Spekulatius

Banned? I just don't have enough Karma to post but I still have access. Yes only banned from posting, but I can still look. I should have posted something like this which got 2370 upvotes, despite being off the mark (PLTR down ~9% today):

I was just banned from WSB (been member since 2018 but rarely posted) for not having "enough karma" after making a semi intelligent post that didn't contain any rockets or other emojis. Be careful out there.

The US Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement is where people are getting this idea from: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0011 The Treasury General Account balance sits at ~$1.6t - so ending March at $800b is a big move with big repurcussions......except I don't believe Yellen! Why? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's go to the previous Quarterly Refunding Statement from November. End of December TGA balance = $1.728 Trillion. How about the one before that from August? End of September TGA balance = $1.781 Trillion. wabuffo That was Powell's work, not Yellen's ;D

I am sure it is nothing, but this chart looks pretty bullish to me for interest rates: I am starting to wonder when we need to adjust our discount rates, especially for growthy stuff. I am not a chartist per say, but found that the 200 DMA is often a reasonable indicators of trend reversals.

I refinanced at 2 3/4% for my 30 year loan with a no/low cost refinance this year, so not sure what you are talking about. Only idiots believe they mortgages will get cheaper if FRE/FNM get privatized, imo. Other than that, I agree with your concerns regarding debt.

US stimulus vs Europe stimulus: https://twitter.com/lynaldencontact/status/1360618998975655944?s=21 Looks like we are a bit overstimulated. What happens when the drugs wear off?

He invested in GD before with a sizable position, but this was a good while ago. I would not be too surprised if he bought a basket of defense contractors, but I think not. GE is definitely a strong possibility. Another one is that he keeps adding to a basket of Pharma stocks (MRK, BMY were added last quarter if I remember correctly).

I remember him from his BOX pitch from a couple of years ago. He got this stock moving for a bit, but he possibly picked the worst performing SAAS Stock back then. That said, he has a knack for spotting trends and marketing.

I have worked at 3 different companies and got an inside look into a few more and R&D spent isn’t equally applied even within the same industry. In the industry I work in,a typical R&D spent is in the single digits, but I did work for a company that had R&D spent of almost 20%. However much of this R&D spent was mostly one off spent to get a certain product ready for a specific customer and in my opinion it really was sort of an Opex spent, because it didn’t really create a lasting benefit for anything but a specific use case that likely was a one off (custom). My take from this is that one should take reported R&D spent with a grain of salt and should be suspect of outliers and see if it created any visible moat in terms of sales growth or higher gross margins. If it doesn’t it either waste of just misclassified.

Mine are as follows. I have a few more in another account that are not listed (mostly foreign holdings). Largest one is LAACZ because I #neversell and need to make filling out the K-1 worth it. ABEV AMNF ANTM AZO BABA BAYRY BERY BMRN BMY BNTGY CBOE CMCSA CVS FAF FB GD GMED GOOG JNJ LAACZ LHX LMT MITK MMAC MNPP MO MRK NOC NUVR ORI PKE QUCT RNR SIMO SRE UELKY VIVHY VMW VNT

Jim Simons: I am sure the math checks out.

Added a bit of MRK. Stock has done nothing recently despite pretty decent results. Same with BMY (I own a little bought during the CELG merger selloff). Those are the two Pharma stocks I follow closely, and they are cheaper than they have been for years, despite decent top line growth. I probably add more BMY too.

This is like LOLZ wtfpwn stupid outside money dudes... ::) Maybe these outside money funds are just sacrificial lambs to feed the employee owned beast?

If the Fed ever wants to prick a bubble without hurting the economy, targeting BTC and the other cryptos is one way to do it. As crypto becomes larger, it is almost inevitable in some way, the question is what and when.

^ Stocks are also the least affordable ever, but no one sees it that way.

That's a nice list here. I have similar views on diversification, FWIW.

Try this link, it should work: https://app.tikr.com/register?ref=o94y6y Koyfin is also worth a look (I use both): https://app.koyfin.com/home

Pretty good ad from Fidelity:

Or pretty much any finance professional publicly presenting ideas and acting on them.

Yeah, that’s my question too. For me gold looks like a better bet, especially in a scenario where interest rates are artificially held back and inflation runs hot, like some have alluded to may happen. So, I keep buying small chunks of IAU in one account where I have the most cash (and IRA account). I sort of regard it as a cash alternative knowing too well that it can develop downside volatility in a choppy market. Guys, he's buying TLT for deflation/falling rates scenario, not for inflation/rising rates... ::) He actually explicitly said: I am aware of this, but gold could do well in a deflation as well, if there is concern about the financial system. It will however certainly do well better in a situation that I alluded to, where we have inflation and artificially suppressed interest rates.

Yeah, that’s my question too. For me gold looks like a better bet, especially in a scenario where interest rates are artificially held back and inflation runs hot, like some have alluded to may happen. So, I keep buying small chunks of IAU in one account where I have the most cash (and IRA account). I sort of regard it as a cash alternative knowing too well that it can develop downside volatility in a choppy market.

I mean, they're just investigating, no judgement is made yet. But I get your point, of all the shady crap that goes on, this is the one they decide to delve into... Remember the good old days, when the SEC were literally handed a full blown case into a hundred billion dollar ponzi scheme, and did absolutely nothing with it? If they did not investigate, there would be an outcry that they are not investigating... ::) It’s in the news everywhere, so politicians have to take a look. In my opinion, there is nothing to investigate, it’s all out there in his YouTube videos. Maxine Waters should watch a couple of them from 5-6 month ago when he got started and I bet she could learn something, if she cared.

Actually AGM is similar (guarantees Agricultural loans backed by land). 4.2% dividend yield and 9x PE. I don't own it, but it looks like a decent value to me.

Silver demand from solar cells is supposed to go down because the industry innovates around using less silver by using new process techniques as well replacing/stretching the silver with alloys. this has been going on for while and is likely to continue. Also, aren't the shorts in silver mostly the miners hedging their production?

There was no intellectual framework in how to select stocks. It was full of discussions about how Lynch selected individual stocks, groups of stocks...alot of it based on "buy what you know". When I tried to invest using his methods, it was pure luck...half the time I made some money, half the time I lost money. It worked for him, but none of it could be duplicated! I finally woke up when I read Buffett's Letters, "The Intelligent Investor", and finally "Securities Analysis". That's when my batting average finally started to improve and the fundamental way I selected stocks was consistent, methodical and would work for the rest of my life. I got far much more value out of just reading 10-Q's and 10-K's in my first six months, than I did from Lynch's book. Kiyosaki's books were good in just changing my mindset in how to invest, why buy businesses, and to create passive income. But Ben Graham's books and Buffett's Letters changed my life forever! I will be eternally grateful to them! Cheers! I agree that Lynch’s books aren’t really good for investors getting started. At least by themselves, they are probably more dangerous than helpful. They are good in terms of how to get started doing research and find interesting stocks, but it doesn’t tell you about the next steps on how to look underneath the hood.