Spekulatius

I would at this point state that inflation, crypto and gold are three separate things and there is not direct connection or correlation between each of those. I think it's correct that inflation alone is not going to boost gold but rather negative interest rates (after inflation) will as well as fear of monetary debasement. Crypto is a high beta bet on bubbles. It caters to a different crowd than gold.

Most people have gotten COVID-19 at this point but at least for the vaccinated it's just a mostly mild disease for them. This is very different from early on when hospitals were flooded and people actually were dying. Of course part of the difference is that treatment options besides the vaccine have improved (blood thinners, antibodies etc) but the vaccine are part of why this is more of a nuisance than a severe health threat now. As for the Chinese vaccine, some countries like Thailand had both the chinese vaccine and Pfizer/Moderna and people there are voting USA USA. Maybe it's all marketing but the efficacy in some studies I have seen for the Chinese vaccine was underwhelming. FWIW, both my wife and I have not gotten COVID-19 at this point but pretty much everyone else who we know did, including our son. I mentioned this before but the Zero COVID-19 at this point is a Chinese communist party ldogma and it does not matter if it makes sense or not from a health point of view, I think. They can do this a long time, until something breaks (which may or may not be the case with the protests right now).

I need this one for my sons room.

it differed by state and even by district. Our school was shut down for one semester then reopened for hybrid school in september 2020. The semester after that the school was fully re-opened. I live in a blue state (MA) Chinese lockdowns are hardcore. They famously welded the main doors in apartment building's. You couldn't get on the street and if the policy found you, you got thrown into a detention center. They still do the same thing almost 3 years after the epidemic started right now. It's not even close. I do think the office closures and lack of spontaneous interactions hurts in many ways, some visible and some less so. It has transformed work places, even those that remained open (like mine). Much less meetings and those are are still being held are more online. There are things that get lost when zooming, but it's hard to nail down, imo.

This wage inflation spiral is not a given imo but something to watch for. it's exactly what happened in the 70's. the ,labor market in the 70's wasn't weak except in 1974/75 and later in 1979 and workers felt screwed by inflation and salaries tracking inflation, hence the strikes. We have now rumblings bout a railroad strike which could wreck supply chains for bulk goods, cars etc. As will all inflation talk, i can't predict the future but one can look at what's happening and I think 5% salary rises with 7-9% inflation in conjunction with a strong labor market are potent mix that could lead to unwelcome surprises. To avoid this from happening, we need inflation to quickly drop to 4% or less, I think.

What is the cost/kg to move payload out of the earth gravity field (which is way higher than moving it into the near earth orbit)? What happens when one of the payloads crashes or even worse explodes in the atmosphere due to rocket failure? It is way safer and cheaper to burry it underground in a geological nonactive and remote area.

There are US/western lockdowns and there are Chinese lockdowns. Compared to chinese lockdowns , the western lockdowns are child’s play. Having to wear a mask in a grocery store is not a lockdown, Imo. Then there is the duration. US was eased in summer 2020 and mostly over in spring/summer 2021 when the vaccine was widely available. China still doesn’t have a vaccine that works and apparently plans to go on indefinitely.

People complain about working in salt mines, but I think sulfur mines are the real thing:

Most crude is produced by dictatorship countries - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Irak, Kuwait etc. That’s just the way it is and has nothing to be with woke. The world as a whole has no choice to buy it from whoever has the resources. The US is energy self sufficient as whole but that does not protect consumers here from high prices, at least not for products where prices are set by global markets.

Just my hunch, if labor market stays reasonably strong and the wage increases continue to trail inflation, we are going to see widespread labor strikes and more unification. That will complete the 70‘s experience. Maybe even the bellbottom jeans come back as well. P. S. Perhaps the strikes are already happening in the way of quiet quitting.

And the US blocks all the oil tankers and ships coming in or out from China and the game is over.

Pretty good article about the rule of 40 , which is commonly used as a shorthand to gauge the quality of tech business (especially SAAS): https://nongaap.substack.com/p/lord-of-the-operating-models

This is correct, but their nuclear fleet is aging and they will have trouble staying at 70%. I don’t see a positive trajectory here.

Except China, the answer is no.

Other wildcards: Venezuela or Iran cranking up again Demand lower over time due to China transition to other energy sources (nuclear power, EV’s for cars) Shale getting traction in more geographies Some whacko political moves which could go either way.

One of the sectors I like is packaging. I have a decent position in GEF-B and a bit WRK. BERY is another one. Packaging isn’t that cyclical and cash generative in downturns. No need to bet on any commodity prices as they are pass through. GEF-B and WRK both have had management issues, but seem to be getting better. They have double digit FCF yields.

Gold is down in USD but up in most currencies like Euro, GBP etc. It will do well when trust in currencies and particular the USD is lost. Gold went parabolic in 1980 and that was a time of crisis, weak USD and inflation. Right now we have many problems, but trust in the USD isn’t one of them.

@UK If there every a remake of Deliverance, these guys should be in the soundtrack.

That CZ / binance guy is throwing a lot‘s stones around, but may be sitting in a glass house. $COIN is a public company and has audited financial statements. Currently more cash than debt, even though the income statement looks terrible. I would guess that Binance probably goes to crypto valhalla before Coinbase does.

Holmes is not a petty criminal. She has shown considerable criminal energy stealing not just money from investors, but also purposely ruining reputations (Schulz’s son) and endangering patients. I believe in second chances and I am categorically against death sentence for this reason, but I think the 11 years (which will likely be reduced ) are appropriate. Sokol has no business really vouching for her.

Hijo de la Luna I found this one because it showed up in my YouTube feed. I have been searching for this ballad before with the key word “Luna” and Spanish ballad etc but never found it. Then it randomly showed up in my YouTube feed and I knew it when I saw it. Either coincidence or the YouTube AI gets scary good. One of the great ballad thongs of the 80’s. Show is vintage 80’s style synthies and tight black dress and all.

These "wrappers" are trading sardines. You are not supposed to check what's inside the can.

@Pessoa “16 Lovers lane” is a great album from the Go-Betweens. I like the debut album from the Cranberries as well. “No need to argue” was one of the iconic records of the early 90’s. @UK

Found this at lunch time today when youtubing: https://youtu.be/bkPUC3gWvbE