Spekulatius

If someone told me in late 2019 that we have a) a major world wide epidemic b) A European land war c) the SP500 would be up ~50% in 2022 after all this occurred... Well I would have thought this person is crazy. Yet, here we are.

Go-Betweens - Aussi Pop/Rock

My experience in China is data (mostly Suzhou, some Shanghai) but I think China is very glizzy from far away and get's shabbier as your look closer. A lot of the new buildings were very crappy build when you look closely. I was walking around one day in Suzhou because I could not haul a taxi back to the hotel and found a whole underworld of what I think were migrants living in cardboard boxes and shanties next to a bridge. I felt like I have made a wrong turn in Oakland.

Sold $RHM.DE close to ~155 Euro in my IRA. Crazy how this benefited from the Ukraine war. I bought this at ~64 Euro not so long again . I am hodling in my taxable account (bought even lower). Sometimes deep value works although the circumstances are sad in this case.

How many Taiwanese do you know? The ones I know don't think reunification is inevitable at all. They would never want to live in China. They move to the USA not China, if they can.

Spaceforce Season II is great so far. I liked Season I as well but Season II is better.

The military conflict aside, this is an interesting demonstration how owning the world's most important reserve and trade currency, controlling important elements of the financial system (SWIFT) and creating unity with other allies allows the US to use a weapon of financial mass destruction without ever firing a shot.

Sold VTRS at a loss. I decided I was wrong about this one. Y2022 EBOTDA forecast was significantly below consensus and they got way less for the biosimilar business than hoped for. I am surprised they are selling it for this price. I decided my thesis is busted. Edit: Sold LHX in my IRA's. I think it's fully valued.

@Xerxes I think he is right in terms of the Russian tactics. The Russian want to avoid too much collateral damage and they are likely trying to avoid major combat as well as going into heavy urban areas (which likely leads to heavy fighting and losses, both of their own as well as civilian). Urban combat also negates superiority in materials and technology, so as he stated, the Russian encircle cities and go around them. I also think that there is no doubt the russian are winning this war. However, then he rants about the Zelensky regime. I don't know much about the election process, but his claim is that Zelensky is illegitimate. and that's the first time I hear this. I think this guy is likely a Russian propaganda shill. It is pretty clear that there is a propaganda war fought on both sides on social media. You see stuff like the "Ghost of Kiev" fighter ace from the Ukrainian side, allegedly shooting down several Russian air planes. This is most likely made up. I think this Red pill guy is just another case of Russian disinformation on social media.

Just saw this in IBKR when I looked at my exchange rate tab. The USD.RUB pair doesn’t trade yet, apparently because they can’t open it in Asia: This is going to be interesting. First time I have seen this. Even the Turkish lira kept trading through all this craziness with Erdogan.

I am thinking of this step which essentially would freeze Russians foreign currency reserves. I don’t know if they can pull this off, but if they can, Russia is basically broke. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/02/27/background-press-call-by-a-senior-administration-official-on-imposing-additional-severe-costs-on-russia/

Why would that be?

I predict that the Ruble could collapse tonight or tomorrow morning once it starts trading. With collapse I mean >20% loss against USD/ Euro.

The major powers don’t recognize Taiwan as province of China, they are dancing around the issue. I think it is just a matter of time until Taiwan is recognized as a sovereign country by the US. If anything, the current developments will speed up this process, not delay it. This will happen especially if China and Russia are creating a neo Axis and start to work together. Taiwan should already have been recognized as a sovereign country a long time ago.

Nordstream is already shut. Germany stated that the pipeline which is largely build will not get certified. Nordstream is just a Backup anyways , the gas can flow through the Ukraine and other countries , for now. Rude wake-up call for Germany and Europe, imo. I do like that Olaf Scholz (new chancellor) seem to run a much harder stance than Merkel (see that he agreed to shutting of SWIFT for Russian banks and more importantly delivers weapons to the Ukraine military from the Bundeswehr. Merkel would never have done this, Imo. Change in energy politics will take longer, but is coming as well, I think.

I think a Blockade with missiles could work to impede trade flow, but think about how easy it is to impede China‘s trade flow, The Gulf strait , Singapore strait, US has bases in Japan, Phillipines, Taiwan. The Chinese merchants trade would just be bottled up on now time. Think about this - no bulk goods like, crude, LNG, coal, iron ore, grain etc coming in and out of China. It would cause an economic collapse for them very quickly and severe issues for the resting the world as well. Again, this would be a move that comes at a much higher cost to the Chinese than to the US or even Taiwan.

The argument is laughable. For once the US Army wasn’t militarily defeated in Afghanistan either, it was just that the Afghans in the end didn’t want the US to be there and had no will to fight for themselves. There is no comparison of Afghanistan and Taiwan, in terms of geography, geopolitical and economical importance. Taiwan and Korea are totally different cases than Afghanistan.

You really think anyone gives a damn about AMD’s and NVDIA margins when Taiwan is attracted? Both actually would be seriously impaired if not close to zeros in this case. So there you have your hedging advice (long dated low strike puts on both )The Chinese would continue to be able to run TSM fabs and supply US companies as if nothing has happened? I do think the HS could protect Taiwan much better than Ukraine simply with air and missile cover, using the navy as well as from bases in Japan.

Grenke has some serious issues as far as management is concerned. If that management is looking good to RV, I don't think their vetting process is worth much. I also think the fact alone that Bafin (which is pretty toothless and incompetent) find several issues with Grenke is a huge red flag.

I think ROST is a simpler story than TJX and the valuation is lower. Both are fine companies, imo.

Oil stonks down, tech stonks up. Banks down big time, because the fed has to support war torn economies, so no interest rate rises. Back to normal. Those are my cliffs notes for today.

Blue chip $AMC is green today.

Picked up some stuff in Poland for almost 20% off this AM and it was cheap to begin with.

I actually bought some ROST today. Always liked the business and price is fair. We might all need to buy our clothing there if this market continues.

The sanction makes sure they don't hurt anybody. If they really wanted to hurt, they would sanction Airbus and Boeing, which both have a commercial airplane business in China. The Chinese are basically saying - look we need to show off a bit for our people, but we make sure that nobody get's hurt.