Spekulatius

I don't. I do work in the industry and knew some people who worked on high end drones and satellite optics specifically a while ago. I am sure there is some material out there, but the exact capabilities are certainly classified.

Well, what you describe are essentially the Switchblade suicide drones. The Israelis (Elbit) have a similar design, I believe.

Yes, homebuilder stocks lost 90%. The SFH decline was much dependent on location. East coat was probably ~30% from peak to trough, but others areas fared worse. My home went from $325K (2002 / purchase) to ~$550K ( Mid 2005) to ~300K in 2010, so a ~45% decline. It would have taken me until 2012 to break even on my purchase price and until 2019 if bought at the peak. This was in the California North Bay area. So stuff can happen. I checked some old reports from DHI to see if the business model really has become more capital light and I don't think it did. In fact, based on my quick Inventory/ revenue metric, it has was asset lighter in 2004/2005 than it is now (DHI inventory / revenue ratio was 62% vs 67.4% now): They do have less debt than they did back then, so the balance sheet has changed, but i don't think the business itself has changed.

Gold.

I think the bear case for SFH is all the institutional money piling in. Many here think it's bullish and maybe it was in the beginning, but institutional money become dumb money really quick. institutional money is also much more likely to sell once the tide turns than a homeowner living in his property. When the time comes, they may find that selling is not that easy because liquidity can disappear quickly in a housing market. I think that even the homebuilders buying their own product is a head scratcher. Does anyone know how many SFH homes are owned by institutional investors and what percentage of the houses they buy currently?

Well, if you bought a lot of Russian weapons, you may want to ask for a refund. It's difficult to blame this disaster on operator error entirely. Turkey for example will sell a lot of drones for sure. The Bayraktar is basically a simpler Reaper drone at 1/4 of the price and with twice the payload (due to using non-powered glide bombs rather than hellfire missiles). Turkey has a lot of good stuff in terms of military equipment (small tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rockets). I bet it will sell like hotcakes since the Turkish lira is also cheap. Also keep in mind that the US shares satellite surveillance with Ukraine so it is exactly known to them where, with what and with how much the Russians will be attacking. I know for fact that the Maxar pics we are seeing in newsreels are not state of the art. The real mil grade surveillance is much better than that using high resolution optics, IR and what not. State of the art satellite imagery can likely read a license plate if it points upwards.

Yes, Paul Giamatti is great and I love to see him in movies ever since he portrayed Pekar in "American Splendor" - a great indy movie. @cubsfan loved "Nobody as well". That bus fight scene is worth watching the movie alone: I come to like "Station 11" that HBO doomsday series. Great acting and the storyline jumping back and forth in time makes for great engagement.

I agree on this. Putin miscalculated and now his only real off ramp is in a coffin and that's not likely to happen He is trying to create facts on a battlefield, moving the tip of the spear to Donbas and create a breakthrough there. Donbas is better for him from a military POV, because supply lines are shorter and the land is more open. This should be an advantage for large tank armies and artillery and disadvantage hit and run tactics the Ukrainian have been using. Now the war has morphed into a weird version of WW1 with powerful defense weaponary, airplanes barely relevant because of AA defense systems, Spotting Drones and Artillery being a powerful combo ( airplanes were first used as spotters for artillery in WW1) and the Rockets / Javelins neutralizing tanks. Russia needs to break through the Ukrainian front, which most likely will try with a large tank force similar to Kursk trying to overwhelm the Ukraine and create a break through the front. If you study the Russian army doctrine, then you know that 15-20k dead won't deter them from trying and rolling the dice. If this attack fails or even if it only partly succeeds, then this war is going to take a long time. Regardless of the outcome, we are looking at a new iron curtain getting erected between Russia and Europe.

Yes, NVR sticks out. They are run way more capital efficient than the rest. I looked at a few financial metrics (pulled from tikr.com so may need to be adjusted a bit). the key number in terms of capital efficiency I am looking at is inventory/revenues. and NVR on that end looks far better than the rest. This is because they don't speculate on land. Amazingly enough, even though they don't speculate on land, their gross margins aren't much lower than peers. Worst of the bunch seems to be KBH. Best after NVR are LGIH, PHM and DHI. DHI and PHM right now generate a substantial FCF, LGIH operates around FCF break even.

My hunch is to stay away from controlled entities that are set up to lay of risk. For once, with controlled entities you can’t expect a buyout, except in a takeunder scenario and then there the general conflict of interest issue. it is interesting that DHI has been layi g of some risk, even though with a 63% majority, the assets and liabilities still remain on the consolidated balance sheet.

This thread is meant to consolidate thoughts on investing in homebuilders and housing related stocks. I have put some thoughts here:

This is how it works, in the US more so than almost anywhere else. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_squeaky_wheel_gets_the_grease I always complain when I feel I am getting taken to the woodshed or when I feel I can get a better deal. Just remember , on the other end of the line or (email chain) there is just a lowly paid employee who wants to make to through the day without much hassle. It’s not their money. You personally just have to figure out, if it’s worth spending your time and effort on getting “justice”.

If you believe that HPQ business mean reverts, since the pandemic is over, then he bought $4B in pre tax income for a ~$40B EV, which is not that attractive, since HPQ isn’t growing. High ROIC doesn’t really help if HOQ can’t invest incremental capital because it isn’t growing. Buffet must be seeing something else under the hood.

Yes, what people forget about buying 18% long dated treasuries in 1980 is that inflation was 13% and rapidly rising. So buying long dated treasuries was a bet on normalization. If you had done the same thing in Weimar or Argentina before the hyperinflation, you would have gotten wiped out. In fact you can read up on Stinnes who borrowed all he could pre hyperinflation in Germany at what seamed to be high interest rates. He bought companies (partly private and partly public) and become the largest conglomerate for a short time in Germany from borrowed money that become worthless. So people who claim that buying treasuries in 1980 forget that there was risk in that as well. Buying treasuries is essentially a bet on political stability and fiscal responsibility. They are not really risk free in that sense.

Gordon Lightfoot. Nothing like this song to bring memories from the 70's back. I recall hearing this on in the radio. Never get's old:

How to win a propaganda war:

@wabuffo While I agree the inflation will should recede, simply because the ripples in supply and demand from the pandemic would peter out, a new stone was thrown in the pond - the Ukraine invasion. My take is that we are at war already (even though it is a proxy war for us), but the Ukraine invasion alone screws already up things like some food items, energy etc as well as secondary effects on other items (automobile production etc). I think this will make this inflationary period last longer and it's not easy to foresee the duration. I guess this inflationary period that is now going to last 2 years is now really stretching the transitory moniker and that's why the Fed as well as Mr Market is getting antsy.

Pretty good article. Thanks for posting.

Well, but that's Putin's problem and he has his Propaganda machinery to turn pretty much everything into a "victory".

The fact that the treasury interest rates are negative (adjusted for inflation) doesn't say much about the expectations of the private sector. The shape of the yield curve does to some extend and that's why inversion can signal a recession. The private sector will merit any investments not on the Fed's interest rates at the current time, they typically have expectation on ROIC that are more or less independent on actual interest rates (mostly double digit for any Capex investment). This would change if interest rates go high single digits or double digits, but we are far from that.

If you want to do something in the real world, you still need trust. You can do all the transaction you want in the blockchain without trust, but you somehow need to make sure whatever you have done in the blockchain, gets done in the real world. The block chain tech has no way to enforce it. I also fail to see how an anonymous (by design) blockchain network of individuals is social. I think this world would be dystopian with fraudsters pretty much everywhere. Image buying a house on the blockchain and when you ask for the keys the seller says, Oh you bought the NFT of a house, here are the digital keys. Sue me.

This guy seems delusional. Just because you need a victory doesn’t need doesn’t mean you get one. NATO Article 5 isn’t worthless either, hopefully they don’t think so at the Kremlin.

So it looks like Finland may well join NATO , as was contemplated here. Sweden is much more hesitant, which is explainable given their location (no land borders with Russia). https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-putin-faces-more-nato-arctic-after-ukraine-invasion-2022-04-04/ Summary Finnish President asked NATO chief how to join; Sweden more hesitant NATO sees both countries as partners Living memories of war kept Finns on alert, Swedes less prepared Finnish politicians tour NATO capitals to gauge support Moscow has threatened "serious consequences" if countries join BARDUFOSS, Norway, April 4 (Reuters) - The sound of gunfire echoed around the Norwegian fjords as a row of Swedish and Finnish soldiers, positioned prone behind banks of snow, trained rifles and missile launchers on nearby hills ready for an enemy attack. The drill, in March, was the first time forces from Finland and Sweden have formed a combined brigade in a scheduled NATO exercise in Arctic Norway known as "Cold Response." Neither country is a member of the NATO alliance. The exercise was long planned, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 added intensity to the war game. This short video has more information This advertiser wants to share their trending video AD BY SPONSOR See More Report ad "We would be rather naive not to recognise that there is a threat," Swedish Major Stefan Nordstrom told Reuters. "The security situation in the whole of Europe has changed and we have to accept that, and we have to adapt." That sense of threat means President Vladimir Putin, who embarked on what he calls a "special operation" in Ukraine partly to counter the expansion of the NATO alliance, may soon have a new NATO neighbour. Report ad Finland has a 1,300 km (810 mile) border with Russia. In a March 28 phone call, the country's President Sauli Niinisto asked NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for details on principles and steps for accepting new members, he wrote on Facebook. Finland's leaders have discussed possible membership with "almost all" NATO's 30 members, and will submit a review to parliament by mid-April, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told Reuters.

Well, Germany had Bafoeg, which was a loan as well. I had 45k DM ($22k in USD) Bafoeg debt in the 90's and paid it back in less than 2 years. With college degree in a subject where you can get a decent paying job, anything below $75K in debt should not really be a big deal. If you get a degree in something that makes you a Barista with a Masters degree, you probably should regard your college time as an long vacation

@maplevalue you can’t look at this from an homeowners perspective, you need to look at it from a first time homeowners perspective that’s trying to buy a house the first time. They don’t homeowners equity, they need to acquire the downpayment (or get it gifted from parents) and be able to shoulder the mortgage payment. For them it’s may become impossible to become homeowners unless something gives here - either prices or mortgage rates or both.