dealraker

An interesting article: https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown

Willis had bought broker Hilb, Rogal, Hamilton (Hobbs) in 2008 or so, paid dearly, which itself was mostly a intermittent dog always selling semmingly cheap but not. The TW part is out of my understanding. The merger cancellation with AON was probably a good thing for AON.

Hard one to word and hard place to do the math and make sense of it. Waterfront lot and home bought and built 40 years ago by me, a licensed contractor. The lot, if the house wasn't on it, would sell for 15-18 times what I paid 40 years ago. With the house and structures separate from the lot...well the boat ramp, pier, seawall, extensive decks and such - all have been replaced - due to natural erosion and weathering--- I've gone backwards financially. Then add in the boats and it is backwards on steroids. Loved it from the beginning and loved it more as time passes. Then there's the cost and maintenance of the land across the street and we go exponential in the backwards mode. Overall, house and lot stuff total, worth about double to triple what I have in it. Umm....maybe double is closer. Lotta people do this stuff too. Crazy! And fun.

Angela asks, "Why are you again laughing so hard?" I respond, "Because 'again' I just read Greg's post!" 48 year ex-bond survivor here.

Yep.

In my dreams I buy a long-long-long tail insurance company with 5-8% annual premium growth that breaks even on premiums to claims and has an investments to equity ratio of 3 to 1. The investment portfolio is one stock always fairly valued that appreciates at about 10% and doesn't pay a dividend. Management adds share additions to the one stock investment portfolio from the gradually but endlessly increased float - from the profitless enterprise - all while hordes of analysts and investors chant in unison: It has no profits or cash flow It has no dividend (thus management doesn't "share") It has no return on equity

I'm pretty sure running on trails or other softer surfaces would have extended that part of my life but that may be untrue of course. I also was a tennis player, a mid level college player and tournament type so you know the story of what that does. I do lots of yoga every day and it is the foundation of my older life along with moderate weights and resistance strength maintenance. The guys who ran more than me earlier in life, who extended that well into their oder ages have all, and I mean all of them but one, had to stop. One guy ran well into his 80's though so it can occasionally be done by the human body.

I mostly mountain bike, luckily now we have 10 trails within 30 minutes drive so I generally ride a few times a week for about 1-2 hours. The time is down from earlier life but I had blood clots after an extended ride where I got somewhat dehydrated. Angela and I hike all over, we go to the NC or VA moutains for a couple night stay at least once a month. We've also hiked extensively on the coastal path in England on several trips there. We tend to hike about 5-8 miles a day, just day hiking and no backpacking.

I ran for about 32 years and miss it greatly. Mountain bike regularly and hike now. I have been the lead person in several trail building projects totaling about 50 miles. But nothing is as simple and stress relieving as running. Enjoy it all you can while you can. I had to stop because of feet, knee, and hip issues, none of which are a problem cycling and hiking.

Yep.

Some say I am about as fit as anyone ever my age at 69. If so, my view is that with age strength training is probably even more important than cardio. Of course I do both, but I do witness that those around me who do almost nothing but cardio seem very fragile. I have reduced the weights, but try to be regular. Still it is interesting that with age that the things I do regularly like cycling, mostly mountain biking, I am noticing little change. But things I do irregularly like wakeboarding, tennis, or pickleball...well my hand-eye coordination is far down as is my ability to recover from the physical stresses.

LOL...I basically went to sleep on Fairfax over the years. I'd bought pre "Prem's the Buffett of the North" media hype years and got much of the benefit of the rediculous over-valuation that came along with his designation, but then I didn't sell ---- and honestly in my life if there was ever a clear "sell" this was the case for Fairfax back then. But like Meta/Facebook too where I reluctantly bought more sub $100----well, I've slumbered down in my comfortable position out on the decks or reading nook and read COBF now for a long time and got brow-beat to hell by Parsad on Fairfax. So in small amounts I've bought Fairfax about 20 times in the last year and a half or so. I think only occasionally about the business or Prem nowadays, but when the logic screams at you and someone you admire is posting up endlessly to buy it or claim idiocy if you don't? Yea, go for it. Short of my early life reading COBF has likely been one of the most educational things for me in decades as far as investing. Spek's discussion of the financials is yet another benefit. I have enough $ coming in to make purchases every couple of weeks and East West, Cathay, and Hope all got funded again in the last couple of months. I'll update you Greg on the warehouse buy we are doing if it goes through. It it does it will literally shock you as to how cheaply we're getting it given the pressure on space locally. I haven't yet bought much of MSG...but am reading.

And it was just a few months ago I wrote Greg stating, "Well, I just made the largest investment I've ever made...into JOE." The price was $36.5 or so. Having read Cialdini's book INFLUENCE a few times I was at least aware that my own lamblasting of JOE through the years both in speech and in dictation had put me in the serious place of silly/stupid/ignorant bias and such. So I grabbed my head with my hands and twisted it around a little - then actually began some reading including annual reports and Greg's posts.

Like most, but not Greg (LOL!) and a couple others here on COBF, I have been visiting all the local businessmen informing all that getting "out" is the key to their very survival, the only way to avoid inevitable ruin. Sell now, buy back later? It seems to be less than understood by these types, the ones we are superior of - those lesser of knowledge who stay the course. I mention Ben Graham and such, but one guy enlightened me (actually I already knew but didn't spill) that the legendary buy/sell (based on all those enless stats in Intelligent Investor) guru of the past actually made half his gains with the one business he didn't sell. I slithered away into the alley to re-think my presentation with this one. The business I own a part of locally, the one of my brother-in-law and cousins (me no kids thus "they" get it too soon unfortunately)...well, we just bought another warehouse. The pressure on our warehouse collection? Well, it is getting pretty serious guys. So cramming down my throat that all is going to hell-in-a-handbasket is a tough sell to me too...as a businessman. So back and forth I sway, like branches in the breeze. As a stock investor, you know the part where I can sell and like online posters have been doing in excess since 2011...brag about my huge cash levels...that I am out or that I want out and I want out now. But as a local businessman? Hell, "in" seems more logical? New so-big-it-shocks-me plants from Simens, Nucor, Eggar, Norfolk is re-using the yard they had shut, Toyota Battery, Honda, ...all within a mile of our warehouses and 285 acres of creek-rail-road facing property? The land we were willing to sell but now we've decided to hold out because we hear some big time stuff be coming our way and the offers are from those we know who are always in-the-know. Just when I knew changewasgunnacome...it dawn't after all. Everybody is certain, it is black and white driven by endless facts and stats - on my side or the opponents one. 50 years and running, all gray to me- I am just not sure of a damn thing. You'all keep me posted.

In finance - the insatiable and endless need to be aware of all things at all times making sure not to experience hardship of any size or duration is without a doubt the definition of ongoing rookie thinking. In the long run I have watched many do this, the result is often that there is temporary satisfaction that some negative experience was avoided. Yet none doing this, at last from my watch, are the ones with the stuff hoped for in the long run. Writing well to me is almost always counter to investing well, again from what I've seen. Buffett sought help to write decently, countless hopefuls try to emulate - and the oddballs outpouring like the latest popular guy Bloomstran do get popular. But as usual he can't invest well, but does a fantastic job confusing those reading his letters looking for actual investment returns.

If you have little cash you'll be posting up stuff that proves (correctly) that about one investor in 100 gets it right going in and out of business (that's the stock market) at the right times. If you are 50% cash then of course you know the game well, there's probably a few million fear articles out there each week and tons of dudes making hay selling their wares of fear. Find 'em and post 'em online...you can feel the fear and elevated pulse rates of those reading the sellers who know very well what sells. And then...oh my lord...there are the Charlie's of the world (that's me) that really don't give a shit about any of it. And we are this way because we've fucked up trying to be something we aren't (business traders) too many times. Thus we just gave up playing musical chairs and decided to be in business at all times. Life is great...if you can stand it.

You are probably good enough Parsad to preserve capital until cheap ideas present, it seems you have a lot of patience and make very solid choices of when/what to do. My experience in life, and I'm only going on the long term of who I know that has all the money, is that few - actually nobody I know - do/does this successfully. My view from reading what you've done for years now is that it works for you. I'm probably one of the, if not the, most concentrated investor on this board. But it came by time, not choices...except choosing not to sell. It has done almost but not quite 15% for so long now, that's decades, that I'm in a state of near shock. Of course it won't last and of course down the line I'm probably looking at far lower returns. But it does slam-down the idea that buy and hold is indexing, it simply is buy and hold and either skill or randomness takes hold and runs. Owning a bunch of stocks too is not indexing as many suggest because that's where I am. As the wisest people have said, "things are variable." That's a clear as it gets in real life. But the thing that stands on its rear legs and growls at me endlessly is that I know and am in contact with a lot of wealthy people, all of whom haven't sold their stuff through time. They sustain the viscious cyles of valuation and never seem to much even discuss them. They aren't overly political, the grievance game or blame thing isn't their model.

I have owned a good bit of Erie for about 20 years. The owner of Breeden insurance agency in the NC Piedmont uses them and he was a partner of mine. I also have my personal insurance with Breeden/Erie. I am not an expert in any way as related to Erie Indemnity except to state that the business is far more steady than the stock price and that the stock seems always over priced...but actually may not be.

So you northern guys with some serious grievances...just come on down my way. Big Foot festivals (Marion, NC) are quite the fun, some - and maybe most - do actually believe in Big Foot-ers and whatnot. But then you also, if you make the mistake of going to the grocery store on a Saturday or Sunday may subject to swinging. No, not the in-the-sheets swinging, but more like in-the-streets. Huge groups of people organizing and creating their own fun events right in the middle of even upscale shopping areas, often roads and parking lots. Remember we are the bunch who have decided this stuff, while it destroys our traditions and such, is better than the other stuff. Anyway you won't be going in the grocery store on those days until the law comes to shut it down. But when the law is actually a support group - not shutdown supporters? Well, the complexity of the fun gets even more exciting.

Brown and Brown beginning of a write up - subscription is required for the bulk of it. https://www.mbi-deepdives.com/bro/

We have two 2500 category by my calculations- and subsequent recalculations in my town. Both owners, one a part owner, are in my investment club. In my 40 years of being in the club and 30 with them, no interest in the industry majors - although we do discuss their endless calls to purchase. I recently added to WTW in the $220 vacinity and BRP at $20.

As in investing, models lived successfully before me are what I try to mimic. The excesses, in this case exercise obsessions, isn't one that I've seen work well for the majority beginning in the 60's. I moderated, ain't it awful. Actually it is a blast to do less intense or time and feel like it is plenty.

My words too at 60! Now almost 70...I feel 70! Did do a 28 mile moutain bike ride in Dupont State Forest NC this week though. Back to the doc next week...again.

It is inevitable that we want to be experts on all things at all times, such that we write about hundreds of times to engrain whatever we're hyping even deeper. I was surprised, seems many business profit margins are higher with the current inflation? Gee-lee, I'm confused yet again. Guess I'll pick one of the hedge fund runners, the one who agrees with me (actually can't find one but...), and post-up his stuff. Like I wrote, in the late 1990's I met Jimmy Rogers at a local investment seminar. Tiny guy. He was on CNBC once a week back then, doing his world motorcycle tour and screaming commodities. I thought to myself, "He's the expert; I own Berkshire, AJ Gallagher, the railroads, equity exchanges, Brookfield, Markel, Fairfax, etc...and I am just another loser I guess." And Johnny Chambers was as popular as Elon is today. John was fighting the FASB on expensing stock options, he used them for all capital needs and expenses not just compensation. Some quarters this expense, that was inflow of cash, exceeded sales. And Jack? Damn he owned CNBC with 17-18% forever GE boasts. AI baby! Gunna take them big cap techs to 500% of GDP! They say. Where's Jimmy...and Jack? The whale sighting is always on the other side of the ship for most of us.

Although off topic here maybe, I also think Greg is right in so many ways. Seems the simplistic mode is too simple, that if we have inflation just crush the economy with rates that scare the living hell out of everyone. Really? We had years of thriving economy where the fed was so afraid to do anything even up to 1/16th % interest rate rise or whatnot, then obvious issues relating to all kinds of things jamming up the world...and that's when you raise rates? Really? Really? Really? Oh my! Hell, why not just shut down all the railroads for 6 months and set the prime to 20%? Then we can go back to start again, like 100 years ago or something. So higher interest rates solve the housing issue? Yeaboy, got it. Solved!