dealraker

Speck your posts are terrific so you must be well-read from somewhere. Often Angela is sitting beside me these days as I type. When I see her looking at me with the ole smush face side-eye I know I've gone off the rails with my posting stuff. This is the woman who made me more money than my actions ever made - when she said (her tax awareness), "If you don't merge you haven't done anything worth doing."

During the late 1990's I absolutely loved Bill Fleckenstein, the cynical manner in which he wrote was really entertaining. Much of it about tech accounting and valuation was correct. Then Fleck just kind of got stuck in that era, things moved on, and he became one of the most boring writers ever. The cycles of life I guess.

Find a business/investing subgroup and sell some ads to make a profit. The news hole is just that, make-it-up-as-you-go pain in the ass to get the $ flowing.

Again, drops in price that result in realizing you don't know what the asset is worth are different than "everything drops 20-25%" from time to time. Buffett himself found that out in Irish-land.

Yea when the reserves disappear we are heading towards my theme with banks. Better that, those one day smash downs, than the GE thing. I am so glad Munger finally stepped up to say something accurate about Jack Welch is his Combs interview.

Yes.

Said tongue-in-cheek style ICUMD, the words are not meant to be interpreted literally - what scorpion was alluding to and I facetiously promoted was that there's nothing within bank investing that has words available to describe the lack of knowing when the crap hits the fan. I've been a bank investor since 1975 and it gets exciting in new new ways all the time.

Bank investments are a good way to get intermittently reminded not to do this type investing. You wake up to 20% stock price drops and swear it off for years...until you (or me in this case) do it all over again. Less than 3.5% in banks and wonder what the hell got me there. Seriously LOL!

Let me see if I can word this correctly as most of the time I can't. Somehow let's leave out what Buffett and Munger state, it does go both ways with Buffett, less so with Munger as to concentration. But my experience is that those with high IQ's and seemingly incredible ability to get the details in order, to get the details right...well my experience is that they do not experience outstanding investment outcome. I discuss this often and in detail with some local guys who have some serious eggs in the basket. Basically we say the more intense the investor the more likely the pretense. We, this local group, tend to also say or state that those that present their stuff the best either in words or writing also have significant problems with successful returns. Almost to a simplistic fault those that are less sure, less of need to present themselves or their expertise...well this is the model of success. Sometimes it gets crazy, example below. So this guy named Jim, he's close to 90 now, told us in the club for years that his largest holding was GE and in the late 1990's he tried to get the club to buy GE...but we (and some of us had collaborated on our very negative GE report) avoided buying his GE recommendation. This is the same guy that I wrote about here before on COBF, the guy who got a new computer and had me and my brother-in-law set it up for him- he'd gotten so old he was having trouble logging in on his investment accounts. Jim did inherit some years ago....but damn! When we set up his computer we saw he had over $50mil in his accounts. And we also saw he had all kinds of subscriptions to charting sites. He said, "I buy and never sell...but I do buy using long term charts." Anyway Jim doesn't know what a PE ratio is. He did run his own shirt mfg plant with 300 workers off and on (he repeatedly tried selling it, but he had to finance it and the buyers always went broke so he got it back), but he always said, "I don't make a school teachers pay running that place." The building didn't even have a/c in it and that included the "office". But he wasn't the only wealthy guy in my club who could not describe PE ratio...there were many. The intense guys came and went through the years in our club. They were generally severe value investors or hyper-tech growth types. The club was basically a scrambled-egg bunch of guys who moved with the speed of sloth. We weren't exactly attractive to the intense crowd. Our investment returns as per the club organization we belonged to were in the top 1% nationwide. I write this simply to remind us that sometimes writing becomes a contest of who can sound the most intelligent at the time. Whether or not that works out depends on how long the seemingly correct logic of the time holds out to be true. There's not a soul locally anywhere close to my age that doesn't remember Byrd Motor Lines and Glosson Motor Lines both going bankrupt, not once but multiple times. The story there is of course why I never even think about the small investment I made in Old Dominion Freight Lines decades ago. This is the "YOU ONLY RENT ENERGY" stocks mandate in full bloom- trucking and oil- boom and bust. Yet I bought a small amount of Enphase a few years ago and I have quite a few rentals in the energy space that of course will never be rentals because they are fabulous growth stocks. I own almost no oil stocks; not my game. But did I know any of this when messing with energy a few years ago. Hell no, didn't even think about it. Just kept reading where the energy market cap was historically low to the total market cap. I think a 5 year old with average intelligence could understand that. Rambling. But what's the interest rate gunna be and who/what will thrive given high...or low...rates? Do we really know?

Of course I missed Microsoft and Intel amongst others in their early years, I'd surely not be discussing sloth stocks like Berk and AJG if I'd been in those rocket ships. But MSFT did weaken to a 12 PE stock and I waded in; Google(Alphabet) for some reason to me around its $400 range looked good; and I've slobbered all over the place with META including starting to buy at $11-and-something all the way up to $230 or so. And I have a slew of small technology spin-off stocks, those things that just show up in the account one day. But I do own all kinds of what I consider "techy" stocks that aren't considered tech. I think some of the tech (that I really don't consider too techy myself) such as Alphabet/Meta are such now, actually have been for sometime, that you just can't buy in stupid fashion and "come out" way ahead. Being in the right "names" in this bunch as they say is now possibly more of a be in the right starting point. As mentioned I did get some MSFT back in the later Balmer years; damn 12 PE starting point turned out ok...especially when the PE tripled. There is one stock in technology and other businesses that I think gets a very special treatment, that is the use of numbers treatment, as per being a bust-down-the-doors-screaming buy-buy-buy that I think will almost surely be a 20 year no gain thing on the chart at some point. I'll defer from listing that idea just yet, there's never a good reason to stick your hand in a hornets nest. As I ramble off tech, I don't think BN gets a fair view by its followers either. Bruce is a salesman first; value investor comes far second. I debated for years about BPY with a guy who had hundreds of followers who tormented me...me being the idiot with his hand in the hornets nest. I was not at all successful in my debate to say the least. There's a huge belief that Bruce took in BPY on the cheap. I think, and have thought for years and years, that BPY has negative value. I also am also very-very-very-very interested in upcoming interest costs for BN and that interest (so to speak) isn't about BPY or BPG at all. But I don't sell BN. Why? Because again, when I look in to the mirror I don't see a genius...that's why! LOL. Being silly. Have a good day.

Isn't that redundant?

Buffett...99% of his net worth in one stock since 1965. That's called buy and hold.

While I am in the so-called concentration camp, I do not think you initially need to be concentrated early in life to do well. My bias as to this outcome is that selling your best stocks (that's the ones you bought that eventually went up the most - whether you still owned them or not) is a huge detriment to a good outcome. I was trained by Marshall Johnson, the man who introduced my family to what he called "crackerjack Warren Buffett", towards the concept of "you can't make up with new ideas what you lost by selling great businesses." There's all kinds of ways to look at this setting, but this too is surely one of them. If you hold a bunch of stocks for the long run? Oh, it is a certainty: You WILL be concentrated. It is inevitable.

Agree completely with spek's post. The thing that I tend to promote given I'm around (not here on COBF) those who simply don't have the time or interest to "manage" a portfolio - is that a simple buy and hold will do very well over many years. The people who inherit my money won't spend time with managing their money like I do so I'm passing down a model as are the others in my family who are on the upper end of life. I spend a lot of time on Cumberland Island GA, I have a connection to one of the Carnegie descendents who still owns property there (95% of the island is a wilderness area now) and I use his/her house. Basically all the Thomas Carnegie descendents (he was Andrew's younger brother and invested with him- and at one time the world's 5th richest man) say that their forebearers lost the family money from taking it out of the market to do "special deals" of this and that, mostly real estate. Hopefully at least the 2 generations after me are in training mode not to do that. Of course I would not be here enjoying this board if everyone invested like I do. LOL, the differences are the attraction to being here.

Our builders supply and millwork businesses cater to custom build contractors. The builders supply operates and services contractors up to 2 sometimes 4 hours away; the millwork serves a wider geographical range. We are in the middle of NC. We are having our most profitable year...that's this year 2023. And last year was a barn burner as was the year before. Oh...yes to add...lumber prices cycled way-way-way down heading somewhere (up-down-up-down)? Oh yea! The above is still accurate.

Keep in mind that owning a large group of stocks doesn't mean non-concentration. I am 40% AJ Gallagher and 40% Berkshire and lengthy ownership of other stocks has made those dwarf the majority. Yea, if you hold stock for years stuff will happen to you that you'd not recognize! I have a bunch of "stocks" that I can't even identify from the spin-off's. One day a few years ago I saw Otis Worldwide in my list on Wells Fargo. I had not been following the parent company...had no clue there was to be a spin off (or two) and there it was...a small amount of Otis! I instantly felt an elevated mood coming.

So it gets sort of fragile of sorts, it isn't something that is as simple as saying, "All these famous/well known guys say to concentrate so I'm concentrated and therefore superior and successful...I outperform." I have no doubt, and I am not being facetious, that here at COBF there's a group that does move in and out of stocks and they do "outperform the market" over time. I have written this about Parsad a few times becasue I do do try to follow the things he is writing about. I'm not investigating Parsad or Greg, I am learning about businesses (something I just absolutely love doing for some silly reason) and finding things to buy myself. I was on this board, then withdrew later to rejoin, years ago...bascially have read here since its origin. I'm reading spec's stuff and several others now too. I'm a slow learner but I do learn! But, and here goes the part where I can seem harsh...but I'm not harsh if you could hear me speak instead of what I write. You can be damn sure that those who do concentrate as a whole, as a percent, do not do well investing. "They" do not outperform the market like some of the hedge fund runners that are endlessly quoted here. As a matter of fact...didn't Warren Buffett make a bet with some hedge fund runners? I believe he won...and not by a small amount. So growing up and having to deal with losing my parents I got to know the men in my community who had the "stuff" and that stuff was money and net worth. They all, and I mean literally ALL of them, bought and held stocks and/or ran their businesses. They did not buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell and such. Nor did they just own 5 stocks, they owned a lot of stocks. But there is so much more to this story. My family still owns a couple of businesses and we meet regularly, it is a multi-generational thing. We chose, and this began 40 years ago, to sell most of the family businesses and invest that money in the markets. It is a solid-strong culture and it is by-damn INGRAINED within us. Every meeting the same model, the same mandate through words pops up. It is simply: "The average American is not aware that wealth is built from holding the stocks of productive businesses." But there's more still! We are assuming, just assuming, that none of us are the superior hedge fund runners that (again) get constant media attention and cut/paste here on COBF. As my family members all say, "If you look in the mirror and don't see Warren Buffett...then you aren't Warren Buffett." We are building a culture for the next generations and luckily they are right in tune with it. Buy stocks; hold them; and by damn do NOT buy a stock you play to sell next week. Why? Because again, the proof is clear....the majority of those who do this suck as investors. And that percentage is way up in the probabilities. So if I die today those who receive the trusts aren't going to instantly pretend to be Grifin, Tepper, Paulson, Ichan, Soros, Ackman...or whoever. And to end this chant...or you may say rant...LOL. I live in a community where millions were inherited from the sale of furniture businesses, tile businesses, newspapers, textile businesses...and whatnot. Some went to real estate "deals" or start-ups....some went to tax-free income to re-risk their portfolios (I literally vomit when I write this) ... and.... They have literally lost their family money, the stuff others spent their lives building - now forgotten. Big houses? Yes they have those. You can do well owning business and staying that way. But it isn't something that is widely practiced or publicized. Hell, we are all Peter Lynch's aren't we? Ranting, not proof reading....pardon what is surely spelling and grammar errors.

I inherited 1/4 of dad's Berkshire stock. It was in a trust that I could not access and "sell" for years. By then? Well, by then selling just wasn't something I thought about because I was busy in life.

Keep in mind Parsad that over 40 percent is Berkshire and 40 percent is AJ Gallagher and I do not "manage" as I am a passive owner. I completely respect that you do manage, but both manage and no manage models work exceptionally well over time. Berkshire and several others owned since Jan 10, 1975.

Being silly. Processing all that is happening today is a vast maze of complexity. We will look back and say the typical "should have figured that out". But we can't.

Crap. There was so much screaming at me online and on TV to sell my stocks that finally I caved in and followed the madated money "manager" (read "risk management"= the risk of lower quotes) cult mandate. But D-A-M-N I forgot to sell the house! Remind me next time please. Getting lower bids means that maybe my neighbors who sold are beating the market...and me! This is absoluely u-n-a-c-c-e-p-t-a-b-l-e performance. Well, not exactly. While I should be walking the street with multi-millions in cash in a duffle bag also stuffed with pillow and blanket......foolishly instead I live in a h-o-u-s-e and own shares of Berkshire, Markel, Mondelez, Coke, Pepsi, Brookfield, AJ Gallagher, Brown and Brown, Aon, Marsh McLennan, Hershey, Tootsie Roll, Old Dominion, Ice, CME, Abbvie, Blackstone, Blackrock, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Lowe's, Willis Towers Watson, Sun Power, First Solar, ABB, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Duke Power, Illinois Tool Works, Nestle, Canadian National, Canadian Pacific, Kraft, Norfolk Southern, CSX, Union Pacific, St Joe, Honeywell, Federal Realty, Cisco, Amerisourcebergen, Archer Daniels Midland, Pfizer, Merck, Siemens, GSK, PSX, Hubbell, Republic Services, Enbridge, Omnicom, Plymouth Industrial, Bud, LHX, Exxon, Masco, Marriott, Target, Sanofi, General MIlls, Schlumberger, Becton Dickinson, Smucker, Weyerhaeuser, Excelon, Wesco Intl, Interpublic, T Rowe Price, Stag, Constellation, Avalon Bay, Atlas, Starbucks, Raytheon, Ambev, Constellation Energy, Teva, Bellring, RXO, XPO, Accelleron, Embecta, Entergy, Enphase Energy, Bank of America, International Flavor, East West, Cathay, Wells Fargo, Medtronic, Boeing, GE, GE Healthcare, LHX, Dominion Resources, Baxter, Crown Castle, Reckitt, Atco Ltd, Dover, Kellog, Advanced Auto, Costco, Molson, Sysco, Novartis, Danone, Alliance Bernstein, Archer Daniels, BCE, CocaCola Europacific, Enbridge, Lamar, Prudential, TC Energy, UPS, Unilever, Mastercard, Roche, Visa, Home Depot, Proctor and Gamble, Kellog, Johnson and Johnson, Walmart, Tractor Supply, Altria, Gilead, Realty Income, Danaher, Parker-Hannifin, Erie Insurance, BRP Insurance, CVS, Chevron, Oxy, Nasdaq, Wendy's, Domino's, Nike... That's just the ones I can name right now without looking. LOL. Exercising the mind today as you can tell.

LOL. Listened to too many of the wife's calls through the years stating to clients (actually she was emotionally screaming) that iffin' they didn't shape up she was gunna be gone. She had this restaurant owner client named Harold (high school classmate - bright rebellious dropout) who had a dive in "the fan" in Richmond, served one meal a day and had bands later in the evening. Jammed up place, people waiting in line; he paid himself (this was 35 years ago) $80k a year and made a profit above that of $120k a year. Dude bought boats and swimming pools but wouldn't do his payroll taxes. Padlocked door...became streetwalker who didn't recognize us...died. So messin' wiffin' them books ain't my game!

Yes particularly given they only count the good stuff. LOL. Just being silly.

Won't affect Brookfield...

Quick trading, even thinking of it, makes me a nervous wreck and steals my mind from any quality of life. One of my favorite Munger quotes and I giggle every time I read it: Munger: "Sandy Gottesman created one of my favorite risk control examples. One day he fired an associate. The man said, “How can you be firing me when I’m such an important producer?” And Sandy said, “Yes,” he says. “But I’m a rich old man and you make me nervous.”