CorpRaider

I feel like CAPE without all these Seigel adjustments picks a lot of that up too (for macro purposes). Like, Jeremy...they don't need any help inflating earnings bro...incentives matter. "Yeah everyone dumped in huge losses in 2008, so let's exclude that...no, let's not do that mmmmkay?" Going to look at the longer stuff to see what he says/thinks about float. i.e. if the longer-term recent run rate BRK ROE is 10% what about the float/holdco leverage (that's kind of what I've been thinking).

I always think someone could/should take over a crappy, small AUM, closed end fund (at a discount) and put the funds in a low-fee index replication that you lever with a cheap, non-callable preferred.

Agree. After an initial period of moderate infatuation, I have basically written them off as verbose "bear-shitters." I try to limit exposure to that kind of content.

Personal account investments and performance.

I think that was where Tom Cruise worked in Cocktail.

Yeah, no doubt they have not but I doubt he would find that dispositive, but would be interested if he's updated the view. The CAGR (from the early 70's on) portfolio visualizer for midcap value is in the neighborhood of 13% after a horrendous (but not unprecedented) decade. The 5 and 10 year rolling return/slices are putting up average returns of around 14%; so you add a little bit of sizzle beyond a dumb academic screen (it's spliced ken french b/m and vangard midcap value, using book, p.e, divvy, and p/s blend) and it seems like a defensible position for him to take....if he wanted.

I wonder if he has reiterated this since 2010: "If you do what Ben Graham or Tweedy Brown does, you will make 15-20% returns but you wont make the huge returns of Buffett." I guess it would need to be adjusted for current nominal rates/returns on capital and then add the equity risk premium plus whatever outperformance, but I bet (in fact, I do....with $$$ ;D) he would still agree with the point/analysis over the long-term.

Would you say this could serve as an approachable "gateway book" to like the Kahneman and Tversky, et. al. work on cognitive errors and system 1 versus system 2 thinking, etc..?

AlphaArchitect has some sophisticated and correct (in my judgment) pieces discussing the issue on their site.

Bear shitting here, but maybe the transmission mechanism to EAFE stonks is messed up because of sickly banks and regulations and whatever has prevented their corporate sector from dis-intermediating their banks as much as has been done in U.S. Or maybe its because their governments/unions are ckblocking it like with the Renault deal. Japan just needs Gordon Gecko/1980's guy to bash some corporate heads, imop. RAFI has EAFE CAPE @ 16.4 (29th percentile of observed historical values) and EM @ 12.8X (17th percentile); US is at 54.6....so there's a little distance there, even assuming the foregone conclusion that Beyond Meat makes Nestle a zero. haha

They have pretty good guests but man that prof/host talks waaaaaaay too much. Toby Carlisle's new pod is really good.

I might have a PDF copy of that book around somewhere. I will look for it if you want. I have a paper copy. It's not that great a book, it's not all about Singleton and Teledyne strategy... lots about the author and stuff that might be less interesting to the investor-reader. Yeah, I agree with your assessment of the book, which is why I'm not sure if I have a copy/where it is.

Carry = EAFE stocks + U.S. Bonds :o

Rule, you are a good noob. I enjoy and value your contributions to this site.

It kind of does, and they aren't even competing in the actual growing/profitable segment of NA autos yet (SUVs and Trucks).

I might have a PDF copy of that book around somewhere. I will look for it if you want.

I haven't read the new piece yet, but I caught the podcast episode with Patrick O-shag-hennessy and he talked about some of his prior CAPE adjustment articles. I had basically the same takeaway/impression as you: when I read them, I filed under "reinforces legitimacy of CAPE/critiques are nits." I think I remember Buffett talking about how depreciation usually understates required cap-ex, in one of his answers dealing with the failings of EBITDA (think it was somewhere around 2000 in one of the annuals) (and also maybe in "how inflation swindles....haven't read in a while"). Will be interested to read Livermore's article, but when they said that was the takeaway I was kind of less enthused; could be interesting if they talk about amortization of intangibles though. I wonder if those aren't generally overstated; I guess they are in the huge winner, quality-compounder-bro portfolios.

Yeah, as we all know the forward multiple is going to be really, really wrong when/if GDP declines and corporate profits as a percentage of GDP/margins decline at the same time.

"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF. Posted a deep dive on this yesterday: https://lowtideinvestments.com/2019/06/18/kontoor-brands/ Enjoyed reading that. Thanks for sharing. I suppose my similar, sort of opportunity cost for a KTB position might be CPRI or TPR. Thank you for sharing your research. I have been working on KTB as well. I was far from impressed with the Q1 results KTB released today. Not a total surprise that Q1 was weak though, since VF's Q1 earnings still included Kontoor. Good example of negative operating leverage, wasn't it? Someone should probably start a thread.

"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF. Posted a deep dive on this yesterday: https://lowtideinvestments.com/2019/06/18/kontoor-brands/ Enjoyed reading that. Thanks for sharing. I suppose my similar, sort of opportunity cost for a KTB position might be CPRI or TPR.

Important x unknowable = zero value input. I personally use some trend following for a bit of $$$ to scratch this kind of itch, or really to replace the "bear shitting" by acting systematically.

Sorry if this reply is too elementary: The Zell/equity complex comes to mind, but I think he would tell you himself not to touch them/RE at this price (which kind of make me think he's not full of sh*t). SRG has some Buffett associations/imprimatur, but then again he's loaning them money at 7%. You could check out HHC and JOE. I think the incentives are at least right there... People on here (I am not among them) like KW and BAM. U could also maybe screen for REITs that have reduced float, since that would run contrary to the typical constant dilution behavior. Happy hunting and let us know if you find anything interesting.

"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF.

Next tell me what the deal is with Bunds. Now I'm giving you money for 10 years and you are giving me...what now?

Important but unknowable, but it seems plenty of other countries have cheap labor and don't force technology transfers and make you give up over half the upside, trap your capital forever, etc... I don't really think tariffs are "the devil" anymore than a VAT or border tax. The discussion of increased consumer prices impact on the economy always fails to consider "and then," if the tariff is successful the increased costs would seemingly be paid to U.S. producers with additional impacts on GDP (wages, capital investment, etc...), but yeah I agree seems most likely more moves to other places and just speeding up automation that was coming in any case.