doughishere

Just starting this right now. "Sefs most remarkable skill his ability to transform former foes into allies." "In 1952 - less than five years after the Israeli war of Independence ended - he began to include Arabs and those from other minority sectors within his workforce. The enormous success of the precision cutting tools firm that he build, ISCAR, is die in part in his insistence on using the talents of all sectors of his country." "On discusses his concept for a new initiative for the Middle East that is akin to the Marshal Plan." This book gets a bit political....how could it not? "It was just a few years ago that people thought it possible to divide the world between those who think and those who manufacture. Factories in the West shut down, and manufacturing moved to countries such as China and India. Only recently have we come to realize what a mistake that was." " I write this book because i have not realized some of my dreams" of course cherry picked quotes.

Corker gonna loose his seat this next cycle?

Corker extended an invitation to Ackman (or maybe the other way around) during the Valeant "ambush." I originally thought that was for show, in that Corker would never follow through, but Corker mentioned again on CNBC a few days ago that he was going through with the meeting. I wonder if Corker is going to try and back channel Ackman into laying off on the ethics complaints. Again, it's perplexing to me that the hill is so aghast at these tactics. (Akin to the British finding the Americans' revolutionary war tactics to be brutish -- I mean, they don't even walk in formation and they shoot at you from trees!) But it's best not to push someone too far, because cornered animals are unpredictable. T.H.E. W.O.R.L.D.S B.E.S.T D.R.A.M.A

Any word from Epstein. Hes been quiet lately also. The highway is alive folks....

Merk, add that to corkers interruption during the VRX questioning.

Cant we be friends?

Actually not trying to be a jerk this time but hardincap, at some time you have to become comfortable with the imperfect information and adjust accordingly......theres a point where all you can do is wait and watch the lotus unfold.

Slow news week I guess or is there some cognitive bias where you look for evidence of wrong doing everywhere but 10,000 documents that are under government seal....

I have nothing further to add....

I bet the #fanniegate cause gets more value in dollar amount every time he writes a shit article in the wsj front page than the hedge funds have spent in the article lol.....$325,000 over 3 years what does that pay for, staples? I'm gonna go out on a limb here but I think there are bigger fish to fry in the anti-lobbying campaign.....must be a slow news week.

As they themselves mentioned at the meeting, you don't go to church to hear something new; you go to church to hear the old things harped on again and again. If Greenspan overdosed on Ayn Rand...imagine what would happen if someone overdosed on Buffett and Munger! lol. But in all seriousness...how many of you mothers and fathers out there had to repeat the same thing over and over to your child before they caught on.....things need to be repeated and you cant deny that there could be worse messages. As long said, "Here's a collection of my best ideas.They seem to work pretty good for me....good luck."

Keep dreaming. My guess is most of that is under lock and seal. Rumors were swirling that Buffett suddenly became a champion of higher taxes because he cut a deal with the Treasury to grandfather early partners in. There are allegations of dodgy partnership situations where if a dividend were paid or if the person died there could be serious tax (if not legal) consequences. And that Buffett "solved" this problem by cutting a deal. My prediction is everyone will be shocked at what comes out once Buffett dies. I'm suspicious when the only person talking about how great someone is is themselves or their groupies. My guess (educated and somewhat informed) is there are quite a few skeletons in his closet. Of course this board will say I'm wrong, he's a saint and disregard all of this. But maybe in 3/5/10 years when he passes we can revisit my predictions. I'd laugh, and wouldn't be shocked if that will going to be the case.......i truly wouldn't......maybe he has a love child.. but im gonna have to agree to disagree thats whats going to happen......pure speculation......I do feel like its ok to be not shocked if the revalation does turn ourt true but i dont think it its...lol we will see....."Just as every cop is a criminal And all the sinners saints As heads is tails" -Rolling Stones Gentlemans bet, Oddball....5/12/2021,5/12/2026, 5/12/2031 ..if were both alive and the message bards are still going...there should be a post or discussion or some sort of acknowledgement on the "post" buffett revelations.

Base Hit nailed it the other day "After Omaha last week, I heard someone say that Buffett and Munger “never say anything new”. This comment was probably out of frustration that Buffett and Munger didn’t unveil some secret formula for success in investing." That's not even the best part of the quote

Keynes nails it.... "The incomes of the well-to-do people have been cut by 2.5-3.5%. The school teachers are cut 15%, 1 in additional taxes which they have to pay. The school-teachers are cut 15%, 1 in addition to the extra taxes which they have to pay. It is monstrous thing to single out this case and discriminate against them, merely because they happen to be employees of the Governement. It is particularly outrageous, because efforts have been made in recent years to attract into the profession teachers of higher qualifications by holding out to them certain expectations." As 50cent says, "Different faces, Different names, different?....it's just the same."

Too bad they don't have 13fs from back in the day. I'm kinda hoping when Buffett and Munger pass on that the estate will "declassify" their notes and documents that are no longer relevant....I'm sure the big points will remain the same but it'll help shade in their masterpiece..

Wonder if Buffett gave the Teledyne example or if the journalist came up with it. Funny either eay. Conglomerates not his thing? Guess he didn't know he would be running one... Though to be fair, his model is different from what was popular at the time. I read a lot..... Anyways one of the most amazing thing is to read stuff from the past knowing full well the impending doom(in this case success) that's about to follow....it conextualizes the failure or success.....like watching an accident in slow motion replay....often there are similarities and patterns.

This is just too good not to share... http://docslide.us/documents/31752060-forbes-on-buffett.html Check this out....... Someone should put that on a t-shirt.

Bill on F&F: Fannie Mae (FNMA) / Freddie Mac (FMCC)Fannie’sand Freddie’s underlying earnings continued to progress modestly in the core mortgage guarantee business as the guarantee fee rate increased and credit costs declined. In addition, the non-core investment portfolio continued to shrink, resulting in a less risky and more capital-light business model. While underlying earnings improved, reported earnings remained volatile due to non-cash, accounting-based derivative losses in the non-core investment portfolio. As a result 5of the derivative losses and the Net Worth Sweep, the companies are at risk of requiring a capital draw from Treasuryto maintain a positive net worth. As a result, thererecentlyhave been a number of proposals from policymakers, trade groups, and industry analysts that seek to have the GSEs retain capitalso they are capitalized on a standalone basis.Inthe Perrycase in the D.C. Court of Appeals, new evidence came to light that shows Treasury entered intothe Net Worth Sweep immediately after learning from Fannie Mae’s CFO that the company expected to soon realize ~$50billionof profits from reversing a deferredtax allowance and expected to become sustainably profitable over time. We believe this new evidence further bolsters the Perryand Fairholmecases and our contention that the Net Worth Sweep is illegal http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Pershing-Square-1Q2016-Investor-Letter_May-11-2016_PSH-1.pdf

http://www.fisherinvestments.com/~/media/fisher%20investments/files/academic%20articles/jpm_cognitivebiasesinmarketforecasts.ashx?la=en I always find it interesting to read articles and just any think near the big blow ups....some of the though are fascinating knowing blowups are right around the corner......like watching an accident in slow motion knowing the outcome.

http://giphy.com/gifs/michael-jackson-eating-popcorn--GjYjLvGErsggg

Yeah. Thats pretty much my experience....back in mid to late 09' (post blowup) you could have bought any house in some really nice blue collar neighborhoods in Chicago(probably elsewhere in the US) and rented them back....we were renting to police officers, factory foremen (yes there are a few here and there). Places like Homewood, Lansing Il. Chicago Heights. Some guy had an insurance company he worked for rent one of the places for 2 years. The company signed a least for 2 years....Big insurance company too......Honest hard working Americans......even had a friend from HS we knew who was a carpenter who would fix up the places if shit broke....we threw him an equitable part of the equity..still does it...hes a great friend now. Thats the real tragedy of the 08' blow up...these guys cuz they blew out couldn't get another loan on a property for like 10 years....the competition for homes thus the driver for out bidding was wiped out..It was like an indy car driver in first place crashed his car with no one around him on the last lap...in tennis we called these unforced errors except it wasn't their fault..tahts where the wall street hate comes from....probably still cant get a loan cuz of regulations.....we wonder why the establishment is so hated...You(not you directly but the world ) all laugh at Trump, hes dumb you say...but dont quite second order thinking on why hes so "popular"(see Howard Marks wrorks on thinking)...Trump and his suporters(the people left behind by capitalism) are much smarter than you think. sorry for the digression.....They would loose their shit and we would buy it on the cheep and basically turn around and rent it back to them(not the same individual)......im not gonna candy coat it....thats what we did....and the left behind see that.....they are fully aware..trust me. Sorry for the political rants but most of these things arnt one off things they are a lattice work of thinking...sometimes comes though random neurons just fireing.....as Trump says "I just thought of that". Either way i dont want you to get the idea that i admire him, respect definitely......often we confuse respect of something with admire. I wish i could say it was ingenuity but it really was just dumb luck. Being so young we didnt get cought up in the mania and all had our jobs on Jackson so we were flush(luck 1 and 2 on top of the ovarian lottery). No kids, no school debt(i opted to go to a state school...like has and endowment of less than $100M), no car payments..shit.....we were paying rent on the north side. I lived in a place near depaul(all those kids and their fancy private education...i guess you could say i practiced value investing with my undergrad degree....to this day I love it when people aske me where i went to school...i use to be embarrassed...people still look at me with distaste....i can feel it.....) that my roommate and I were paying 900$ each....place was a shit hole....spilled beer all over the carpet and didnt clean it up.....trust me no chick was coming back to my place......always hers.....lol I lived on a series of air mattresses for a few months...i shit you not those things always pop... .. I remember the mood was so grim around the office........we couldn't wait to get out of work so we could go check out new places....started with one property....paid cash. bought 2 more within 6 months using that one as collateral......any appreciation in the price of the house was just the cherry.......then the cash flows pay for another one 20% down payment....the banks loved that....like giving a glass of water to them after they woke up hung over..who the f*uck was paying cash for anything?....i was staying up till 2-3 in the morning reading and lookng over shit....trying to figure it out...almost fell asleep at work some day....theres working 2 jobs for ya. We wernt the only ones I knew a navy corps man, who would do this shit from Afghanistan...though he only told me about one place.....I actually rented from him for a few years...$2200 for a 2 bedroom in River north.....the view was killer....could see Trump tower and the fireworks every wednesday....lol how we would describe the view out at bars to other guys..lol...lockerroom talk was fun.......we shoulda been paying him $2600 but he set the price and we scooped...i was making more money so naturally we naturally got a nicer place....still had a roommate..."doughishere, why do you have a roomate?" "doughishere, you shoud think about getting your own place"....the questions i would get...lol, go find some other dude honey........i think now the same place goes for near $3k a month....too expensive for me...lol....smart guy....not sure how hes made out though...i dont think that property was as good as down south......Theres the sign of the times....calling in rental properties from afghansatan...Thank you Al Gore for the internet......I would fix his dish washer send him the bill and wouldent hear back for 4-6 days...telling me hes out on the bush.....he just dialed it in from the bush....never quite sure how he funded it....im sure the army didnt pay that much. Someone should make him a 5 star General. This last blowup was really worse I think in terms on impact upon people....sure you had the south see bubble or the tulip bulbs....but tulips wilt...like razors you need to make more. Property in a major urban area....thats forever. Best part about it I can always raise the prices on chocolate.....lol Buffet is a smart guy.....im still amazed some times. Theres the transfer of wealth...... or at least till you get a CNBC. Theres the magical quote.....when you figure that out who give a shit about the upside. Its all upside. We basically figured that the Gov't was going to do everything in its power to backstop us...shit i think Paulson got on TV and practically said that with his bazooka quote.....the guy gets in front of cameras and is telling you he wants unlimited power close the gap......not us directly but America as a whole....there was probably 18-24 months I was pouring pay checks into either stocks or this venture with some buddies. I kept maybe enough cash to last me till next pay day and to pay for drinks. Edit: Last thought, I considered the downside....and the downside that i considered was basically CNBC. If America got any worse, if the economy got any worse my money probably meant shit as the skills needed would have been how to load a rifle or handgun......or been more about physical fitness in all out war. So if my money was no good on the downside, like not worth the paper it was printed on, then who cares if i lost it in the markets or property...there would have had other, much worse problems to deal with...like a draft. Edit Edit: Paulson Speech was July 2008. Heres the S&P 500 since.....all upside. http://imgur.com/IcsYe93 Thats what Bufffett talks about when he says his bets on America. The govt will always step in(they have to...its in their interest...trust me) until the people loose faith in the govt..maybe thats happening now maybe not either way im just a fish caught in the undercurrent......hows that for moral hazard? Sorry if the thoughts are tough/rough/raw/unfiltered........but i think they are true...Buffett(keynes i think says some similar things also...and Louis Brandeis gets it and thats some 1930s shit...like bill billecheck going to the old used playbook....he has better sense in keeping mum..thats for sure..) basically says the same things hes just better at sugar coating them so they go down easier. I have no filter. Not very fun at parties. /rant Final point, For those that like to hedge the dollar....its no secrete that buying property is a good way to short the dollar...once or twice a year i hear someone say it...so long as you dont over pay...but even Buffett has difficulty with that......listen to the last brk meeting if you dont believe me........I didn't think about that at the time.......i guess we got 2 cherries on our sundae.......i was a moron back then. I shoulda thought of that back then.

Whats the point in Cyclically adjusting the PE ratio? I guess smoothing of earnings is nice but we all know that firms attempt to do that anyways. I really want just the raw untouched data. Doesn't anyone just add up the earnings for the S&P? Add up the price for the purchase of all 500 companies on the S&P? and divide.....I guess the CAPE works...this doesnt have to be hugely accurate. Thanks!

No. There is not enough time to "read anything and everything", even if you wanted to. Even cleonard12's set is about full time job every day. I once skimmed though the us army manual on mortars...couldn't pass a test on it,wouldn't know how to fire one off but it was pretty interesting. Amazing how much thought is devoted to such a piece of machinery. Edit: http://armypubs.army.mil/doctrine/DR_pubs/dr_a/pdf/fm3_22x90.pdf Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited One of the cool things about having a smart phone is you can always bring something to read on the off chance you are waiting for someone or there's a delay in a start time or something. I'm never bothered by waiting.

I dont have access to a Bloomberg machine or any fancy hedge fund data so this is kinda a grasp for me right now......but.... Does anyone have data on the S&P 500 PE Price Index , S&P 500 Earnings and the yield from high grade corporate bonds as far back as possible...annual data points or semi-annual(mean or weighted mean would probably be better). Dec. 31 2015 to as far back as possible would be sweet. Also, raw numbers on these three would be the best I dont want charts because i want to make my own chart. After Ive decided my hypothesis is true or not Ill share why I asked it publicly.....its nothing trade able im just shy at releasing my conclusions before ive drawn them. Exception will be made for someone who can genuinely help me...ill privately tell you why im looking for it. PM me if you are willing to share. Edit: Dividend info would for the above would be appreciated also.

Read anything and everything you can get your hands on. You never know when something might be usefull for later