Spekulatius

Yes, if I had to bet on the next big consumer device, smart glasses would be it. meta has the lead here, they have been working on this for almost 15 years. Apple is also onto something but they have not shown their hand yet. THeir VR set shows they have the optical expertise in this space though.

I posted about Taraban before. He provides some of the best self help advice in particular for men I have seen for free:

This guy is a WSB degenerate . I’m also subscribed to his blog, because I think he provides some valuable insight but man - there is a lot of noise. If I had buying power, I would buy the dip. Unfortunately, I am already at maximum leverage.

I think an IBKR paper trading account would be an easier way. Costs nothing. I do think the accompanying funds letter is helpful.

My wife just sent me Pics of people lining upon front of a gold trader store to buy gold. This is from Thailand. I don’t think this is early any more for GLD.

Looks like straight from the seventies. The colors, furniture and style.

New position 4091 Nippon Sanso. Industrial gas co co. It’s cheaper than US ir European peers (APD, LIN.DE) but they have some work to do improving margins and ROI. The stock has done fairly well over the last few years but not so much recently. I think it’s. Great stalwart stock. I added a bit to 6099 Elan co. This is more growthy and controlled by another co (which may buy out minority investors ). They supply hospital and nursing homes with uniforms etc, so it s a bit like Cintas or UNF. It seems to me like they can continue to growth for a while,

Th am you for explaining you trade rationale. Always interesting to see your approach.

Yes , those are the short term drivers. For a while now, I think some central banks convert USD and treasury holdings into Gold. Gold seems to become the reserve currency of choice for China, India and a few other states

I would be uncomfortable if I were the guy on her right. ICE Barbie isn’t used to handling guns apparently.

Exactly. The easy fix of course is low or no tariffs. And while it is true that this all needs to get ratified, same is true for any of Trump’s trade deal as well. I also agree that things will not go back to normal once Trump is gone (regardless who is President next). The new normal will simply not look like the old normal.

You are also competing with Renaissance and other similar short term swing traders, which is a bad idea, imo.

Daddy Trump doing hissy fits, probably because he thought the headline was his trademark. This is the EU trade deal with India. Other politicians should get into his head more and get his blood pressure to up, imo.

Yes, the BRO valuation is undemanding. As far as organic growth is concerned, it would not surprise me if AJG sees a deceleration as well. BRO went from +3% last quarter to ~-3%. AJG looked more solid this quarter but it would not surprise me if they are seeing the same trend. They will be reporting later this week.

It’s true that murder rates as well as other crimes went down in 2025 versus 2024. However, they went down just that same amount from 2023 to 2024. Crime rates generally went up during Trump’s first presidency. https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2025-update/

- 2.8% organic growth and of course this leads to a revenue miss. They have some explaining to do tomorrow in their CC. Earnings itself were actually OK. I think the stock will remain in the doghouse for a while. I wonder what competitors (AJG) report. They also made a large acquisition.

The India trade deal seems to happen. It still has some way to go including ratification from the EU parliament. I also think Mercosur will happen, it there could be delays and revisions. Trump's tariffs are a catalyst for these deals to happen after they have been on the negotiation table for so long.

I don’t think there was intervention, it looks like it is just a rumor. This intervention in YEN, KRW also doesn’t explain why the USD was weak against other currencies like EUR, MXN, AUD and others. Looks to me like the USD is just selling off against everything, including GLD

Yes, China has been deflationary to chemicals in whole world across the board. Even US based business with cheaper input costs and protected by tariffs are suffering. I don’t think a bit after economic growth will fix that.

USD is dropping like a rock relative to other currencies. JPY, EUR, GPB. Down more than 2% over the weekend.

If you get zero unit growth (better than the current -3%) then with 3% annual pricing, you would have an equal 3% topline growth. Doesn’t look that cheap to me at 15x earnings and also ~3x debt /EBITDA to consider. I think STZ looks about fair value here assuming these assumptions. Now if they get decent unit growth again in beer, then the stock is cheap.

No doubt the desensitization is true. I do think we get on a slippery autocratic oath and are on the verge of major civil unrest which open up another can of worms if we get closer to martial law. It does I also scratch it my head why Homeland security uses Nazi like up imagery and messaging. If you know the Nazi slogan’s in German you see a write similarity. They even use the German capital spelling for some words. I would genuinely like to know what they are trying to accomplish here other than boiling frogs… There are always people oblivious on these changes until it is too late. Oh it won’t happen here! But, it’s not like the constitution will prevent this from happening unless citizens are alert to what is happening and acting and voting accordingly.

STZ Beer did not have volume growth recently either. In Q3 2025, depletions (consumptions STZ was a negative 2.7%. STZ is not priced for negative unit growth.

Monty Python sketches are still undefeated (Wilhelm Tell):