Libs

Go for it, just don't charge anything. That way, it's a no-lose proposition for both of you: If he makes money, you helped him out. If he doesn't, you make him whole, and it was a fine gesture at minimal cost. This is a good idea, as long as you don't take a cut.

Ditto.

Thank God for Buffett and Munger.....who would never pass on an opportunity because of a macro fear. I would be broke if I hadn't instilled that philosophy years ago.

<The Fed will begin to at least taper and set the stage for stopping its buying sometime in 2022. That means some very heavy Treasury security issuance (with little to no Fed buying) is coming.> How much treasury issuance has the fed been soaking up? Something like a third? And that's predominantly on the short end, right?

HQI yesterday.

<A non-governmental medium of exchange is a critical component of that> A+ Mankind has longed for a uninflatable medium of exchange for centuries. It's downright primal. Governments are unable to provide this- they can't resist the temptation of debasement. Gold has worked better than anything, but has obvious shortcomings. Bitcoin may very well do the trick and supplant gold. Sometimes I think Bitcoin's origins are so bizarre - an nine- page white paper from a mysterious, anonymous source -that critics can't get over it. It sounds like a bad movie script. There is also a resistance- a mental block, almost - that a non-government currency can even work (or should be allowed). But previous moneys seem bizarre too- seashells, cattle, salt, beads. What really matters is acceptance, security, scarcity, and portability. BTC might solve all of those. The distractions about blockchain, and the altcoins mania, just muddy the waters. They are both irrelevant. For a long time I've been hearing that a better version will come along. What properties would it have that bitcoin lacks?

Thanks. Looks like the 10- year would have to crack 3% to make money on this. Seems reasonable.

<I have put on all of my TLT LEAP put positions> Wabuffo- such a great thread. Thanks. Regarding this - I've dabbled in these previously and they seem pretty expensive considering how little volatility there is in TLT. Are you going out to 2023 or 2024, if I may ask?

Funny you mention that. We sold our house in that same area, also in 1970, for $40,000 and moved to a small town in Nebraska. $40K was a fortune to us. (The house we bought in Nebraska cost $9,000..... and our neighbors later teased us for overpaying). I believe that house we sold is now worth $5MM. D'oh!

IPCO.TO Oil only needs to stay here* for them to keep printing money. Ridiculously cheap. Good management. * And I think the climate cult could drive oil MUCH higher.

The simplified version is, if all goes well, they'll be growing over a million pounds of weed in a few years, at a cost of $150 a pound. A pound of cannabis in CA goes for $2,000 a pound now. Market cap is under $500MM now. Small, obviously very speculative position. There's a thread. My contention is CA will not suffer from oversupply and the selling price will hold up.

GLASF

Greg, I think you are in your 30's, so it's entirely rational for you to swing big. You can easily make it up if you're wrong. I had a cast-iron stomach for risk... but at 59 my max is now just 10%. You know the saying of old golf pros- " I left an ounce of blood in every hole." After so many three-foot par putts, their nerves aren't what they were. That's me. Having a 40% position tank would probably rattle me now. And, I've had enough surprises to wonder if there are many 'sure things.' I'm in awe of bartenders who will bet their last $1,000 on a horse, and investors who will risk their retirement on a single position. Great topic.

Agreed. Even Barron's repeatedly ignores the undistributed earnings of the stocks, which are significant. For years when BRK was 15X Barrons was reporting 25X. Ridiculous. I am a fan of the look-through method noted elsewhere here.

I should be applauding you!

The SCHW puts doubled and the TLT calls were an 8-bagger. Talk about being right for all the wrong reasons.....

Hey GFP. I know, me too. The funny thing is, I sold XPEL at 1/3 its current price in my IRA; but I kept all the shares in my taxable account because I didn't want the tax bill. (Sold half of those today). Had the whole position been in my IRA, I would have been totally out at much lower prices. Ironic.

Upthread there was a discussion of reserve currency. Dalio put together an impressive study of the rise and fall of empires ( Dutch to British to U.S over 500 years) that ties into this. The are several key factors to consider, including military strength, education, innovation, and so forth. I found it very helpful: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio

Half of my remaining XPEL.

I know, but it's just for beer money, and completely irresistible: Everyone is (rightly) is baffled by yields dropping while we're getting 5% inflation prints; but it's been explained here on COBF that it's a temporary plumbing issue. There is no way I'm not getting some money down on this when 99% of the investing public has it wrong, and to boot, there is an end date / target to track: https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/issues We're at 633B as we speak.

As Wabuffo put it: <I think that there will be a big headfake on Treasury yields (first lower, then snapback higher).> Look at the TLT recent price action. From 136 to 142 in a month. The calls expire 7/30. After that, theoretically, rates will go up again.

If this pans out, TLT July 30 $146 calls and SCHW July 30 $70 puts will be multi-baggers. Also, I'm developing a new theory. 1) Warren Buffett has mentioned making 50% annually on a small grubstake. 2) he's super competitive 3) With Stumpf disgraced, and all that bridge time freed up, he's active in this stuff to prove (1) 4) He posts here for fun (1-4) = Wabuffo is Warren Buffett. Just sayin'.

MRCWF currently about $2.70 (Mercer Glasshouse SPAC). I bought some today. If it comes down I will buy more.

Wabuffo, I promise you - no one wants you to stop posting. The vast majority of the public and financial press is under the delusion that the Fed has sent trillions into the economy. You've led the discussion pointing out this mistake. That's huge value! Personally it has made me re-think a few things. Which leads to a question. There is much talk of bubbles being blown by the fed 'printing' / low interest rates / fiscal policy. Assuming the 'fed printing' premise is overblown, to what degree do you see asset inflation (housing, stocks, etc) being driven by government policy? Is that overstated in your opinion?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-response-to-buffett-and-munger-comments-132124035.html Cramer is eviscerating Buffett and Munger just now for their Robinhoood and ESG comments. Note the pandering from Robinhood - as if Buffett / Munger are trying to thwart young investors. They're trying to SAVE them.