Spekulatius

Labor participation took a deep dive during COVID-19 and is only very slowly bouncing back. I think the only thing bringing back these people is better pay. Now consider demand generally above 2019 levels and it is clear there is a labor shortage. These labor costs surges will not reverse, they are sticky.

Yes and the paid taxes show up on your W2 ( or at least should). You should clarify with HR what that line item that is that indicates the taxes paid on your behalf. I had this issue one year, because the brokerage that is used for the stock sales also gives you a 1099-B. The part that relates to stock sales in this 1099-B needs to be eliminated, or you are paying the taxes twice. I once had to defend myself form an IRS mini audit because they stated that part of my 1099-B transactions were missing. Those were ESOP stock sales that related to stock sales already reflected in my W2. I could explain this in a letter detailing the W2 line item that this stock sales refer to and it was fine, but it is something watching out for.

Yeah, gold bugs today: When we talk about transitory inflation, what does this mean? How long is transitory? If we get 7% inflation this year and let's say 5% next year, we have 12.4% chained inflation in two years. If we then get back to 2% in year 3, is this OK? Transitory in my book would be we get 7% this year and -3% next year, which would be ~2% annualized but I am fairly sure that's not the expectation here, or it is? Just an observation and I posted this before but at my work, the inflation mentality is already there. Everything we sell gets price increases across the bank. All input costs are rising too, some ridiculously so. This in sector that has seen very little price increases since I started to work in 1997. Not even during the boom in 2000 I have not seen inflationary increases like we have today. I am sure my experience is not an isolated one. Once the inflation cat is out of the bag, it's not easy to get it under control as these things develop their own momentum.

Personally, I think the Fed guys should surprise anyone and raise by 100 bps in March and signal another unspecified raise coming after that. They are so far behind, it's not even funny any more. This is economic advice from the peanut gallery.

Hyperinflation only occurs when the trust in the government is lost. This typically happens after a catastrophic event (lost war, won war) a large scale natural disaster or a complete idiot is elected. Money is basically a promise to pay and that means that if trust in the government is lost, the trust in the value of money is lost as well. I am not aware of any incidence where hyperinflation occurred without a collapse in society and with it the economy. You can look at Weimar, Post WW2 Germany, Venezuela, Argentina and many others. I don't see this occurring in the US or Europe, but if it does, there are a lot of things to worry about, even if you own assets that are inflation proof.

Well the Weimar inflation was transitory too. Only lasted about 3 years. The hyperinflation phase lasted less than one year. Yellen should read up on Hjalmar Schacht.

I would Aena any time over this one.

Netflix US does not have Shetland. @Xerxes is in Canada and they apparently have got some of the earlier seasons there, but no luck in the US.

Watching Peacock NBC Winter Olympics via their Peacock streaming service. I have Peacock Premium (add supported ) for $4.99. I probably only keep it for one month for the Olympics alone, but it’s worth it. I had the same subscription for the summer Olympics and the coverage was atrocious (too many brief summaries, commentaries but not showing the events). This time, for the Winter Olympics, the Peacock service does provide great coverage. I have always liked the Winter Olympics and can remember watching my first one in 1976 as a kid when I was sick with the flu. At that time, the Russian and East German teams were cleaning up medals left and right. This was also the year when legend Ingmar Stenmark started to come in the spotlight.

ABG (starter) and adds to PSMT, FYBR, VNT and FB

I guess there are some French Canadians following this thread. I recently discovered Richard Desjardin again. French Canadian friends introduced me to this singer/songwriter almost 20 years ago and I forgot about him. He is not for everyone but he is a great songwriter. Many of his songs sound like classical music. I like his newer records more than the older one." Boom Boom" and L'Existoire . I think the track below is from Kanasuta.

$FB and reloading $STNE

FB going back to prices last seen in march 2021. If you read Fintwit you would think that an asteroid hit earth and destroyed half the hedge fund managers and finance professionals in NYC. Even crude oil prices are falling. LOL.

^ LOL, sounds like I am missing out on drama sometimes by not following US Sports. Just reading about RKT and his letter above, I get the distinct impression that working for him is not for everyone. As for RKT, I think it's an interesting company, but it went public when margins for mortgage gains on sale blew out far above baseline, so earnings were temporarily elevated, Gilbert also was smart enough to do his own cash our refinance and pulled a couple billion out of his own company before the IPO, if I recall correctly.

Daniel B. Gilbert from Rocket Company $RKT certainly qualifies. He was able to build out his company as the largest mortgage company in the US. He was also clever enough to take his company public when the margins for gains on sales for mortgages were the fattest in recent history.

Yes, some pitches now feel like - we think this X will happen and the growth apes will bid this up to 30x revenues and there you have your 50% return! This has afflicted VIC now as well. Lately this has not been working that well.

One little problem I see with this pitch is that they have 2022 earnings estimates at ~$6.7 and PYPL just forecasted $4.6-4.75. Crystal ball must be broken, pls fix. Overall it is interesting that this COVID-19 beneficiary has underperformed the broad market through the COVID-19 cycle. So much about #neversell. Ouch!

Based on AH quotes of ~ $146, PYPL will be at a 52 week low tomorrow. Pretty good company, but I can see this one going back all the way to pre- COVID prices of $110-120 when the bear get growling a bit longer. Forward guidance of ~6% for Q1. (14% wo EBay) is not going to get growth investor exited.

It's not that great of a book. Greenblatt's books are much better, imo.

I can speak to this one as well, because it sort of captures my own situation. If you have $2M and it works out to be enough well that's great but it is likely that after a 50% drawdown $1M would not be enough. On the other hand, an extra $1m may not buy you much either in terms of quality of life and how you can spent it. It's a matter of the utility function of money - at a certain point the extra $ isn't worth much for you any more. 50% drawdowns are not theoretical exercises either - I have seen two of them in 2001/2002 and 2008/2009. I have also seen in both of these cases people who thought they are set having to go back the drawing board and change their life plans going forward. I believe that with when asset prices are inflated overall, these sort of drawdowns become much more likely and that's why a defensive posture may offer a lot of value to some people.

Yes, that's the concern in a nutshell. These type of boom busts have occurred with semiconductors and other components many times. I have seen tis personally at work over and over. it happens because purchasing organizations collectively can panic just as much as any individual human can. Just a recent example - the company I work for produces components that get used in medical equipment including respiratory equipment. Guess what, business went gangbusters early in 2020 and volumes went up and up faster than we could deliver until late 2021. Then they went to....zero. Word from the customer is that they have inventory for at least 12 month that they need to burn through. The same thing happens again and again. I do think especially right now with all the supply chain issues, there is a lot of double ordering going on (likely exaggerating the very real underlying issue) in many different parts in manufacturing and supply chains. These are ripples that all come from the COVID-19 shock that hit supply chains at different points in time, depending on products, lead time, raw materials, labor availability. It will take a long time until these ripples have made it through the system, but eventually it will happen.

I do understand people picking a manager that get's lower returns with a much lower volatility. Personally, if someone could credibly "guarantee" me 10% returns going forward with very low risk and low volatility, I would take the offer.

UPS - this is what pricing power looks like. International revenue per parcel was up ~15%: It will be interesting to see the cost trend for Amazon. I have seen based in brokerage reports that their package unit cost are lower - roughly in $5-6 range. This is in part due to smaller package size though. I am fairly certain that Amazon prime is going up by $20.

Baupost deserves some credit for navigating crisis scenarios like 2001 and 2008 well. in my opinion, if you have a goal to protect principal in drawdown/crisis scenarios, it is Ok to underperform in a relentless bull market, even throughout the cycle. I don't really have access to performance data, just want to throw this out there to the wolves.

I used to watch his show years ago and it was entertaining at times. Even back then his recommendations were quite bad on average. I think a show where people bet on stocks could be interesting but I am not sure what right format would be. On another note, I have not heard anything about Dave “Daytrader” Portney for a while - is he back to sport betting?