Spekulatius

Exactly, the drones used in Ukraine are fairly short range weapons. This is even true for an Ukraine’s sets drones. The pacific theatre and the arctic ones are huge. We are talking about thousand of miles. People take the don’t lessons from the Ukraine war, as what is happening is very theatre specific with WW1 like frozen frontlines, AirPower used sparingly , it won’t translate into Taiwan or the pacific theatre st all.

reducing $RTO and $ABEV a bit

I agree, for all you can say about Trump - At least he broadly works on the right things. Execution TBD (imo) but it beats working on the wrong things. Thats something European politician need to learn and they seem to slowly get there. Take the voters and public opinion as cue on what to work on. Trump as a Bogeyman is convenient but does not get you anywhere.

I didn’t know the farmers are left wingers. I think it’s more a case where left wingers and right wingers unite (horseshoe politics) It would be a shame if this deal does not go through , but the French farmers always were a huge lobbying force in France.

Bord of peace is a joke. Trump alone is calling the shots, he made this clear and putting in $1B just is like giving him a donation. Other than to appease Trump, there is no reason to join. My guess is that Saudi Arabia, Putin and perhaps Israel will join for different reasons. This also belongs in the political thread. This has nothing to do with Europe being investible or not.

$DB1 Deutsche Börse acquisition of Allfunds. Seems like a good deal and shares are up. I bought just a DB tracker a few days ago because I like what saw. Acquisitions have been a huge driver for stock exchange returns due to cost synergies, https://www.deutsche-boerse.com/dbg-en/media/news-stories/press-releases/Deutsche-B-rse-Group-and-Allfunds-Group-Sign-Agreement-on-Recommended-Acquisition-of-Allfunds-Group-4914918

The problem is that the left wing Trump 3.0 is no cure for the right wing Trump or vice versa. They are just 2 sides of the same coin.

Listen to this masterpiece though. He runs the arc from his grandma, him becoming a baseball player, mental institutions, California homeless. It’s better than Lincoln’s Gettysburg address . Lincoln never made it on TV unlike Trump.

Also, it’s matter enough that the market is down 2% today. It’s also Taco Tuesday.

Pretty good analysis from Anders Puck Nielsen. I think he right that you cannot work with Trump trying to appease him. It might work short term but lead to more trouble long term. Just like trying to appease to a bully , it just doesn’t work. I think other politicians will figure it out. Trump is a one trick pony in many respects.

I added some CSU as well. Also, WDAY, HUBS and GTLB.

Yes, I agree as well. One of the best speeches from a politician that I am aware of this decade. And He is not just talking but doing the right things. Canada is lucky to have him. Europe should take notice. They also should do things together.

To be sure, if someone would come along like Trump to take away your stuff, threaten with war, you would get agitated too. But maybe the frog boiling is already happening with caps on interest rates , the government taking a piece of business for free or 25% of NVDA’s China revenues. What is the fundamental difference between rent control and a cap on interest rates? Philosophically and in terms of law, it’s pretty much the same thing. Except people call one thing communism and the other thing MAGA economics and the greatest thing ever.

Seems like Greenland is useless unless Canada plays ball. It also looks like Iceland is needed as well and it’s quite a bit more useful too. As well Svalbard (Spitzbergen).

I think when you put it all together Europe needs to work on three things. 1) defense sovereignty 2) digital sovereignty 3) energy sovereignty These three things would enable many other things . Energy sovereignty needs to involve nuclear power as well, because I don’t think renewables alone will get Europe there. These are all stretch goals but it’s important to get going . Even the right wing parties in most countries would agree to above goals, I think.

Yes, bond vigilantes are starting to show up in various countries . UK, Japan, Korea and to a lesser extent France, Germany. I think the reasons are lower economic growth and higher spending (Keynes). Seems to differ from country to country but Japan is particularly noticeable because currency is weak at the same time. In Japan the yield uptrend and currency decline has accelerated when Takaichi was elected in October 2025. She has proposed more spending and runs a populist platform.

Bond vigilantes in Japan. JP40Y at almost 4%. Something has to give somewhere, I think

It’s still the same way. Copilot is still not able to look into your spreadsheet or formulas and it works just like a typical help suggestion. It basically really just the old paperclip with a few upgrades but the paperclip looked better, imo. It‘s surprising how bad it is. I don’t get how people are concerned about all sorts of sticky software getting replaced by AI but not MSFT. I think Google might be able to build something with their own AI agent that helps with conversions and remove a big pain point and that could make MS Office vulnerable. Thats just one example how this could go.

It‘s a blunt weapon to own bonds and not likely to be drawn. What it does mean over the long run is that the USD loses reserve currency status over time. This means a weaker USD relative to other currencies. This will help fixing the trade deficit but also increase inflation.

There have been legit press releases before that were not posted on the WH website. Just saying. Reuters is typically reliable.

It’s not a letter, it was a text message from Trump that was released by the Norwegian government due to information disclosures laws. A lot of things seem too whacky to be true but you never know nowadays. I have shared my thoughts about Trump’s mental condition already and expect his anger and impulsiveness to become ever more dominant. I know for those who think highly of him, it’s all 4d chess.

What is the difference between a “structure down cycle” and a “cyclical down cycle” for a commodity? I am curious learn.

Some states in the US have exactly the same restrictions. MA being one of them.

New season of “The man in the high Castle “is out apparently.

So, ICE indeed has arrest quotas , regardless of the arrested being legit here or not. Show me the incentives and I show you the outcome. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/the-standoff-that-has-turned-minnesota-into-a-tinderbox-a3a7e672?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos3 BS incentives —> BS outcomes.