CorpRaider

For a point of reference QVAL was up 23.52% in 2019 (NAV); IVAL 20.59% (NAV).

WFC

One reason I decided to sell my GM warrants and never look back was that it appears there are huge, unstated, (mostly) contingent claims of stakeholders (i.e., dealers, unions, and politicians (jobs jobs jobs). Arguably Tesla (and other new entrants) don't operate with the same huge debt-like claims on future earnings/road blocks to rational operations from the dealer, unions, suppliers, and/or governments etc...as a "national champion"/massive quasi-captive entities, at least at this point. I guess it is maybe not so different than any other industry where the incumbent can't or won't cannibalize its existing business/relationships.

Value stocks + glamour cars?

The black market arms dealers, etc...on Amazon Prime's Jack Ryan series rave about the high quality and durability of Toyota trucks. For some reason, I found this highly persuasive.

Wow. I didn't know that. Sad to hear it.

I did 77.92% in my main discretionary account (retail punter here) for 2019 calendar year, but it was almost all bounce back from quoted value decimation end of 2018 (in like AVP, BRX, COTY, and CAG (lol avon was up like 270%)). It has been a crazy little ride for a purportedly efficient market.

I've heard/read Jack Bogle make this argument a number of times ("no cash on the sidelines"), and I get the semantics but to me he was just being cute. I think its kind of like a currency exchange rate...business equity (or other assets) for dolla dolla bills and the rate changes with the flows (all else being equal).

Hopefully the new CEO won’t do write downs, like many new CEOs like to do. Yeah, he seems likely to clear the deck and there is probably plenty to mention, but after considering it, trying to dance around that seems like being too cute to me. I bought a little bit more today. Got scared it was going to run away from me/FOMO. The god of skinny compounder-bro punks has like 40% of the portfolio that he runs without size constraints in WFC. I've had some success with LEAPS + corporate transactions/special sits. Not sure if I was lucky or good...was back when Black-Scholes was (I think) more taken as gospel.

Wanted to mention a few good, cheap, legit value etfs for OP to look at: ZIG, QVAL, IVAL, DVP, RPV. You could also just do the RAFI etfs from Schwab or like DTD. You get a nice, dynamic, value tilt but still get broad exposure and low tracking error (if that matters to you).

I don't understand why commentators are talking about no deal again. He's also already negotiated a kind of not so bad Brexit deal with Northern Ireland serving as a special EU bridge/economic development zone. So they are saying now that the EU won't do a decent trade deal with the whole U.K? So then, every entity in the UK sets up a "branch" in NI and gets to completely arb the rules to their relative advantage versus the EU? Seems an unlikely outcome to me. Also, I'm not really conservative, but devolved power/governance/real federalism probably does make U.K. more anti-fragile (e.g. a Greece debt situation (or whatever) doesn't take down U.K. with the whole of the E.U.; makes it easier to address local problems; increases dynamism, etc...). I personally have always thought they are just getting out ahead of (the political union...not the trade bloc) the tide/reflective of their more dynamic and open democracy and others will follow.

What are your thoughts here? Basically the same thing as set forth here: http://yetanothervalueblog.com/ (including concerns about controlling shareholder...) But I like the funnel in for content with Simon and Shuster and the "selling of the picks and shovels to the miners" kind of strategy for streaming wars (maybe even the cost-plus producing shows they don't own isn't anathema...it works ok for defense contractors); also the single product licensing function for the company seems like a great move; they have historically totally blown it with Star Trek (as compared with Wars) imop. It's obviously cheap AF, even before any "synergies" (assuming they are soon to be destroyed). Seems like there's maybe a catalyst with Bakish talking about re-upping their buyback authorization. I also kind of like Bakish (having watched maybe ten interviews with him) he doesn't seem like a smooth bullshitter, Hollywood ceo.

VIAC, where no money has gone before.

BRX

You should probably just DCA into world index funds and/or BRK. You guys can get some not horrible options in Canada.

I think some of those CPG type companies might be a good hunting ground. Everyone thinks that because advertising is (for now) much more diffuse and cheaper, which allows for disruptors who don't need scale, but really that could be viewed as a product of dumb vc money/lose monetary conditions. I wonder if maybe power laws will take over for attention eventually for these online channels (just like the audio, analog and digital video ones before) and rates will rise and scale and actually generating cash will matter again...

Does anyone know who pays for those "listed on NYSE/Nasdaq" commercials that run on CNBC and Fox Bidness? Do the exchanges pay for that or the companies or is it a split?

He could just do a special dividend; doesn't have to create any expectation of recurrence. I think having a lot of cash around may seem real smart if and when management changes. A lot of people might panic out and big buybacks could be just the move. Also, I've read cogent arguments that the cash size needs to be evaluated relative to the size of the float/balance sheet and focus on a nominal figure is not the best way to think about it.

Is CIBC the most domestic-focused and therefore most pure play on the regulatory capture/gov't subsides of the big Canadian banks?

They seem to have top ticked it in marijuana and vaping and didn't even get control (probably a good idea...not controlling). Impressive.

I got one. Have AXP spin off or sell the "bank" and BRK acquires the remainder of the payments network it doesn't own. Then open up both sides of the network (to all/other issuers) and mark it to a MA multiple on the books by floating 5% back out in 2023 (like John Malone or some such). Where mah fees at?

EBAY

Maybe he can go on shark tank like the gopro guy.

Why now? Just a starter/foothold so I will pay attention and can get mailed copies of the reports. If I had to guess, I would expect Scharf to kind of clear the deck with expectations/problems/expenses after he has had a chance to get an inside look. That might be getting too cute (and the market probably expects that). I just keep ruminating on Munger's comments at the BRK A.M. and the fact that the god of skinny, quality-compounder, bros has like 98% of his DJCO portfolio (which is not constrained by size) in money center banks and this is clearly his favorite of those.

WFC