CorpRaider

It seems Burry was right, timely, causal, on the small cap value opportunity. I think he's probably right that there will be more flash crashes and the like in the future due to index etfs; maybe a really nasty one to shake loose some of the money. One thing I would like to ask him or others of similar talent: "How could securities lending by index funds blow up?" It is purported to be risk-free lending by many but I've never known such a thing. I just wonder as more marginal/desperate players get into offering "free" index funds and try and make up the profits on securities lending, what risks (if any) lurk?

Glamour by any other name.

R.I.P.

It is sort of like Teldar Paper before Gordon Gekko.

I am currently reading How Kids Succeed, by Paul Tough. So far it is a decent narrative survey of some of the theories/research in the field of achievement, educational and otherwise, (that the thread seems to have evolved to discuss) by like Angela Duckworth (grit) and James Heckman (University of Chicago). Based on comments, some of you might enjoy it as well.

For me it depends on how like intrusive/unrelated to the topic of the podcast it is. But in this podcast world, I damn sure have 10X awareness of the existence of zip recruiter. Usually it is more hassle to get my phone out and fast forward through them unless they stack a bunch at the beginning of the podcast of the same add is running every week and it like a minute long.

One advantage he didn't mention. WEB should compound in the teens and he doesn't charge 2 and 20....awwwwwkward.

Had an outstanding limit order fill on $TPR...kind of conflicted about that, but that's probably why I let system 2 put the order in some time ago. :'(

The fact that the debt is not dischargeable is insane. There needs to be a system with some accountability for the schools and the lenders. Most of the schools are borderline committing fraud with the statistics they publish and upon which these children (or adults with massive information disadvantages) are making huge financial decisions (with the help of advisors compensated by the recipient of the loan proceeds). Higher education needs to be totally disrupted. The financial incentives are totally perverse and so....a clusterfk is born.

There was a guy on that "Millionaires Unveiled" podcast a few weeks ago who had some rentals that were exclusively Airbnb's targeted at mountain bikers in a region of Arkansas. They didn't get into a ton of detail, but you might find it interesting.

$LUV, $FIZZ

U said retail so: Series I Treasury bonds have a .50% real return through November (I think). You can buy $10K per annum ($10K per soc # for a married couple). Get the real return rate + a floating inflation indexed rate. Usually better tax treatment (and some other advantages) than TIPS, but obviously limited by size.

Also, fascinating discussion of the GIS proxy/perverse incentives. I've avoided that one just because I thought management seemed too slick/smarmy via conference calls (even before the acquisition of blue buffalo...I actually kind of liked the Annie's acquisition but some of the decisions make more sense now with his discussion of the incentives); nice to have something more concrete to look at...will be helpful to me in the future. I also don't invest in any company where they use the term "learnings."

9-10% with lower risk (not zero obviously given what we've seen over the past few years in utes) is not a bad hurdle rate in today's environment is it?

That CEF that the SEC made them sell. Source Capital; the details of the saga and their influence on the fund afterwards (I think it crushed it for a long time but was absorbed into another fund or moved over to like a cigar but Rommick style over the past few years due to retirement of managers or something).

I feel like CAPE without all these Seigel adjustments picks a lot of that up too (for macro purposes). Like, Jeremy...they don't need any help inflating earnings bro...incentives matter. "Yeah everyone dumped in huge losses in 2008, so let's exclude that...no, let's not do that mmmmkay?" Going to look at the longer stuff to see what he says/thinks about float. i.e. if the longer-term recent run rate BRK ROE is 10% what about the float/holdco leverage (that's kind of what I've been thinking).

I always think someone could/should take over a crappy, small AUM, closed end fund (at a discount) and put the funds in a low-fee index replication that you lever with a cheap, non-callable preferred.

Agree. After an initial period of moderate infatuation, I have basically written them off as verbose "bear-shitters." I try to limit exposure to that kind of content.

Personal account investments and performance.

I think that was where Tom Cruise worked in Cocktail.

Yeah, no doubt they have not but I doubt he would find that dispositive, but would be interested if he's updated the view. The CAGR (from the early 70's on) portfolio visualizer for midcap value is in the neighborhood of 13% after a horrendous (but not unprecedented) decade. The 5 and 10 year rolling return/slices are putting up average returns of around 14%; so you add a little bit of sizzle beyond a dumb academic screen (it's spliced ken french b/m and vangard midcap value, using book, p.e, divvy, and p/s blend) and it seems like a defensible position for him to take....if he wanted.

I wonder if he has reiterated this since 2010: "If you do what Ben Graham or Tweedy Brown does, you will make 15-20% returns but you wont make the huge returns of Buffett." I guess it would need to be adjusted for current nominal rates/returns on capital and then add the equity risk premium plus whatever outperformance, but I bet (in fact, I do....with $$$ ;D) he would still agree with the point/analysis over the long-term.

Would you say this could serve as an approachable "gateway book" to like the Kahneman and Tversky, et. al. work on cognitive errors and system 1 versus system 2 thinking, etc..?

AlphaArchitect has some sophisticated and correct (in my judgment) pieces discussing the issue on their site.

Bear shitting here, but maybe the transmission mechanism to EAFE stonks is messed up because of sickly banks and regulations and whatever has prevented their corporate sector from dis-intermediating their banks as much as has been done in U.S. Or maybe its because their governments/unions are ckblocking it like with the Renault deal. Japan just needs Gordon Gecko/1980's guy to bash some corporate heads, imop. RAFI has EAFE CAPE @ 16.4 (29th percentile of observed historical values) and EM @ 12.8X (17th percentile); US is at 54.6....so there's a little distance there, even assuming the foregone conclusion that Beyond Meat makes Nestle a zero. haha