Spekulatius

I think my buy target for BRK.B would be ~$165 or about 1.2x book. I don’t consider it in value territory yet, just fairly valued.

Bought the FANG stocks GOOG and FB today. I think they are cheap with a Y2018 PE in the low twenties.

Keep it quiet please..... I don‘t think that postings in an obscure finance message board will move the tape for $500+ billion market cap companies :o

Interesting job maning the platform when this rocket module is coming towards you at 500km/h. Doodiligence should into that after doing some due diligence. Certainly not dull.

It almost hurts to say it, but the FANG stocks GOOG and FB almost look cheap at low to mid twenties projected earnings for Y2018. They are cheaper than the index, considering their growth rates, superior profitability and financials and dominant market positions, IMO.

The economy was anything but fine in 2002. The tech bubble had burst, the utility sector was in shambles, 9/11 aftermath and a decent credit crunch with high spreads (not as bad as 2008, but still significant).

Agreed. Here is a clip where Danny Devito explaining Ben Graham investing thinking. No other Hollywood movie comes close to understanding the investment process. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yypj-aYtp9c Saw that one and it is pretty awesome. +1

I guess every bubble goes through a stripclub phase, right before it pops. it appears like the mortgage / RE bubble had a strip club phase. I can personally attest to the telecom bubble in 2000 having a strip club phase - there we’re plenty good ones in Ottawa at that time. Now here we are in the crypto strip club phase. History does not exactly repeat, but it it does rhyme.

This area of north Florida is really nice and has a lot more leisurely pace than Miami. Maybe he's planning on becoming a big fish in a small pond (the yacht will look kind of ridiculous so he may have to scale that down a bit.) --- Is this anything? http://www.washingtonprime.com WPG is a B (or lower ) mall operator, optically cheap, but I would rather invest in Reits that one better properties, like KIM or a play like SRG. The mall sector is a battleground right now and I would rather own Reits that own better quality assets in this situation.

In my experience, Ib worked, when nothing else would (Fidelity, E*TRADE, Wells Fargo ) during October 2018, the flash crashes etc. It is the most reliable platform I am aware of.

Yes, I believe for Elon, his companies are just the means to achieve his technological goals. I could easily envision a scenario, where Elon happily accomplished everything he wishes to, but his shareholders end up being broke.

No, I have not considered ENF. I oen already ENB , EEQ and SEP from the ENB empire and they is enough for me. I consider all of the above buys right now.

Higher LT interest rates, unless they are offset by higher growth rates, should put pressure on the valuation of a lot of asset classes, most importantly residential and commercial real estate. I know many like banks as a ply on higher interest rates and while it is true that they would benefit from higher NIM, the region banks loan portfolio are chuck full with commercial RE loans. Now add disruption in retail to this equation and I can see some real potential for nasty writeoffs for non performing loans in this sector. Reits are potentially going to be hit by a double whammy of lower asset valuation no higher financing costs, maybe even a triple whammy when they are in retail RE.

There isn’t much left once he got rid of his losers. St Joe looks like a dog to me as well.

Even the question wether Elon is a great engineer is besides the point. What he is apparently though is abgerät Engineering Manager. A great Engineering manager almost never is the best engineer, but he is a good engineer , who asks the right questions, hires the right people and put the right people in his teams, have them work on the right things, motivates them etc. Elon is certainly good on all the above, I still don’t think he is a great company CEO in the end, but I think he is a great engineering manager.

Added to my pipeline stocks ENB and KMI today. I suppose higher interest rates and the trouble in BC has added to the weakness. The big picture is that owning franchise and hard to replace cash flowing assets is probably a good thing.

Whilst I am a layman in crypto, I think the question I’d which one is the better store of wealth and which one is the better underlying technology to facilitate transactions. For the latter it seems Etherium, for the former it is most likely Bitcoin. If you want to invest in the technology though, purchasing the underlying token (Ether) is not the way to do it, you need to invest in a company that owns or uses the technology.

I thought you first entry point was $7000 for bitcoin, why $500-1000? Why not $100 or $10? While I agree that a lot of money can be made playing the rallies or the busts, the lack of intrinsic value for any crypto currencies makes it hard to get entry or exit pointe for three tokens.

During the last few month, i have opportunistically added significant positions in AXS, RE and AHL. All of them trade close to or below book value. RE is the highest quality of the above and I bought it at a small premium to book.

Total insanity. The investors in dot com companies 18 years ago were like coupon clippers compared to this crowd.

I understand that bitcoin is anti fragile by design, but on the other hand, the concept is only a few years old. I expect rapid development in this field and it is possible and actually quite likely, that. Vulnerabilities in the bitcoin concept or the way it operates will be found and exploited, especially in case sovereigns have an interest to do so. Your lack of understanding is causing you to think it's fragile While it's actually anti-fragile (and has proven to be so over the years). I advice you to either increase your knowledge or choose to let this opportunity to pass you by. If you choose the former start by understanding that whether something is physical is not relevant. What is relevant is whether something is scarce, ownable, divisable, durable, non-reproducable, etc. The funny thing it's better able to do that than the best known physical store of value (gold).

I understand that the #of bitcoins is fixed, but this does not answer my question. Creating these cryptotokens is like creating money, as long as those tokens have a value and there is no economic benefit created (at least for the time being) with these tokens. This makes it inflationary in the real world.

Some questions: 1) Aren’t all those crypto currencies inflationary? Creating these tokens creates no real value in the physical world, but they have a real value for now. right noe, the total value of crytocurrencies is just a few hundred billion $, but if this becomes larger in the trillion $ range, we are talking about a huge and non-government controlled extra money supply. 2) I understand that the network are safe because information is distributed, but what would happen, if most of the processing Power were concentrated in one spot, even if temporarily so? Could China hijack the Bitcoin simply by flooding the network with mining servers, then temporarily or even permanetly damage it with fake transactions amongst each other, which makes it hard or even impossible to restore. A distributed network sort of lives in the moment, If I can gain control or quasi control over it for just a while, one could change its history ?

My return was a paltry 7%, mostly due to a large cash position and underperformance in MLPs and pipeline and real estate stocks (WMB, KMI etc). Biggest loser was BWP and GE. Biggest winner was BRK.B (go figure)

The payoff of Luther’s thesis was not immediate, it costed Europe literally a hundred years of war until his ideas finally came to bear. He also died being more or less on the run and bitter.