Spekulatius

I guess there is the question about industries vs companies. While some companies may be misunderstood, it is quite rare that an industry is completely misunderstood. I think one is more likely to find misunderstood industries where there is very little coverage from the investment community, which could be an overlooked sector, or a sector where the industry changes/transforms and those few analysts/investors that cover it, don’t quite grasp the change. I think some recent changes that I am aware of are the subscription model for software (Adobe, Microsoft; and separation of franchising/branding from property management and ownership in the hotel sector (HLT, MAR benefited from that).

Weather apparently doesn’t count.

This article on mobility is fantastic, imo. I am surprised that Germany does so badly. it is also obvious that the Scandinavian countries Sweden and Denmark are doing something right. Think about this - the top 0.1% own as much than the bottom 90%. A lot of folks in the bottom have no chance to move up. Why would they not eventually get the idea to just take what they can’t earn, but electing a someone which is willing to do what it takes. These trends are decades in the making and there isn’t a quick fix, imo.

But that's in theory. In practice, I've experienced countless times when I bought a low P/E stock, and stock kept declining, and a few months later the company reports shit earning and suddenly, my P/E is much higher. Company blames it for some one timer events, so I held on, and then another quarter later, the earning is even worse--- It was negative now! So there isn't event a P/E that I could value on, and now management continues to blame some one timer events. Now I am down 50%, with no margin of safety with me. ::) Well then it wasn’t a “good” stock. It was a stock that looked better than the fundamentals actually were when bought. You are correct, that this happens and Mr Market should not be underestimated. Not every contrarian buy is a good one. However, often Mr Market knows nothing and stocks go down for no reason or the decline is in no relation to the fundamental issue causing it.

Theoretically, if you bought a stock cheaply, it should not matter if the market agrees with you or not. A good stock should work even without rerating.

EUK3.F (Eurokai). Shipping berth/ port operator operating harbors in Germany, Italy and a few other countries. Very solid balance sheet, cheap and illiquid, the way I like it. IBKR - bought a few shares in today’s selloff. Might just be trade. I continue whittling down my pipeline holdings as they march towards fair value.

It really needs a “Brexi dump”, hopefully neglecting that the bulk of its business is in the US.

How can they make 12% unlevered returns. Their cap rate, based on invested capital looks to be around 6.66% (~$400M NOI / $6000M invested capital ) and lease escalation are < 2% annual. That’s gets at most an 8.5% total return, neglecting certain costs (renovations etc.)

Yes you can, as long as the shareholders you screwed and the new shareholders are different. It happens all the time.

Bankruptcy is easier for managment than dealing with an activist. I don’t think that management owns enough stocks to care if shareholders get wiped out of not. Now it’s “calvinball“ game in bankruptcy court.

Yes, I love the “Expanse” and the “Man in the High castle”. Babylon Berlin is on my list to watch.

Forget what they say, just see what they do.

What damage?

^ Good ideas above. I like the idea to get other employees involved. It certainly seems like you will need some sort of a partner.

It’s is easier to sort out liabilities in a bankruptcy to some extend, so what prevents PCG from filing? I don’t think that managment owns a lot of stock, so they wouldn’t care as long as they are paid. Same with employees. Also, is it conceivable that the state would bid on PCG‘s asset in bankruptcy? It’s a state regulated business to begin with already and the state would have a lower cost of capital than any private entity, if they issue bonds to pay for this. That would solve the issue how to backstop the business in the future. I know tiring contra what most people here believe, but I believe infrastructure assets can be well run in public hands and at lower cost, due to cost of capital advantage.

That sounds like an extremely impressive number for what I understand is a multi-billion dollar fully-hedged cigar butt flipping fund... Most of the time the returns are front loaded and when the AUM get larger due to funds flowing in, Th returns become subpar. I wonder about dollar weighted returns with these hedge funds. It's a solid record. I think it's especially solid given that he holds large amounts of cash and his risk aversion. The overall performance numbers (strictly speaking on performance) are good but not crazy good. I believe it's lower now. I know someone who had the numbers. He made the majority of his returns in 2002-2003 and in 2008. He killed it during crashes, but outside of that it's been middling. I'm not really sure they're a cigar butt fund either. I know they're heavy into debt, and heavy into private investments.

In Amazon video: The man in the high castle Viking Jack Ryan Hannibal Home fires Downtown Abbey Endevour White Chapel Yes, I am a sucker for British TV Netflix: Dogs of Berlin The Vietnam War ( Ken Burns) Bodyguard House of Cards Peaky Blunders Battle star Galactica series Fargo ( both the series and the Original movie) Lock, Stock and two smocking barrels No country for old men As memorable movies, I enjoyed Wes Anderson Moonrise Kingdom and Grand Budapest Hotel as well as most Coen Brother movies . I also enjoyed the Starwars flics Rogue One and the Last Jedi

I think the discount for LBDRA relative to CHTR is about 10%, which is fair, but not great considering additional overhead expense at LBDRA. I don’t like GLIBA’s operating business and I think they overpaid for the Alaskan telecom business, hence I avoid this stock.

Adding back some CHTR and LBRDA

The loan designation mistake looks like a very basic mistake and one can only conclude that they are not competent to run a bank. I think their regulators will come to the same conclusion. I have seen these innocent “trading updates” before where it sounds like a small hiccup while the company is blowing up. I guess it’s British understatement.

I heard at work that the process to grant export licenses is currently stalled (import licenses too). This affects a lot of high tech goods, but also services. Over the long run, this could severely affect trade. Even the import/ Export US government website is currently not working in some areas. Funny how an existing website stops working with a government shutdown. The inability to get export licenses probably could cause lost business/delays and weakness a few month down the road.

Hi. I've been looking a bit into that. Seems very interesting. Have you seen a decent writeup anywhere or mind to share a couple of points? What's obvious is the deposit growth, which is incredible. The culture is based on the Commerce Bank model, that Vernon Hill "invented" in America. The culture is real - I can tell you that. Both customers and employees love this company. You have 56 "stores" going to 100-130, roughly in 5-6 years. The "store model" is totally repeatable - and UK will eventually support, perhaps, 200 stores. There are structural reasons for the growth - by that I mean - the UK banking sector is being forced to shrink (I mean the legacy banks) as the UK regulators and the public's interests have not been served. (RBS is still 65% owned by gov). So some assets are being dispersed, the market is opening up, and legacy branches have closed at a fast rate due to cost cutting and poor locations. So there are significant industry tailwinds for the growth of "challenger" banks. Metro is the best of them all. It's the fastest growing bank I have ever seen in my life. Looks like Metro Bank is blowing up. Risk weighting for mortgages off - they had RWA for commercial mortgages at 50% rather than 100%. Did they forgot to read the manual for bank accounting in the UK? Looks doomed to me, or at least has to raise capital. On then surface, it still looks adequately capitalized, but I stay away from financials that can’t get their accounting right - a lot of them become doughnuts. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/british-lender-metro-banks-2018-072746266.html

She is now in the speech circus and needs air time to keep her brand intact.

The Problem with technical approaches is not how to avoid losses, it when to get back in. Stock markets during bear markets and early in the recovery are very volatile and probably will give you many conflicting signals. You can get whipsawed easily a few times and probably accumulate losses, if you are in the wrong side. That’s the hard part to figure out, imo.

High GNP growth does not necessarily mean a strong stock performance. China for example still has high GNP growth, but a very poor stock performance for many years now. There are numerous other examples. I believe stock market performance depends much more on how this GNP growth is achieved and profitability metrics than the actual GNP growth