CorpRaider

They have pretty good guests but man that prof/host talks waaaaaaay too much. Toby Carlisle's new pod is really good.

I might have a PDF copy of that book around somewhere. I will look for it if you want. I have a paper copy. It's not that great a book, it's not all about Singleton and Teledyne strategy... lots about the author and stuff that might be less interesting to the investor-reader. Yeah, I agree with your assessment of the book, which is why I'm not sure if I have a copy/where it is.

Carry = EAFE stocks + U.S. Bonds :o

Rule, you are a good noob. I enjoy and value your contributions to this site.

It kind of does, and they aren't even competing in the actual growing/profitable segment of NA autos yet (SUVs and Trucks).

I might have a PDF copy of that book around somewhere. I will look for it if you want.

I haven't read the new piece yet, but I caught the podcast episode with Patrick O-shag-hennessy and he talked about some of his prior CAPE adjustment articles. I had basically the same takeaway/impression as you: when I read them, I filed under "reinforces legitimacy of CAPE/critiques are nits." I think I remember Buffett talking about how depreciation usually understates required cap-ex, in one of his answers dealing with the failings of EBITDA (think it was somewhere around 2000 in one of the annuals) (and also maybe in "how inflation swindles....haven't read in a while"). Will be interested to read Livermore's article, but when they said that was the takeaway I was kind of less enthused; could be interesting if they talk about amortization of intangibles though. I wonder if those aren't generally overstated; I guess they are in the huge winner, quality-compounder-bro portfolios.

Yeah, as we all know the forward multiple is going to be really, really wrong when/if GDP declines and corporate profits as a percentage of GDP/margins decline at the same time.

"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF. Posted a deep dive on this yesterday: https://lowtideinvestments.com/2019/06/18/kontoor-brands/ Enjoyed reading that. Thanks for sharing. I suppose my similar, sort of opportunity cost for a KTB position might be CPRI or TPR. Thank you for sharing your research. I have been working on KTB as well. I was far from impressed with the Q1 results KTB released today. Not a total surprise that Q1 was weak though, since VF's Q1 earnings still included Kontoor. Good example of negative operating leverage, wasn't it? Someone should probably start a thread.

"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF. Posted a deep dive on this yesterday: https://lowtideinvestments.com/2019/06/18/kontoor-brands/ Enjoyed reading that. Thanks for sharing. I suppose my similar, sort of opportunity cost for a KTB position might be CPRI or TPR.

Important x unknowable = zero value input. I personally use some trend following for a bit of $$$ to scratch this kind of itch, or really to replace the "bear shitting" by acting systematically.

Sorry if this reply is too elementary: The Zell/equity complex comes to mind, but I think he would tell you himself not to touch them/RE at this price (which kind of make me think he's not full of sh*t). SRG has some Buffett associations/imprimatur, but then again he's loaning them money at 7%. You could check out HHC and JOE. I think the incentives are at least right there... People on here (I am not among them) like KW and BAM. U could also maybe screen for REITs that have reduced float, since that would run contrary to the typical constant dilution behavior. Happy hunting and let us know if you find anything interesting.

"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF.

Next tell me what the deal is with Bunds. Now I'm giving you money for 10 years and you are giving me...what now?

Important but unknowable, but it seems plenty of other countries have cheap labor and don't force technology transfers and make you give up over half the upside, trap your capital forever, etc... I don't really think tariffs are "the devil" anymore than a VAT or border tax. The discussion of increased consumer prices impact on the economy always fails to consider "and then," if the tariff is successful the increased costs would seemingly be paid to U.S. producers with additional impacts on GDP (wages, capital investment, etc...), but yeah I agree seems most likely more moves to other places and just speeding up automation that was coming in any case.

Haha. Yeah, they left me out of the count. I just assumed everyone one this site, wisely, had me on ignore.

Interesting thread. Not sure if I already mentioned this, but I punted and decided to outsource to IVAL.

BRK.B

Intermediate term financial goals: F.U. money....followed by F.I. I very much enjoy investing but am fairly skeptical that I can (based on enduring skill) outperform free, systematic, tax efficient exposures, but there may be some behavioral benefits, so I allocate a pretty material percentage of my meager nw to discretionary accounts.

I've already used that one in the office twice. Thanks Charlie!

For nearly 60 years he's been saying his portfolio is likely to underperform in a rapidly advancing bull market and whoop some ass when the worm turns.

Maybe, but I think he called them "work-outs" back in the p-ship days. Could be talking about like the jay pritzker deal with CEFs or something.

Could have meant like activism. Like Sanborne maps or even the initial Berkshire; Sanborn: you have a bag o cash and securities of $20 a share (for example) and stock is trading at $8. How about you distribute some $$$ or I clean this place up. If I spoke Japanese I would probably look there and talk to some japanese lawyers and politicians about cleaning up some of the corporate recidivism. Maybe you get away with it if you were dealing with small fries. Charlie told us, another example would be to do what Li Lu did.

I must have done a poor job communicating. Assume the margin rate is +5% (you are getting paid to borrow) if you are operating an insurance business as a .95 combined ratio, it is not callable, or at least totally uncorrelated. The thought experiment is how does it not outperform the index by 1.X times the leverage assuming positive equity returns and that the insurance operation doesn't get so big that it starts writing AIG trash (which I think would be the theoretical limit on that side of the B/S; on the other side it might be that you become so big you make huge market impacts when you move $$$). [so maybe under that scenario you are looking at a 12-16% CAGR for a long-ass while versus historical 20 something.]

Ok, so I was working on a post that was just going to be a simple thought experiment about BRK versus the S&P 500 going forward and questions around size and of course then I get bogged down citing Buffett partnership letters and Charlie's interview with the Journal (which was fabulous BTW) and then I notice a guy at the annual meeting kind of asked them about what I was thinking, but Buffett basically pretended (imop) not to follow the question about financial leverage/float. So, if you had new BRK and it had $500 billion in assets and you invested everything in the S&P 500 and then just applied the leverage (1.6x?) from the float would you not outperform over the long term assuming positive returns in the S&P 500 and free or negative costs to the float? What would be the logical limit of this? Maybe growth until the insurance operation keeps growing until it becomes too large and you start writing money losing business/calls on capital that coincides with a sell off in the market/economic recession (i.e., removing the two assumptions above)?