Spekulatius

Sold my BAYN.DE / BAYRY here. Made a little money on this but it has underperformed and I have no confidence in this management. No recent news here really but I have been reviewing my holdings and this one felt like it should go.

My only holding in these is Tosnet 4754 (Security services), which isn’t a net net, but fairly close. my thesis is that earnings should rebound fairly quickly from the COVID-19 hot, which indeed did happen, but the stock is just sitting there. I believe Tosnet is controlled by Secom 9735 (if I recall correctly). Investing in these Japanese net net is boring as hell. They do nothing but everyone once in a while some of them go on epic runs for no obvious reasons whatsoever. Probably some pumping and retail excitement that we won’t mostly be aware of unless we follow some sources very closely.

$HOOD and $SQ 8/2001 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/08/02/heres-why-jim-cramer-recommends-buying-shares-of-robinhood.html

Added a bit to PSMT (the other Costco). Starter in BAH.

Dating myself here, but I regard CACI and SAIC basically as utility like income streams and value them based on levered FCF yield. Here is the LT chart for CACI: Both CACI and SAIC do have a trashier credit rating (BB, BB+)than the primes LHX, LMT or NOC, so I keep Position smallish. If credit markets don’t do well, these names could be smacked around a bit too.

I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space. Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do.

$CACI popped up on my watchlist as it tanked today (slight earnings miss) so I bought a few shares. Looks like it's trading for a ~10% FCF yield. Need to do more work on this one, but I really want to fill up the defense part after selling off LMT and NOC in my IRA's (due to more stretched valuations) . I also added a bit of $SAIC. I do feel that CACI may be a better bet. Track record looks good, but one can also tell when the sequestering was going on from ~2013-2015. FWIW, there is a VIC short recommendation from this time. Stock has roughly tripled since then. Cash from ops (which is almost = FCF because it's a service business with little capex) also almost tripled. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/CACI_INTL_INC__-CL_A/6122444798

They lost a lot of money during WW2 when Mercedes Benz essentially was destroyed, then completely rebuild post war. The Nazi's shut down the stock exchange in the 40's I think. The Reichsmarks was later exchanged 1:10 for Deutsche Mark. I think investors were breaking even in the Mid fifties from a purchasing power POV and then started to make a lot of money. I knew a older fellow who inherited Daimler shares bought pre-war from his parents and held them until the late 1980's at least and did fairly well. In any case, the investors in Daimler shares beat those who stayed in cash. I can confirm however that losing a war and getting the entire country destroyed is not great for the stock market.

This is more financial planning than giving investing advice, which is probably more important. Seems like you have given them a very reasonable advice.

Looks like he is the seller. He is a seller http://openinsider.com/screener?s=KBH&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=365&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&vh=&ocl=&och=&sic1=-1&sicl=100&sich=9999&grp=0&nfl=&nfh=&nil=&nih=&nol=&noh=&v2l=&v2h=&oc2l=&oc2h=&sortcol=0&cnt=100&page=1

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/19/what-i-plan-to-do-when-the-market-crashes.aspx I sort of doubt the frequency of 50% crashes. hard to say with outlier events. If true, we had our fill for this century.

I don't think it's Omicron. We had other epidemic waves before that didn't really do much. I believe there is a chance that the consumer is tapped out (at least those that have received transfer payments) and/or really started to feel the inflation.

Netflix is an interesting one because the most important value driver is subscriber growth. NFLX has done 20% subscriber growth annually for quite some time, but since 2021, the growth has dropped to ~10%. I sometimes watch MF Live and one analyst who tracked it (Jim Mueller?) was plugging the post earnings subscriber growth numbers in his excel model. Value went from ~$900/share with 20% to ~$400 at 10% subscriber growth. Whoops. That said, if iNFLX drops to ~$300/share, it might actually be worth a look from a valuation perspective, imo. I think there is a good chance the subscriber growth may pick up a little once they come past the COVID-19 comps. Although, I do think they are close to saturation in the US and perhaps other countries. They need to crack a big new market like India (which they are working on right now).

Small adds to many existing positions. New ones: SPB and STNE and ATVI.

How do you know it costs you little? It depends what happens in the markets and how the portfolio is performing as well as the size. Why would @Aurelius take a risk with at no benefit to him? If it were in the US and just little money, I would just tell them to go to treasurydirect and buy the isavings bonds and be done with it.

Looks like they want to change the UI: https://notes.roic.ai/new-beta-version-v1-2b/

These stocks have done what they are supposed to do - they protected the portfolio. I think they are fully valued at this point. Hoping to put them into something with more upside. I am keeping LHX here. I really like management. Might even add on a drop. I also would like to add to SAIC (only small position) for that juicy FCF yield.

Significantly reduced LMT and NOC.

Got to be Meat Loaf today - RIP FWIW, Bat out of Hell II > Bat out of hell 1 in my opinion.

I found TiKR.com to be fairly reliable. They supposedly pull data from SP Netadvantage. I was aware of the ROIC website via Twitter but have rarely used it. I prefer the Tikr.com format.

It is possible but it would be a temporary position. Your wife would have to move around a lot.

I loved the episode where they watched “superb owl”. (S2)

I would just be careful with generalizations. The typical travel nurse job is not to be on call and hang out on the beach. As for the incentive as a ruse to have a regular job, it depends on where you are in your professional and personal live. A senior nurse will earn more than $40/ hour and she might get bonuses too. However, if you are single and just starting out in your twenties, then traveling nurse might be a decent jog. If you are in your forties or fifties married with kids, probably not so much. These sort of travel long jobs exiting in every profession. In my former job (which was a bit of a traveling job too) I met and worked with engineers that did service and fix machines (sort of semiconductor equipment) all over the world. Paid by the hour with travel times etc. Lots of opportunities to make overtime, but it’s quite stressfulL, I can guarantee you that. You can do this in your twenties but if you do this long enough and as you get older, it’s not that much fun any more.

I think high short interest is a yellow flag at least. Generally speaking, shorts are not dummies, more often than not stocks with high short interests have issues and it does not hurt to find out what they might be.

Yes, these numbers make sense. Travel nurses were always there, but back then it was that some areas had an oversupply of nurses and others and under supply and travel nurses were one way to even this out. My wife had trouble to get a job in CA when she got her degree ~10 years ago because that area had a lot of nursing schools. Some of her class mates joined the traveling circus and went to Texas or even the Dakotas. Now with COVID-19, the epidemic waves creates moving hotspots throughout the country and the burnout has reduced the labor pool on nurses so when COVID-1 hits a certain area, the travel nurses are needed to relieve the temporary shortage. The experience that @Castanza describes is unusual though. My wife sees the travel nurses too and they usually get into the COVID-19 wards, Its sort of like a clean room where you run around with thick plastic protective gear and faceshields. My wife sometimes can’t even take breaks because it takes to long to get dressed down and up again for the treatment she is running in this area so it’s sometimes 10h straight with barely any time even for a bathroom break. The travel nurses typically get jobs that other don’t want to do (COVID-19 wings etc) so it is generally not easy cruising, they have to work for the money.