dealraker

Cubs, you "invested" here? I'll bet you wouldn't sent a dime to any entity associated with the name Trump. https://fortune.com/2026/04/10/trump-world-liberty-financial-crypto-tokens-insider-loans/

Unlike Warren Buffett who considers inflation the "swindler" I think business profits over time always take inflation along with them to an equal degree, that in the end inflation is a non-event as to business value. I have not spent one single moment in my entire life worried about inflation in that it would ruin the long term value of my investments. That's over 50 years and includes the early 80's 20% rates. I occasionally make inflation comments, did that recently. I think inflation is headed higher for a number of reasons. I also think Trump is going to run deficits up like a rocket ship.

On a conceptual/psychology basis (Cubs will be coming for me on this...and he should!) the politics thread on COBF follows precisely the Trump effect on all things he's associated with. I might, oh lordy I'll surely fail with this, best describe it as Fayman's entropy. Trump progresses entropy to all things he's doing, and if he's in charge then this is trait or process is going to go blockbuster prolific. Our COBF thread just mirrors this. So chaos is increasingly developing within a system that needs some sort of order to maintain itself. Grievance, jealousy, the need to exclude, the need to extract value, gotta get even, the literally endless variables that the Don brings to his leadership are all attractive initially as one entity after another believes the things that they value are not affected- that their view will prevail. But of course nearly all things are affected, and disorder is ends up getting wings so to speak. So the outcome is simply that of sprayed out disorganization where nobody knows much - far more so than in the past when we knew things such as "Oh, stocks just go up in these circumstances so don't worry." This is has been my view but I'm much more willing to entertain the possibility that Trump based entropy is strong enough to interrupt things that we least expect. Again I find it somewhat silly that investor are so pumped to buy stocks thinking when the war ends the chaos and breakdown of the US traditional system may get put on hold for a while. My guess is just the opposite, that when and if tis war gets somewhat resolved that Trump is bound and determined to bring forth a greater disturbance to the US. This doesn't mean you don't buy stocks when they are down, it just means, "What the fuck dude, you ain't been led by the Donald before...so you haven't been paying attention to what happens when he's in charge." Feyman's entopy, sort of like the body trying to pull things together to lessen breakdown over time. It is sort of maybe guaranteed not to work over time...or something like that. My view is that Trump just hastens it all...for all of us regardless of whether we support him or not. Life is great...if you can stand it!

All accurate but if there's one poster here I'd like to personally meet (I have met two so far but politics weren't discussed) and discuss politics with, it wouldn't be the guy I agree with most always - Parsad. It would be Cubs. Parsad and I might fall asleep in discussion - we'd bore each other so much in agreement. Cubs would have me twisted in knots, challenged.

Blake just keep in mind that my bias as to Trump is extreme, I think he is terrible for the US. But I do consistently invest and I made the three largest investments of my life (the largest one time outlays, they are not big as to my overall portfolio) in the last couple of weeks. I bought more META, loaded up on AMZN, and after reading Parsad saying he bought Markel I waited a few days hoping for a fall (the stock had gone up after Parsad bought) and I got it. I'd sold Markel higher, but in tax account, so while I got rid of a tax liability I did actually lose some even buying back a couple hundred dollars cheaper than my sell. I'd lost faith in Markel management. But what I'm getting at of course is that I buy stocks in businesses I like as the out come from me beginning in 1975 is one that says do it again...and again. I despise DJT, I invest. Not related. I had more cash than at any time in my life recently. Not being a jerk here, just thinking of your youth and what I'd do at your age--- much less mine.

Yes all true with a debate from me as to being a criminal.

Actually John I get into trouble thinking. I "make it up" via a long life. LOL. (But I know Trump like -as we say in the South- the back of my hand. He just keeps on repeating the same stuff, different places in new roles, but always the same old thing.) As Munger called it: Elementary Worldly Wisdom - its so easy with the Trump card.

I was thinking the same!

It's really simple if you're able to stop running today's (but not tomorrow's) setting and 'facts' through your head. So Trump took us, he took Cubs for instance, from being our number one anti-war obsessing poster to our number one and really our only- poster who thrives on the daily number and size of bombs exploding in Iran. Think about that, the power of a man to make you post euphorically every day about unproductive bombs and the stupidity of previous Presidents when your entire excitement and joy today revolves around how many explosives have ripped Iran in the last 24 hours. That's Trump's power, he takes you where he decides. Yes without Epstein we'd have the exact same posters ranting all over the place as to how silly it would be to go to war with Iran, that anti-war was American's way and that being pulled into war was nothing but weakness that Trump would never approach. It was that he and only he prevented wars...remember? Wars were not needed with this man of all men. So markets ripped yesterday, revealing that Trump still owns the markets. But the problem with this euphoria is that the next subject Trump "approves" is likely to go just as hyper-intense and dividing (dividing and distracting is the must-have for Trump success) as this one, maybe more. I'm at a loss as to why anyone gets giddy today because he stumbled through a mine field without getting his leg removed when there are 20 more minefields awaiting him on his journey following this John Wayne impersonator, the media produced stud-muffin of all time. When you think about it, Trump only failed in the casino business because of economics. He was double over budget on those projects but still able to tell shareholders that it would be in their best interest to lace entire buildings with gold this-and-that ornaments. So he gravitates into a leadership position with absolutely no economic limits, the good ole money-printing US of A. It really is the ideal position for Trump, all the old agitating limits of finance no longer apply, he's free to wreck-hell for years, for life possibly. In the meantime apparently members of Congress are loading up on defense stocks even after their massive gains in the last few years. Praise be to Trump!

Its always the same with Trump John. He is absolutely unskilled as to building value but a master at taking value, so reflective of his zero sum beliefs. That's number one. Number two, one not to ever set aside because it is so much always the case: People who lust for Trump and people who despise him both overstate his past successes and current/future potential. Trump does a lot of harm to anything he controls - always has - and he shares that equally between supporters and haters. Posters here on COBF are raging towards one another, it makes no difference in their outcome with Trump. Trump is wise to his one skill and yes he could shoot people in the street and retain support. It begins with things like "No more wars, if I'd been President this war would not have happened." Then it is "Are you with me or not?" And it just goes from there. So predictable. The real issue for us given we are investors is where to go. I'm not certain things considered "safe" are going to continue to be a safe place, it all depends on how long Trump is in control, something people aren't willing to address realistically...yet. In 2018 I was telling my cohorts that Trump would not voluntarily leave office and he surely would not accept a negative election outcome. In good nature I was made fun of by my buddies all the way up until Jan 6.

Am I up to date and on topic?

Gradually Trump's focus will increasingly be what he can haul with him down the exit ramp (that's the exit of being President). This comes in all his endeavors because he isn't a skilled leader and gets himself in unwinnable positions. Look for more negative, combative, and revenge focus; more arrogant and even far less verbiage pretending the be working for the US by years 3 and 4.

Ole dealraker's only two predictions: Inflation slowly gunna be on a steady but sure stroll up the staircase. Budget deficits hopping on the rocket ship which is and always will be Trump's signature outcome.

Yes. To 80% of my locals here, many who are not at all poor thinkers, electing Trump wasn't just logical it was survival. Many of those openly discuss him being immoral, a fraud, the world's greatest liar, and so forth. I'd think up until this point if the election were repeated 95% would vote the same. Media headline: "Trump Lied!" Voters: "So what? What the hell else do you want us to vote for? Look what he says he stands for vs what the others say."

Wording-wording, I do you pen it well, I often fail. A simple and short try: Trump wants others to lose as equally as much as he wants to win. Most think "him" winning is or means the overall US winning. That's where I think there is some let down of the guard so to speak. Trump is for Trump, his money, power, status, his success at self-aggrandizing, etc. What Trump wants for the US of A is something I do not think is at all understood correctly. I think he is programmed to want all others to fail unless of course their role is promoting him.

No media is going to attempt selling ads without Trump being the dominant draw in the news hole. We have years of it, his remaining life, to go. Getting riled up today is as logical as getting riled up tomorrow, Trump will take you where he wants to the degree he wants and when he wants.

Beginning in 1994 I've bought Fairfax about 16 times, never selling. Boring outcome, also excessively - almost to the point of embarrassment- profitable.

Goes right along with her homely guv S. Dakota look then going full Mar-a-Lago slut to serve Trump. Both husband and wife dressing properly for the occasion.

I think Trump gains more ground with conflict and grievance than with actual responsibility and decision where he contually is one step foward one step back.

So on another subject, as to mid-terms or what happens after Trump whenever that comes, I'm also on a different page than most. I think Trump is for Trump and Trump $, control, power, media attention, etc. If you think he wants a Republican surrounding or as a next President whenever that comes. I think if he's still alive he'd rather be ranting about a Democrat than being compared to a fellow Republican. His great successful sell is the grievance, the bitch, the blame. He doesn't care about anyone no matter what their party. Yes he will try to alter the mid-term elections, but that's just him wanting control and not a grand desire for Republicans to win..

I spent as much time analyzing my buds Viking and Parsad through the years. It paid handsomely. (And that damn frustrating far-right dude Greg). Raising two high functioning spectrum kids I'll tell you that relationships with them is far more give than receive. If you don't put a lot of bold effort and thoughtful skill into this setting then it can get very unhealthy. But you can have an affect on the relationships there, you just have to set limits as to what you expect. It actually turns out very well in some respects as often they are also very successfully independent requiring little from you later on. I've never consulted Buffett output for ideas on how to have relationships. It seems a stretch to think you should be like him or Gates.

Trump owns you, he takes you where he wants. You think you (and me) are stuck in/on Iran? LMFAO, just watch. You, me, the media...we are parasites hanging on to Trump. He takes you where he wants; you talk about his choice of topics; you ignore what he doesn't want discussed. Trump changes trains as fast as a skilled Londoner on the way to work. You don't have a clue where he's taking you.

That progression I understand well. I was lucky that my step-mom had married a man who had decades of building, developing, and a real estate brokerage business experience (he was also a licensed architect) who greatly assisted me out of my mess. I'd gone from having a net worth from profits of $400k (not including my trust which was years away from maturing) to about $50k from the negative effects of that leverage. Very angry at myself.

After my stint in the bank/insurance analyst thing I was very active as a licensed contractor and built 52 houses, most custom, but on the side I was doing lakefront spec houses. Built 13 Burger Kings and a couple apartment complexes, all good. But then? Whoops! Here comes 20% interest rates and plus 12% mortgage rates... and 7 of my spec houses had several birthdays before I could sell them. This happens when my work dried up to about nothing. I was a one meal a day man for a while, luckily I was single. I went to my banker at BB and T and said, "I can pay you but it will be a bit late." He replied, "Oh, don't worry, nobody else is on time either and we sure as hell don't want your houses." Luckily it quickly fixed itself, at least here on the lake it did. So I'd gone around and used my custom home building and commercial building profits to buy lake lots that were fast appreciating. But my dumbass self had to screw it up by leveraging up with houses on these lots. Worked great for a few years then kaboom for 3 years. Lucky to escape that one. And my friend, who had no clue how little money I had, persuaded me to go into the insurance business with him. A life changing event.

Honestly I wouldn't take it that seriously John. They'll be back, neither the slightest bit wounded from their vacation.