dealraker

71 and 4 months...but Angela keeps pushing me to keep up!

We are messing around with hiking, history, and pubs in Germany, Austria, and Italy for a few weeks.

It never changes, Trump always drags people ordinarily sane into his abyss. While I don't get it I must face the truth that there is something in his being and delivery that completely engulfs the souls of many. As I have written, those who lust after this man grossly over-believe in his ability to fix. Those who despise this man grossly over-believe in his ability to fix. Trump is a snowball of gaslighting, a stumbling low ability impulsive man envious of success but only capable of convincing others that he's empowering them. He is the perfect bezel, Munger's term where someone's stolen from you...but you not knowing makes you and the thief go smiling along feeling richer. There is nothing here about politics, it is about an individual. The big question for me is much like that I felt in the late 1990's and early 2000's: What is the damage going to be? I was out and about telling all to sell banks in the early 2000's, obviously little ole me, a screaming idiot as to the real setting. My view is Trump will do Trump, he'll mess with it till it breaks. What is the outcome other than he gets the prize? The casino...that's where it goes. In the meantime, let's just all feel empowered: Trump's taking from them and giving to us...right?

So he went to non employee "advisor" status at 39. I've only bought a small amount of RYAN at $51 so that probably isn't festering too much into my guess that something ain't going the way we may be expecting.

Yes.

Interesting news over at RYAN.

My view too.

So along these lines I built the waterfront home I live in well over 40 years ago and with lot had $75k in it. Today it would go for well over a mil. Out of about 200 homes in this neighborhood? Not a single one for sale on the waterfront today, none at all. Could I get 2 mil? Probably. Yet...along the way there have been three times that I would have had doubts of getting $50k for the place, times when we had 40 homes for sale here with no offers - for long periods. Back and forth we sway like branches in a tree.

I have a Wells Fargo Advisors account so I get them there.

My adds to AON have been 15 times that of what I put into Baldwin. Wells sees AON as the broker today with the most upside, earnings growth and some multiple expansion. I'd agree with that, but the stock has moved some. Post last quarter's earnings the stock went down briefly and Wells was all over it. Again, I know a lot of you (and me too in 99% of instances) have little interest in what a firm like Wells would publish. But also again, Wells has been "on it" for years. A good example is their endless chant for years-and-years that AJG was not over-valued but under-valued, the correct analysis proven repeatedly. They see AJG as still under-valued. They do use cash earnings always and their stuff is always different from most. AON is seen having $21.60 in cash earnings in 2027 by Wells.

Good info.

My experience with Wells over many years is that they will accurately underweight a broker like BWIN whose stock price zoomed far ahead of logic to over $50, then keep that underweight rating for some time...often somewhat past what I would call (again) a "logical" time and valuation for change. A good case in point of this was their (for years) under-weighting of WTW even not too long ago when the stock could be bought for $200 per share at a very low relative to the market cash earnings PE. And the same happened with AON, that I bought before they changed their recommendation status from whatever to buy. Forecast earnings were my focus. So I was buying WTW in the sub $200 range a couple of years ago (ample discussion here with other involved) while Wells was evidently in process of changing their underweight to over-weight on a reasonably timely call as their forecast for earnings - which turned out to be accurate - indicated the stock should be bought. BWIN is viewed by wells to be selling today for not too much above 10 times cash earnings a couple years from today and the stock is below that which Wells values them. I think it is a logical buy. It is likely Spekulatius (Ralf) will come forth with a very accurate and deeper analysis and concern as to RYAN's financials, and he did the same (both accurate and logical) as to WTW when he sold the stock he had bought (if my memory is correct). I read all that Spek writes here on COBF and my portfolio has quite a few stocks of his recommendation. Yet with things like the brokers, and this will include RYAN, BWIN, and WTW, I accept what Spek writes as accurate yet I buy the stocks anyway. It has proven to be very profitable over time. One of the things you will find in any investment forum, and actually with any investor and that includes our heralded forbearers Buffett and Munger, is that spilling out your takes as to investing will reveal the both fragile and often (in hindsight) under or over complexity of your investing model. That I do here obviously. My "style" is something developed over decades, decades where within me I figured out that over-analyzing was easily BY FAR the most costly thinking I ever did. I'll even go so far as to mention Parsad, the man I have learned the most from here on COBF, that he has within him of course deeper understandings of things...but his delivery as to what he buys and when he buys it is quite logically simple--- and it obviously works. So that's what I use here as to the brokers. It is a personal method, not one to criticize those who go deep. Viking can write literally books on Fairfax and I read it all. But my decision to buy Fairfax over 30 years ago and to add to the stock multiple times was based on much simpler dynamics, things screaming out and perfectly obvious. Rambling. But again as I mention, any reveal of what makes any of us do what we do will over time eventually expose a weakness of thought - and this may very well be that! LOL! Not proofing this, conversation to me.

For what it's worth, I bought several thousand shares of BWIN this week at about $27.5 average price. I have little if any knowledge that would be helpful here, I simply follow the Wells Fargo writeups. I have now significantly added to WTW, AON, BRO, bought RYAN, and bought RYAN in the last few months. Insurance brokers have dominated for me the last 31 years, and that has slightly now increased. As a right brained view I've seen a lot come and go wanting deep insight as to understanding this business and these companies, most who participate obsess as to the need to pinpoint the insurance cycle. I've found it more profitable to buy the stocks and hold them thinking the relatively average valuations are actually undervaluations. LOL this may or may not be wise thinking going foward! My main holding is AJG which is well over 40% of my net worth.

Agree.

Enjoying this discussion.

I added to Amrize a couple days ago.

Interestingly along these lines is my decision this year to get the Covid and flu vaccine shots. In the past I've just gotten a bit wired up from these things, but this year I felt pretty bad for 24 hours. I had incentive though and of course just one example but briefly mentioned below. Once a week now for about 30 years, I've as we call it "ridden the road" on decent weather days on a non ebike 'road bikes' ride with a bunch from my neighborhood. Mostly older our group is fortunate to have a convenient trek along the lake here for 15 miles out and back. Pretty views and just a few slower moving cars makes it ideal, we often know most who pass us. As a group we can for a peloton where each rider can take a turn "pulling" while other riders draft, it forms a good group atmosphere where we are compelled to cooperate and flex to make it work. It is fun and fast for the group which makes it even more fun. While hard to believe, trekking along at an average speed of 20mph on a road bike is exhilarating. On this ride has always, for the entire 30 years, been a 5'9" woman named Jenny. Jenny is drop dead beautiful and powerfully athletic, and tough as nails as to dealing with life and what gets tossed her way. She and her husband just recently went on a month long trip to several countries, they both returned with the Covid virus. Neither has ever taken the Covid vaccine, she is now 58 and he 54. He is a vet of the Iraq War, a big strong man. My wife once said out of silliness, "If you'll take me to a Van Morrison concert I'll give you a threesome!" I've often, in the presence of others we know well, brought her 'popular' (with me) line up with friends, and it brings the laughs. Angela does occasionally say, "Well, I was of course just kidding...but if you get Jenny as the third I might reconsider!" Yea, even Angela says Jenny is quite appealing! Covid evidently went straight to Jenny's kidneys; they are not functioning. Ten weeks ago she was a muscular beautiful woman, today she does dialysis. Her husband is having severe respiratory problems, he's on his back in the hospital. I guess neither Jenny nor her husbands issues could be proven to be from Covid. I also guess many would say the odds were that maybe they'd just as likely get these outcomes from the Covid vaccine itself. And I don't know the stats from that. But damn what an outcome. It has shaken all of us around here, "so close to home" as we say. My two bouts of Covid have been symptom free. Angela and I haven't missed a vaccine yet and don't plan on it.

Bingo!

And he is older than dirt. "Let's paint this fossil up like a Cochise Indian Warrior with some Beach Boys blond hair" may be the make-up room giggling chant, but it ain't real, it is nothing but fantasy showtime.

Yep.

I've had similar situations in the outdoors where I spend a lot of time.

I'm not sure Right vs Left is a good starting point for gun discussion. Maybe like Covid as to right/left? A 40's man is in his own mind generally macho invincible, Covid was and is to him chicken shit fake news. A 70's man has got multiple health issues, right/left at least here they tend to take the Covid vaccines in my area as per the stats...80% Trump land. Does, for instance, where you live mean something as to guns?

We are basically cross country riding/riders/builders. But we do build and ride some technical. Here's a wood berm turn we did recently, we can do these in a couple hours with our local well-coordinated crew. I generally run the Cat skid steer and build the dirt features.

LC, yes...obsessively LOL! I also have been building both as a trail construction leader and as a simple machine operator/worker all free or volunteer now for decades. I have made money as a contractor but I always give that to the trail entity that is paying me. I basically buy and give bikes to my family of mountain bikers (my niece is president of the local bike club and my nephew is the trail construction head who I'm now "working for") and we are many. Nice bikes, not cheap, all of our bikes are top of the line Specialized S-Works. I have a Specialized Epic Evo 2022, 2022 Stumpjumper, a 2022 Epic hardtail that I use on gravel roads, and a Specialized Roubaix for the road.