Spekulatius

If the thesis plays out and FFH shows 15% book value growth or anything close to it for a couple of years, there won’t be any buybacks because most likely the P/B will be too high to warrant buybacks. In the end it will be the organic book growth that determines if the investment thesis works, not buybacks.

I use StopAd. It’s free and seems to work (no issues for at least one day now)

Thanks, I installed the Free StopAd app and the problem seems to be gone for now. Very annoying and quite honestly self defeating to allow ads like this.

I think the redirects come from ads on this website. Since the ads are targeted, some users get it and others don’t. They are a hell of a nuisance and make this website unusable. I do get them on my iPad, but not on my iPhone so far. I am contacting our host regarding this issue.

Both, small format discount stores and larger grocery superstores can coexist (they do so in Germany where Aldi and Lidl started and are the most established),as they serve different purposes. Grocery superstores is where you go for larger shopping tips. I have been to some in Germany and it is fun get the choice of 20 different kinds of ham (Schinken) from France, Spain, Germany, Italy etc. You get specialty beers there, some of them have a bar. It’s fun to go there when you have some time and purchase a larger amount of groceries and prefer some choices The small format discounter (Aldi, Lidl) where you go for everyday necessities. They are cheap, quick and quality is decent to good. Both can coexist without issue, but I the in the middle that will get squeezed.

I am having the problem recently that accessing the CoBaF website consistently directs me to some malware website for an Amazon Gift card. This is when accessing the CoBaF website with and iPad Pro. I tried removing all the website data from Safari via the setting menu followed by a restart, but this does not solve the issue. I know that turning off JavaScript for Safari gets rid of the redirect, but then many websites don’t work correctly any more. I am wondering - could this malware be server site or is it malware on my iPad? I never had such and issue before, except on a Windows PC, where a malware removal tool got rid of the issue. With that malware attack on my PC, the redirect occurred with all websites, not a specific one, so this one is different. do, far, I only got the malware redirect when trying to access the CoBaF website. Any ideas from resident experts what is going on?

Yes, doing a Teledyne only makes sense if shares are quite undervalued and there is no wayside knowing how Mr. Market will value FFH going forward. Talking about a huge buyback in context of above makes sense.

I agree on above criticism by Stubblejumper and I really think that the culture is of questionable value here (as discussed in another thread) and I would rather see a culture change than preserving it. i am not sure about this, but if it were not for realized gains, FFH would have shown an operating losss, due to underwriting losses (mostly from FFH) which interest income did not compensate for. Again, this can happen, but it’s not a great result operationally. Did anyone notice thwt AWH (which they bought last year) had an understand ration above 100 before catastrophe losses? Not great either, hopefully it’s a one off. Also Premium blabbers a bit too much about all these small deals that are with 1-2% positions (if not less) and while they work out well, they don’t do all that much for the bottom line. They need to get big things right (AWH acqusition etc.)

Meh. Quote from Michael Berman: "As chairman, Berman's top priority will be to continue MBA's role in redesigning the government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "I am honored to serve our industry as MBA's 2011 chairman," Berman said. "MBA will continue to lead the battle to restructure GSEs with private capital and a new, clearly defined, but limited government role in guaranteeing mortgage-backed securities." Context of Michael Berman for those unfamiliar: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/business/a-revolving-door-helps-big-banks-quiet-campaign-to-muscle-out-fannie-and-freddie.html Seems to be thwt the conclusion of this argument is too keep everything the way it is , since it seems to work just fine.

It’s a big deal in Germany, but not in Long Island. I have seen it quite a few times, since I moved there. I don’t know if those drivers are Jews or Italians or just the regular natives. 8)

I don’t really care about their business model or how much money their drivers make. I Luke them as a customer, they have created a way better way and interface to hire transportation, when I need it.

But what is Uber’s edge running a large fleet of cars exactly?

FFH is an US Business quoted in CAD for all practical purposes, IMO.

Thanks for posting. I bought a few shares in that Japanese RR company 9142.T, which seemed like a straightforward thesis.

Do you really think that the government will let Fannie/Freddie go when the housing market indeed turns south? FWIW, I don’t think it will and I am about to find out first hand because I will need to sell a home and buy another one due to relocation. The fast rise in interest rates certainly will give some first time home buyers reasons to hesitate and some might be priced out the market.

A lot of private companies would be a good fit for BRK like Chick- fill-a or In n Out burgers (nobody needs to explain Burgers to WEB) but it’s mute, since we do not know if the owners are open to sell. Published are companies are always on sale, sort of. I am better on Andean with GE, because there have been a lot of tangents with BRK and WEB in the past, and they do have moaty business lines. i don’t think and outright takeover is likely, but the purchase of business line or an equity of preferred injection of capital could be very beneficial for both.

Just be aware of pickpockets in tourists sides, they are way better than in the US. They won’t hold a gun on your head, they will just rid you of your wallet without you knowing. Generally speaking, Europe is much safer than the US, especially tourists sites.

I think BRK will do some sort of a deal with GE. There are just on many tangents- their insurance business, their leasing business (where cost of capital is important), pension management, equity injection, partnership in business (locomotives?) or a leading stake. The Buffet halo alone will be very valuable for GE, as it was for BofA.

Another railroad in the US is not likely since they would cause antitrust issues. I don’t think that AIG fits what they are looking for. I think they eventually need to purchase foreign companies, maybe from owner operators that want to sell out and put their company under a nice roof.

The biggest risk with BRK is WEB age. I think once WEb passes on the baton, BRK will fundamentally change. Nobody can fill WEB shoes and do the Job the same way he does, or they will do it badly. do BRK will have to change, my guess ist hat headquarter staff will significantly expand. I also think that BRK will have to to beef up their financial controls, the system in placebos probanly ver weak and build on a web of personal relationships and trust that won’t work past WEB departure.

i think you missed the main point in BRK shareholder letter regarding investing - WEb does not condem actual be investment per say, he condemns the high fees that come along with it and are apparently not matched with performance. Index funds win, because they are cheap, not because thrust are clever investments.

Thread went off topic, this is not a rent versus buy decision for OP. if I were Op, I would consider the alternative to sell your current home and buying another one vs rebuilding it. I am not sure where Op lives, but the cost to buy and sell in the US is 6% realtors commission, which can easily be reduced to 5% without sacrificing service. This would save about 1 1/2 years of rent and there is only one move (if timed properrly) vs 2 ( into rental place and out of). So, if you can buy a house that is similar to what you want and the pricing makes sense, then it might be better to do that. Only OP (and OP‘s wife) can do the math and weigh the intangibles.

I always said it with a rhyme: "happy wife equals happy life!" It's a big investment and a huge time sink, we'd have to get a rental house for 1.5 years, that's why I'm not too keen on it -- though i think she'll get her way in the end :) The folks above said it already, the intangible side of this makes for a good ROI. but with such a; extensive remodel, selling your house and buying another one might be cheaper. Unless the remodeling part is what your or more likely your wife enjoys.

Once sound underwriting is in place, they can easily generate 8-10% ROE just with solid income from bonds and investments - no home runs needed. That is the model thwt most insurance companies work towards like WRB or TRV (to name a few good ones) and they are doing quite well now and will do even better with higher interest rates. If they are doing well on the investment side, they probably can do a mid teens ROE and then they would deserve a 1.5-2x book value.

It seems that the current stock market woes in Canada are related to the Energy and pipeline sector mostly,which are over represented, relative to their contribution to GNP. The same sectors are not doing that great in the US either. The overvalued housing market will become a problem, but it is not the government doing, they are caused by low interest rates imported from the US. Folks should chill a bit.