John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Fiscal deficit of 6.3% of GDP means that if the Fed keeps interest rates high it’s not going to do much. It’s like driving full throttle while pulling the hand break.
2 hours ago, Sweet said:It's larger than I thought, they need to cut spending. It doesn't have to go to 0% of GDP, but it needs to be below GDP growth.
Please don't worry too much about this, because it really does not matter that much, because when the music may stop at a future point in time, it will also be like peeing in your pants, so there will be no fire.
[Posted by a CoBF member who is a citizen in a nation with order in the pencil case, running at a surplus.]
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13 hours ago, schin said:
Are there any segments that were removed in the latest editions or only present/discussed in the early editions?
Yes. Segments have been removed between editions.
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I's actually the scope of my work in progress Ph.d. thesis in the works now for many years, that I'll deliver and submit to the University of Southern Denmark at the given moment when done for approval : Know anything - down to the tiniest detail of an area so specialized that it does not really matter to anyone but yourself.
The thesis is by now called 'A comparative analysis of the editions of 'Of Permanent Value' by Andy Kilpatrick 1994 - 202x' Because of requirements for written documention, I now expect the thesis to contain ~ 50,000 pages. [J/K]
So much for being a Berkaholic.
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Please go somewhere else for discission of US sealed border.
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12 hours ago, Maverick47 said:
Agreed! Thanks to @John Hjorth for reaching out to Andy!
You're welcome, @Maverick47,
When the new edition may be out, I personally think it may be time for some serious scalping & reselling!
For now years, I've tried to pick up the blue edition that was released between the red 2017 World Wide edition and the green 2020 Elephant edition! Never met a second hand price that I would consider acceptable.
-Furthermore, Mr. Kilpatrick could in my view make a killing by reprinting all earlier editions.
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I stumbled on this post [in Danish] from the Danish LinkedIn member Poul Skadhede on this very day today :
It translates to English like this :
I think it says a lot about the local sentiment here in Denmark by now. April 9th is the date in 1940 where Germany occupied Denmark as an integrated part of Germanys occupation of Norway.
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Mr. Skadhede is a consultant by profession and serves as professional board member. He is also as the largest shareholder involved in a group delivering consultancy and naval design services to shipyards and shipowners and -operators, including navies. [Originally formed as a spin off of the design department from now closed Odense Steel Shipyard A/S, formerly owned by A.P. Moeller A/S.]
That group, called Odense Maritime Technology A/S, was responible for the design of the AOPS Actic Patrol Ships [ Harry DeWolf class offshore patrol vessel ] built at Halifax Shipyard, Halifax, ,Nova Scotia to the Royal Canadian Navy.
So Mr. Skadhede is personally biased. But I personally think his views have merit.
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3 hours ago, Luca said:
Point taken.
Russia is a good ally to China and basically fully dependent on them now, which is good for China and Chinese investments. More natural resources for cheap and independent from the west.
3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:@John Hjorth you seem like a pretty chill Dane. Do you own any Chinese companies or are you not entertained? I am not interested in the political stuff, only the returns.
Thank you for the kind way to respond on my words, @Luca & @Cod Liver Oil,
I may here on CoBF appear sober or chill most days I post, but what's going on inside my head can't be really be described by representing my mental state most days as I'm sober or chill most of the time.
Simply because I'm not, while I'm forcing myself to stay about fully invested all time long term. However I think I'm gradually getting better at it.
It's about a large position in that Danish pharma every media is writing about, here now at above 20 per cent of total portfolio, which for me personally not is easy to sit on.
So I already really have my mouth, hands and mind full with risk, that I try to relate to on a continuing basis.
Also, It has become clear to me, that I likely possess a personal propensity to underestimate political risk related to foreign investments, based on my experiences in 2020 with Russian stock investments [Gazprom, Lukoil & Sberbank], however losses not cribling, but not forgotten.
- And as always I may change my mind any day. ...
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So, good luck with China! [sincerely meant!]
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You guys posting here lately appear to be derailed or confused -, directionally, thematically and / or geographically.
- This topic is about China, investment related.
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After exiting a small position in DANSKE.CPH [Danske Bank A/S, Denmark] in January 2015, I started a small position in the bank again today.
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I've got this reply within 12 minutes of sending my own e-mail :
QuoteJohn, Thank you for your very nice note. You are right that the 2020 edition was the last one published. Have been working on the next one ever since, but it’s getting to be slower going. Like to get another edition out this year or next. I hope. Not a great answer, but it is in the works. Thanks for writing. All the best, Andy
To me personally, this is great news.
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Based on the exchange in the CoBF Berkshire Hathaway Forum, topic 'General News' lately about this book, I have now asked Mr. Kilpatrick if he has discontinued his activity with revising the book to new editions for selfpublishing.
It would certainly not come as a surprise if that actually was the situation, and he thereby has decided to call it a day. Let's see if I get any reply to my e-mail.
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10 hours ago, OracleofCarolina said:
I have never seen any stories on that, is he still making those books?
10 hours ago, gfp said:I don't think he still makes the books. He tells some stories about the margin and first BRK share purchase in '83 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6bPl1IXlhs
I agree with @gfp on this assessment.
The time span between each edition was on average a couple of years, give or take, and with some exemptions.
The so far last edition of the book was the 2020 Elephant Edition :
Topic about the book in the CoBF Books forum : Of Permanent Value - Andrew Kilpatrick.
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1 hour ago, juniorr said:
anyone buying HUY / UNH
For a specific reason [<-
], there exists no separate topic in the Investment Ideas forum here on CoBF about UNH. [ I suppose you here by UNH mean - UnitedHealth Corporation Holding Inc.]
There is to me personally no doubt it's a good company.
So please always feel free to start a new topic about UNH here on CoBF in the Investment Ideas forum for discussion.
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Also, a belated welcome to CoBF from me, @juniorr!
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12 minutes ago, Saluki said:
... The money for the Dilly Bars sold downstairs are going to charity so if I'm not there please eat two or three on my behalf. Take one for the team!
You're just our kind of guy!
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Thanks for the posts in this topic so far.
And especially thank you to @KCLarkin for bringning the existence of the book about Mr. Rochon to my attention, I was personally not aware of its existense.
Amazon : François Rochon - Le parcours singulier d'un investisseur d'exce Paperback – Jan. 31 2023 .
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Over the years, Giverny Capital and / or François Rochon has been brought up for discussion here on CoBF several times related to interviews etc.
Here, I'm taking the initiative to start a separate topic about all kind of news related to Giverny Capital and / or Mr. Rochon, because I think we miss such topic here on CoBF here in the General Discussion forum.
Mr. Rochon [or Giverny Capital, for that sake] hasen't been mentioned a lot here on CoBF, but it has happened now and then.
Personally, I like a lot that he doesen't appear self-promotional, and his track record is to me really impressive.
In my personal opinion, we should talk and discuss more about non-promotional & humble money managers with good track records and their doings, than about self-promotional money managers with mediocre and louzy track records.
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For starters :
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12 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
You can't talk about one of Elon's companies anymore without politics coming up. ...
Q. E. D.
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What is your souce for the letter from Chubb attached to your last post? -Thank you in advance.
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21 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
... All I can say it is that the disclosed 2023 earnings numbers for BN at group level was nothing to write home about. Less than USD 1 B to BN shareholders after taxes, minorities shares of results and preferred dividends on a BN group equity beginning of 2023 of approx. USD 30 B, indicating a progress of less than 3 percent. ...
BN 2023Q4 Supplemental Information, p. 26 : The earnings number is USD 969 M. [ Link ].
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Thank you,
All I can say it is that the disclosed 2023 earnings numbers for BN at group level was nothing to write home about. Less than USD 1 B to BN shareholders after taxes, minorities shares of results and preferred dividends on a BN group equity beginning of 2023 of approx. USD 30 B, indicating a progress of less than 3 percent.
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Related to @Spekulatiuss last post above :
On 10/12/2023 at 1:04 PM, Spekulatius said:@John Hjorth Open ended credit funds without carry are essentials. CEF‘s. They won’t end badly for BX or KKR, but they will end up badly for their clients (meaning they will trade a discount to NAV), if they trade at all in some secondary markets.
I'm sorry for no reply from me to this post of yours now months ago, that somehow may skipped my attention. Here is at least my very late answer : Yes, your are right [, and that actually also what was my intent to express : LPs - BNs socalled partners will end as the patsies, if this seismisc movement into private credit evolves badly.
But if the seismic movement to private credit ends up as a flop, BN shareholders won't get fat either [ perhaps Flat[t] ].
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4 hours ago, Gregmal said:
It’s amazing all over the absolute obsession every outlet and market participant has with talking about “the magnificent 7”…like all consuming obsession. Recently I’ve even seen articles about “Mag 7 underperformed the market since mid January”…and it’s just like wtf is wrong with people? Takes Bruce Berkowitzs “ignore the crowds” slogan to another level…like any guesses how many of the people consumed with Mag 7 analysis(you know, as if they all have some proprietary edge over everyone else and their mother who’s staring at the same 7 stocks….” Are actually outperforming or even sniffing acceptable levels of portfolio performance? A good many Id gander probably don’t even have proper market exposure….
This is where we eventually mature and see how investing is easy if you just do your own thing and stop looking at and for the same exact shit everyone else looks at and for…
1 hour ago, Gregmal said:But also, imagine not even buying the rock…but sitting around obsessing over the rock….whining about how only 7 particles of the rock are the only reason anyone wants the rock, wallowing about how rocks will go out of style, and then spending even more time wondering if you should short rocks, and getting mega excited every 5% pullback thinking this is the beginning of the end of rocks? Meanwhile somewhere else there’s trees paying you $12 instead of $3.56, and ponds with fish that produce $15? Pretty stupid to be focused on the rocks, eh?
Thanks, Greg [ @Gregmal ],
Your posts called for a smile, and especially the last one, here also quoted above, made me chuckle!
-To keep it simple : It's true.
There are still a lot of things to do that appears interesting, if one actually looks around, not even if one is - for one reason or another - restrained to a certain investment style, as alternative to stay flexible.
There is still something to do for everyone, if someone asks me [, which nobody does].
CoBF related that translates and convertes to : More posts in the Investments Ideas forum, please! [, as an alternative to i.e. posting in this topic!].
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16 hours ago, ValueArb said:
Blocking EU aid to Ukraine, dragging feet on Russian sanctions, trying to block Finland and Sweden from NATO, trying to block Ukraine EU bid, cozying up to Putin, etc, etc etc.
I'm all for reconsidering once Orban is out of power.
This is to me personally not a satisfactory reply to @Lucas polite request for elaboration of your personal postion [and I suppose to many other CoBF members] by posting "... cozying up to Putin, etc etc etc."
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Please just start a new topic in the general discussion forum here on CoBF about "Germany out of NATO", and I'll personally take care of getting it reported to get it ditched.
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NATO News [March 7th 2024] : Sweden officially joins NATO.
It is to me the most important step for the future of the Nordic countries in regard to Security policy, combined with Finland joining NATO on April 4th 2023.
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On 3/2/2024 at 3:05 AM, Luca said:
We also need to include the lurkers who are here via guest visit!
What do you derive that from? Lurkers [Honestly, I personally prefer the terms 'visitors' or 'guests' in this context] can't post here on CoBF, so what is the logic behind your assumption that they have voting permissions, while no posting permissions?
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted
Here is no need to compilicate thighs here with regard to lending. Also, I don't think the lending needs more coverage here on CoBF.