Spekulatius

You should check out restaurants there that do traditional portuguese seafood. Some of them play Fado in the evening.

The value of bitcoin is the value of it's utility - that's one valuation method I can agree upon. For me, the utility value of bitcoin seems very low, for others that may not be the case. If you are in Russia and want to flee the country, it will be difficult to get USD, but you may be able to convert Ruble into BTC or ETH or stablecoin or gold , diamonds or another cryptocurrency. Crypto will be better if I need to move out of the country, don't like swallowing diamonds and BTC is less volatile (cough) than the rest, so might be the best option. That's for the guy in Russia who wants to flee his country though. The question is why should I buy BTC if I have no personal use for it, but think that somebody else will? If so, how much is this particular utility for all the cryptos worth? Why should it be worth more than $50B, just to throw one number out?

I don't even think you can "own" property in China. Everything is a long term lease and at the end of the lease, the property reverts back to the government, unless the government extends the lease. Owning property in China is more like a ground lease. I could be wrong, but if I am not, the property prices in China are even more nuts. In any case, with a bubble like this, there really isn't a good way out without crashing the economy. They can do it quickly (unlikely) or slowly like the Japanese did in 1990.

I would start researching BRO (start with their annual reports and the scuttleburb report I posted a link to). They seem to be straight shooters. As for valuation, BRO stock does not seem to be totally overvalued, but isn’t cheap either. I am learn about stepping into this sector because all the companies have stepped up acquisitions paid for with debt and I think organic growth is a slowing a bit too. BRO for example has doubled their debt from ~$2B to ~$4B in one year and they aren’t the only ones. I wonder if there is a bit of a feeding frenzy going on here.

This might do the job. Was formerly called docoh.com https://capedge.com

LOl, cud’s for keeping track of this stuff. I really do like the first quote which is from Ben Gurion, the founding father of modern Israel. The fact that Israel exists is in my opinion a miracle. The fact that Ukraine is still there and fighting and perhaps winning may also be considered a miracle. Sadly, I think this thread will still be active in 2024 because I don’t think the war will be truly over in a year. That‘s more of a tragedy but wars tend to be long drawn out tragedies. Back to my not so cheap wine.

Brokers basically have the same growth than insurance cos, but don’t require any capital to run the business, not even working capital. That’s why they are great business.

Tucker Carlson has basically become a Russian propaganda asset. He has been repeating repeating Russia propaganda in some cases, unfiltered. It’s not the first time, or second time or third time. He does this over end over.

I Never heard about Maître Anthony, but he appears to be the bomb, so to speak. They call him the pope of cheese : https://www.chilli-freiburg.de/gastro-gusto/der-sundgauer-kaesepapst-maitre-antony/

Wednesday (Adams Family spin-off) on Netflix is fantastic: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13443470/

The risk of disruption has been contemplated a long time end do far, there is no evidence that it’s going to happen. I now remember this writeup from scruttleburb about BRO, which I think is still largely correct to this day. That alone tells you some thing. The valuation mutiples over time have crept up though. https://www.scuttleblurb.com/bro-compounder-in-a-fragmented-sector/

@longterminvestor Great summary. I looked at GSHD (discussed upthread) and can’t figure it out either. BRP is a very aggressive rollup and they carry a mountain of debt. BRO also has significant debt , but their income statement and business model seems straightforward. You can add ~20% to their net income (the amortization expense) to get the true cash flow. Maybe I buy just a few shares of that one; it also trades near the 52 week lows. It is probably close to a 6% FCF yield here, based on the numbers I can see, which is not too bad.

LOL, Germany alone will buy ammo for 20B Euro and is building new plants. US is building capacity as well. Russia will run out of conscripts before NATO and Ukraine runs out of ammo.

Looks like the NG prices in Europe are tanking. I think this winter will still be tough, next winter should Be much better and after that the energy crisis is over.

I have added to TSN as well, as well as a few others (averaging down). Just saw the proxy and I am voting against any board member with zero stock. Don't care what else they do. I do this pretty much for all proxys. I also started a position in CRWD.

The energy crisis will persist in Europe no matter the outcome of the war in Ukraine, but I think it will be over in 2024 when enough LNG capacity as well as other sources are online (Norway, Algeria etc.). Putin controlling Europe's energy supply just isn't an option any more - this is over.

Dont forget Japan doubling military spending as well, since their neighborhood good signficiantly more dangerous (North Korea, Russia, China etc). https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pacifist-japan-unveils-unprecedented-320-bln-military-build-up-2022-12-16/ FWIW, i don't think Ukraine will ever get F35 fighters. most likely the Swedish Gripen fighters would be much better (I think) - cheaper, easier to maintain and can start from short airfields. Ukraine will also get loner range weapons than Himars , it's just a matter of time.

The LNG terminal in Wilhelmshafen received its first load. This terminal can import 5% of the German There is a other one going operational soon and a couple more after this later. The NG shortage is not over yet but I think the worst case scenario is pretty much off the table unless the winter continues to be very gold (as it happens to be right now).

Yes, the litigation is another factor. It is very easy to claim injuries and settle with insurance cos after an accident, but this also goes hand in hand with higher accident frequency.

Car accident and fatality rates in the US are ~3x higher than Germany. That directly impacts insurance costs. You also need to pay for the countless uninsured drivers here (it’s a line item in your insurance bill and optional).

@dealraker the exchanges have been terrific business in the 90's and early 2000's but they are becoming more competitive. For one, there are more exchanges and new one a popping up now and then, so barrier to entry is lower now and the whole space has become more competitive. The commissions are on a race to the bottom (or at zero already) so the fees have to be racked in ancillary business (collocation, data feed revenues, analytics) I guess the latter is where MSFT comes in with LSE. I don't think they are as good of a business than they used to be any more.

Sounds like a rapper.

Einhorn was down just 20% even with those mistakes. Crazy Kathie would kill for this return this year.

@Xerxes Sometimes, I think rich people (at least some of them) are the most gullible of all. They probably delegate pretty much everything to other people including basic due diligence to people they trust. So it becomes a network of trust where everyone hopes that the person they trust has done some research, but turns out often enough nobody does. That's how people like Madoff, Holmes, Epstein and SBF get as far as they came committing very brazen cons. Of course some rich are probably pretty good at sniffing out BS but I think a lot of them lose their instinct or never had it.

It is complicated. I also said "ideal case" we and both know that ideal cases almost never happen. I have no idea how the people in Crimea or Donbas would vote, but I know that just because they speak Russian, does not necessarily imply they want to be Russian citizens. Perhaps they prefer to be a neutral state but that's even less likely.