Spekulatius

Moreover the asset inflation most likely has led to a lower labor force participation. Labor force participation has dropped during the pandemic, but never really recovered post pandemic, which is an obvious problem now that demand is above post pandemic levels. Fundamentally, with the rapidly rising salaries at the low end, one would expect a higher labor force participation compared to pre pandemic, yet we are still 1% below roughly. That a structural reason for wage inflation that now seeps into core inflation and likely a reason why inflation will remain sticky.

Yep, imaging doing this and having an “accident”. No worries, this why you have auto insurance:

We can simplify the whole thread and argument and just blame the Fed.

Seems like the same method could be applied to lay off child rearing expenses to an insurer.

Adding to existing positions in VNT, JXN, GOOGL so far.

Very simple. My job. I know a lot of others in the same boat, including my colleagues. Yes, I could job hop and find a different job for more, but likely would have to move, which creates a significant hurdle as far as family is concerned.

Wage growth is tracking inflation by a mile. I don't see this benefiting anyone, least the middle class. I checked the stats at FRED. Hourly earnings were $30 in Dec 2020, now $31.95 May 2022. That's 6.5% or annualized ~4.5%. Inflation is running north of 8%. So the average worker lost 3.5-4% of his purchasing power in the last 18 month. Ouch.

What is this thread about? Isn't almost everybody who posts here part of the elite? Or is the problem that we are part of the elite, but don't get to make the rules? What has the valuation multiple of MSFT has to do with all this? I just don't get what this is about.

@yesman182 awesome analysis and thanks for posting. I think this is how Buffett et all probably look at Berkshire’s valuation as well. The stock does not look screaming cheap but not expensive at all either.

Same here. piggybacking on @BG2008 research.

These things are not luxury items/brands. FWIW, this kind of thinking gets you in trouble when value investing.

Yes, that and probably energy savings (better insulation mandate) and heat pumps for jokes. I think shingles that double up as solar cells could work too. If we do get a real energy crisis and extended high priced things may be possible that do not seem palatable now, including nuclear power.

Caldwell Sutter and Robotti supposedly do this. Both are full service (expensive) https://www.cald.com/caldwell-sutter-brokerage-services https://securities.robotti.com/

I am sympathetic to the view on nuclear energy here, but this is an investment forum and we should talk about what is likely going to happen, not what we think should happen, because it's "right". FWIW, i see very little support for nuclear from both ends of the political spectrum. I don't think it's matter of political spectrum. This is the reality: https://theintercept.com/2019/02/06/south-caroline-green-new-deal-south-carolina-nuclear-energy/

Yes, he possibly has a strong grip on power. Traditionally, China was run by a party committee (post Mao) but that seems to have changed. That said, it is very difficult to access the vulnerability of a regime from the outside and possibly even from the inside.

yeah, I think Xi is in big trouble. He has to deal with 1) real estate slow motion crash (likely takes of several percent off from GDP growth) 2) zero COVID policy failing with no end game in sight (also impeding GDP growth and causing civil unrest) 3) failed foreign policy (getting aligned with Putin who seems to be losing a war or at best gets into stalemate) and US hardening stance on Taiwan 4) Fallout from tech crackdown( impeding innovation and causing wealth destruction for the elite) I think there is a bigger risk that Xi get's canned somehow than people think.

High energy prices work exactly like a regressive tax on pretty much everyone living on earth. As we know, taking money away from people that spent it is not positive for either economy. Giving free money to not so nice folks like the Saudis and Putin is not great idea either. Thats why high energy prices are not a good thing at all.

Digital CU has a 3.77% APR apparently. max 60% LTV though. https://www.dcu.org/borrow/mortgage-loans/home-equity-loans.html They are not the greatest to deal with though. Third Federal is another option. I had a HELOC before the financial crisis, which I never drew on before the GFC. They forced me to close it down at some point in 2010. https://www.thirdfederal.com/borrowing/home-equity

Price anchoring is one of the worst pitfalls in investing and one of the hardest to avoid - it just plays into human nature too much, especially if you are value investor. As for wish lists, I have a watch list of perhaps 400 stocks in my brokerage account and yahoo finance and a few other sites (docoh.com, tikr.com) it's watch list, not a wish list. It my universe of stocks I know something about and that forever reason i found interesting at some time. The stocks sometimes linger there for years and I forget about them, then something comes up and I look at them again and they seem to be cheap and I do more research. Sometimes I end up buying them, sometimes a competitor. I found these watch lists one of the best tool. if I remember what I took them in the list for and followed them on and off, I have already some basic knowledge that get's me started on further research / or updates.

As for the intend of this thread, I found the issues with these wish list is that once those quality stocks fall to your target prices, a lot of other stocks have become so much cheaper relative to your quality list, so you end up not buying them despite lower valuations. In a way, valuations are always relative and there is an opportunity set of stocks out there that one can buy. That makes buying quality stocks always a bit difficult for investors with an inclination to value.

Yes, i was wearing shorts too at the University - not a problem. I do recall at one of my first days at work, a new engineer who started with me was wearing shorts in summer and our boss made a comment or gave some advice. He said he truly doesn't care (which i think was the case), but he might some of the other managers might give him a look. That's the last day he wore shorts at work. I sort of wished we had taken the opportunity to collude and all wear shorts the next day.

Probably the wrong thread, but I have been waiting decades for this revolution: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/workers-now-wearing-shorts-return-210904603.html

I don’t think states like Arizona have much snow cap melt. Nevada has some but the East side of the Sierras is fairly dry too. These states are screwed LT as far as water is concerned. If you ever been in summer to Phoenix, you get an idea what hell on earth feels like.

There is defiantly a change in climate. Look for example at the Lake a mead reservoir, which is hlf empty now and the Colorado river system. About 22 million people depend on this water, pretty much Nevada, a good part part Arizona, Colorado and southern California. Many are high growth areas. I am guessing the days that golf courses exist in Phoenix Arizona soon will be over:

The last major refinery was build in 1976 by what is now Marathon oil. There were a lot of small Ng fractionators build after 2000 to separate propane and high carbon chain components from the shale NG (methane). It simply does not make sense to build a greenfield refinery, because capacity expansion of existing refineries is much more economical. This has very little to do with government policies, Imo.