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Everything posted by Gamecock-YT
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I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? Plastics.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
Gamecock-YT replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Yeah, that's what I was going to say. That'd be the two you'd want to keep. Maybe they're just treating United and American as call options at this point. -
Other issue with potentially pushing the season back is what to do about contracts that may end before the season is over. It's going to be a mess. Then you are also potentially running a situation where you end up cramming too much into the second half of the year. I think the French Open is currently scheduled to be played on the same weekend as the Laver Cup going to be played. I've watched a good bit of eSports since the end of live sports. The racing actually translates well, skill wise but seems to be a lot more accidents taking place. But not sure it's going to keep my attention in another month. But agree with the thoughts above that until there's a vaccine it's going to be a slow return of fans whether it's imposed by governments not to allow maximum capacity or the fear people will potentially have of being around large groups.
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bogleheads is usually a good source for this, typically you can't but consult the Summary Plan Description. In theory, you could do a rollover to an IRA but you'd basically be unable to contribute to the 401k going forward.
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Here’s Ackman video. He spoke for much longer so there might be an even longer video out there somewhere. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html
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He's like that about everything though. But I generally agree with what he was saying. Me too
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Ackman is on CNBC about to breakdown crying. Very passionate about this.
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We haven't even tested the December 2018 lows yet, the Shiller PE is still above 20 still. So not afraid of anything in the market. Was heavily in cash to begin with. If there's anything I'm afraid about it's my elderly relatives potential exposure to the virus.
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WTI $32 Brent $36 Face-ripper
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Bota Box - Nighthawk
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I think Coronavirus is the fuse that lit this market on fire. Especially how levered the corporates are. Weak earnings, tightening standards, unable to rollover debts. Bankruptcies. Could be the Minsky Moment.
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We've been going to Mayo Clinic for an auditory related issue. FWIW, the audiologist told my wife to absolutely not use ear plugs or noise canceling earphones. My wife used ear plugs because of my snoring! She said our brains need to be constantly hearing these background noises otherwise it will adversely affect our hearing. She said you want to use ear protection only if the noise level is damaging. I jam out on spotify all day, so it's not just the buzz of the noise cancelling going on.
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Work in finance, it was sold as it would increase collaboration but it's done anything but that...people just use earplugs when they need to get work done. End up just messaging instead of actually talking to someone which was much more common at the old workspace. I half think it was done to compete for talent with the tech industry (some colleagues mention something similar was done around the late 90's tech boom) and half think it's just corporate finding a way to get more headcount in less space to ultimately reduce real estate costs. Depends how jaded (or how early in the day I have to put earplugs in)(or if someone steals my desk since we all 'hot desk') I am on a particular day whether I tend more one way or the other.
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Work in one, Invest in really good noise cancelling earphones.
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Bloomberg or sell side write-ups.
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I'm sure many have already read it but I really enjoyed Damn Right: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger.
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Probably the same as my 2019 pick that did 123% return last year (I don't expect a repeat), Scorpio Tankers ($STNG) Same themes as I wrote about last year, but coming to fruition. Hit 52 week high last week of the year, IMO 2020 is here. VLCC tankers legs are going for 7% of market caps just for one voyage. All kind of supply constrants (Clean fuel at ports, Lowest order book ever for product tankers, Scrubber installation delays, Older product tankers switching to the dirty market and not coming back to clean). I still don't trust the management team/shady related party transactions, so might be better to make it a trade than a long term position but can see it running quite a bit higher if market conditions remain. Besides that, starting to look at quality oil companies with low debt. Kind of reminds me of the mining companies from a year or two ago where there's a push to pay down debt with FCF vs growth for growth's sake.
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33%, my 2019 best idea mentioned in the thread hit with STNG up 123%. GLIBA and LBRDA were up around 73%. Started the year with ~55% cash and short term treasuries. Ended the year at 63% cash and a sharp reduction in duration. Didn't open a new position for the entire year, turning into Rip Van Winkle. Current equity allocation is 49% cable, 31% commodities (non energy), 18% energy, 2% financials. 2019: 33.0% 2018: -15.5% 2017: 35.0% 2016: 17.3%
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
Gamecock-YT replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Trying to reverse engineer what made them attractive to BRK. ~15% ROIC on average sticks out with lots of FCF. -
The Fall of WeWork: How a Startup Darling Came Unglued https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fall-of-wework-how-a-startup-darling-came-unglued-11571946003
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wouldn't be the first time that Boeing has had an error with their coding....
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Vision Fund II to save the day.
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Real estate sentiment in your area
Gamecock-YT replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
From my place to work I probably pass 9 building cranes in Charlotte. Pretty much the only new things the city is producing are apartments, breweries, and high rises. Recession will be painful here.