption that you are just going to have to make. Buffett has decided to take the high road and not employ as much as others. Although I bet this thread will talk about the technicalities of "a float" and the DTAs....which there are some good points to make.
  3. Dont think this was in the last one http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/11/22/269071/index.htm
  4. You guys should be watching Charlie rose...that guy from cbs last night....nailed it
  5. Well, I suppose I should take back my Trump joke Corker is just the intermediary.....Trump is going to ask Ackman to be vp. Dow 20K here we come!
  6. Larry KudlowVerified account ‏@larry_kudlow @nsfraudbuster Will discuss on radio @LarryKudlowShow tomorrow w/ money & politics A-Team. Incredible article. Gov't theft.
  7. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/280688-sen-corker-to-meet-with-trump-report May 20, 2016, 12:02 pm Corker to meet with Trump, feeding VP speculation By Jessie Hellmann
  8. Lets not drift down the polics road on this thread......although if you dont have 2-3% of your AUM in this you are a moron. You've said this before in this thread. The first time I assumed you were being sarcastic. In this case was making a joke...but truth of the matter is politics very much is relevant here. I really think that if Trump has a chance, that increases the odds of Obama ending the Cship. At that point he'll do everything he can to help Hillary - and a headline that states "$200 billion profit for taxpayers" will MOST CERTAINLY help her odds. On top of that, why not take the 79.9% (minus the cost of junior preferred) up front, instead of doing 100% of profits shared ad infinitum with all future administrations? ESPECIALLY if the next 4-8 years might be a maniac in the WH. On top of that there are real concerns of handing Republicans the GSEs (keeping the GSEs in limbo), as expressed by Mel Watt. So yes I think politics absolutely matters in this case. This would play sooooo well into his "Crooked Hillary" campaign.
  9. Lets not drift down the polics road on this thread......although if you dont have at least 2-3% of your AUM in this you are a moron.
  10. Lol. Wasn't merk asking why parrot was so quiet recently? This administration is starting to get dirty. I'm starting to become a 1 issue voter. Obama can end this Monday.
  11. Makes me sick reading these e-mails. I'm not surprised, just sick. Similar to the scene in The Big Short where Mark Baum is talking with the CDO Portfolio Manager at a Vegas restaurant. Lol. I takes hard work to be a real price of shit
  12. Made damn sure that Pilate Washed his hands and sealed his fate.....theres more to come. Have a good friday every one.....i dont need to know whats in there.
  13. Buffetts thoughts on reits....may or may not be helpful. UGA 1999? Question: The securitization of real estate? Buffett: There has been enormous securitization of the debt too of real estate and that is one of the items right now that is really clogging up the capital markets. The mortgage back securities are just not moving, commercial, not residential mortgage backs. But I think you are directing your question at equities probably. The equities, if you leave out the corporate form, have been a lousy way to own equities. You have interjected a corporate income tax into something that people individually have been able to own with a single tax, and to have the normal corporate form you have a double taxation in there. You really don't need it and it takes too much of the return. REITS have, in effect, created a conduit so you don't get the double taxation, but they also generally have fairly high operating expenses. If you get real estate, let's just say you can buy fairly simple types of real estate at an 8% yield, or thereabouts, and you take away close to 1% to 1.5% by the time you count stock options and everything, it is not a terribly attractive way to own real estate. Maybe the only way a guy with a $1,000 or $5,000 can own it but if you have $1 million or $10 million, you are better off owning the real estate properties yourself instead of sticking some intermediary in between who will get a sizable piece of the return for himself. So we have found very little in that field. You will see an announcement in the next couple of weeks that may belie what I am telling you today. I don't want you to think I am double crossing you up here. But generally speaking we have seen very little in that field that gets us excited. People sometimes get very confused about--they will look at some huge land company, like Texas Pacific Land Trust, which has been around over 100 years and has got a couple of million acres in Texas. And they will sell 1% of their land every year and they will take that (as income? Garbled) and come up with some huge value compared to the market value. But that is nonsense if you really own the property. You can't move. You can't move 50% of the properties or 20% of the properties, it is way worse than an illiquid stock. So you get these, I think, you get some very silly valuations placed on a lot of real estate companies by people who really don't understand what it is like to own one and try to move large quantity of properties. REITS have behaved horribly in this market as you know and it is not at all inconceivable that they become a class that would get so unpopular that they would sell at significant discounts from what you could sell the properties for. And they could get interesting as a class and then the question is whether management would fight you in that process because they would be giving up their income stream for managing things and their interests might run counter to the shareholders on that. I have always wondered about REITS that have managements they say their assets are so wonderful, and they are so cheap and then they (management) go out and sell stock. There is a contradiction in that. They say our stock is very cheap at $28 and then they sell a lot of stock at $28 less an underwriting commission. There is a disconnect there. But it is a field we look at and I can understand real estate, and we would be open for very big transactions periodically. If there was a LTCM situation translated to real estate, we would be open to that, the trouble is so many other people would be too that it would unlikely go at a price that would get us really get us excited.
  14. The Latest Fannie and Freddie Reform Bill Offers A Bonanza For Hedge Funds By JOHN CARNEY May 17, 2016 3:06 pm ET http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/05/17/the-latest-fannie-and-freddie-reform-bill-offers-a-bonanza-for-hedge-funds/ John Carney ‏@carney 34m34 minutes ago By my estimate, the Mulvaney bill transfer about $405 billion of value from taxpayers to $FNMA investors
  15. Isn't Bernie polling better vs Trump than Hillary? I'll probably vote third party again, but if I had to vote for one of the remaining main party candidates it'd probably be Bernie. I've always been right-leaning/independent, but the dude is one of the few politicians I've seen with integrity and I generally like the guy even if I disagree with his math/economics/entitlement stances. A Republican Congress would prevent him from doing much of the economic damage that I'm concerned he might do and I'd rather stand up for a politician who is trustworthy and has integrity than any of these other liars who might have better plans, but can't be trusted to actually follow through with anything they say. The problem with this election is that Trump is a caricature of the Republican party and Hillary seems increasingly likely to be a criminal. How did it come to this where we have to choose between a cartoon character and criminal for the highest office in the country? I think Hillary technically has the most individual votes than trump....I think.
  16. its pretty much a tracker position for them. $4m total market value in a $14-15+bn portfolio Yeah that's the beauty of this trade though...when those prefs start paying 8% interest on face value...lol there's some yield for you...when you buy a stock at 25c and suddenly it's paying 100% of that investment every quarter via dividend...that's what I call a coupon payment...it may be small but that share price(sorry if the intrinsic value post legalities) goes to 20$...well I don't need to explain.....as they say in the bible there are many ways to light Europe. Why would you sell the goose that lays a golden egg?.....that's what the fight is over. Shit if I was the Govt' I'd be jealous of someone else making those returns.....pikers. I actually support govt...just not in this case. Pikers. I wish Obama would executive order the third amendment int legality. Do it I dare you.
  17. From this mornings Email: ....its pretty good. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/contributors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine
  18. Not important to the conversation....anyone have an idea as to what "Tortego (phonetic sp.)." is referring to?
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