Spekulatius

@boilermaker75 yahoo finance will do that. Example BRKA: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRK-A/history?period1=322099200&period2=1645228800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true Click on the “historical data” tab.

The application of the lessons from 2020 does not work well in 2022 so far.

Speaking of being on tilt, Munger dishes it out freely to the Laser Eyes, Inflationistas, Bernie Sanders: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-critics-of-the-ultra-rich-motivated-by-envy-211503200.html

FIS, SHOP and BAH.

SWMAY - why did I mess with the other stuff:

@Xerxes thanks for the podcast recommendations. I will check them out. I decided to flip my SAIC proceeds into BAH. Similar business but higher valuation and higher quality. I am simply going with the better LT track record here.

The Last Duel is on HBO+, not Disney+. Definitely not a Disney movie either (I liked it). I very much look forward to Lord of the Rings. I very much hope they get this right.

Volatility is risk if you use margin and that is what Munger did. Easy to blow yourself up with quality stocks or things that almost always work, if you are concentrated , leveraged and keep doing it over and over. WEB never did use margin, but as @wabuffo mentioned, he used a personal loan (which might be less risk than using margin ) early on to leverage. As for the Berkshire partnership - one could contemplate that when Munger joined Berkshire, it was simply WEB risk management that took over. Munger realized that he could better being WEB sidekick than being on his own. In a way, a super smart insight. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/662624/notes-from-charlie-mungers-partnership-

For disclosure - sold my few shares in SAIC this AM about flat. The reason is that every one of the defense service contractors has taken a hit from Omnicom - BAH, CACI, LDOS. Maybe SAIC escapes the carnage but I think near term, the risk skews to the downside.

If I get satisfactory liquidity, I tend to buy the ADR's. It also depends on my account - I have both IB and Fidelity account and never buy on foreign exchanges in my Fidelity accounts, due to high costs.

Yes, I bought this low. The runup has been crazy, must be due to factors driving it. I don't think the terminal value concerns will ever go away with this one. That said, I funneled at bit more into SWMAY yesterday, which hasn't really run up at all.

Sold BTI in my IRA accounts.

I realize this, but this was pretty much known before. The selloff seems to have occurred after another one of these Ukraine scares.

Did AJRD just sell off because Putin's attack on Ukraine is imminent? C'mon. Maybe my fundamental view of the company is flawed, but war sure won't hurt it. Bought a few more shares.

Looked at PTVE and it's really a POS business or management team. this was supposed to be a reopening play, but somehow got wrecked by inflation and lack of execution. I think prior to going public again, the business has shrunk for years. It was a VIC recommendation at ~$18.5 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/PACTIV_EVERGREEN_INC/0301387172

Yes, I think it’s true, but it is nevertheless an industry where good operators can do very well. Despite being somewhat commoditized, the margins in the industry are generally stable and even demand it stable, leading to stable cash flows. This combination allows skilled operators to deploy significantly leverage for a rollup strategy. Just look at what good operators like BERY or BLL have done. It is an ideal industry for Berkshire to get involved, I think. Stable but slowly growing markets with very little chance of disruption, but with a chance deploy significant amount of capital for solid returns. Low cost of capital and serving as an backstop opportunistically for deals cpuld be BRK‘s advantage.

I would argue that a lot has changed as far as BABA is concerned since he first bought it.

This thread has outlived its usefulness.

As for China. I don’t know about Xi, but I think the Chinese economy is very fragile right now. Their Zero COVID-19 policy is failing, their vaccines are not working well and there seems to be a risk of a real estate meltdown. I think the telltale sign was when Xi warned the US about increasing interest rates. Why does he care about US interest rates? He care because the Chinese yuan is pegged with the USD which also means that interest rates are pegged - if the US raises, the Chinese will have to raise too. They do have the option to abandon the peg, but that means losing face and also could cause issues with their banking system as well as inflation.

Speaking of semis, biggest stick the US could use is total tech embargo vs Russia. Russian semi tech seems to be 15-20 years behind - we are talking 100nm ballpark nodes. They wouldn’t even have a decent PC any more, if you push it through hard enough. I think the tech part or the Russian economy could be absolutely crippled with an embargo. Now Russia could retaliate with NG export throttling it the winter in Europe is already over basically, so I think they can scrape by with LNG imports etc. Then in the medium term Europe weans off Russian gas and those export Euros are gone too. I don’t think the Russian hand is as strong as many believe here. Then hit Putins Oligarch friend and freeze their funds in London, Spain, Cyprus , soccer teams etc. You can wage war without firing shots.

Well, if you really think that Taiwan will get annexed by China, TSMC is a zero and the TSMC $40 strike (lowest strike available) for like .$45 would be the play. 90 bagger potential.

@CafeB Lot‘s unpack from your post. While I think contract favor the incumbent, we have seen large service contracts change hands so to speak. It’s not the norm, but it does happen, so I don’t switching costs are all that high. Each of these companies has some specialized where they have competence. look at this this way, if you experts in satellite communication tech and now want to win a contract for a submarine drone ship, would the existing expertise of you employees be helpful? Probably not. As for LDOS, I just have bad vibes about them due to corruption scandals ( read NY city contract overcharging ) and the political donations. I don’t see anything that would entice me to pick them over SAIC or CACI either, so I just decided to leave the stock alone. On BAH - I traditionally avoided the stock, because it traded at a substantial premium to the epithets mentioned here. I can see why though- BAH ha better margins and shown better organic growth which warrants a higher multiple. So I recently bought some shares in BAH as well around $74. The stock has been hit by COVID-19 this winter, which crates the stock but should be temporary.

Russia regard their involvement in Syria as a success, the fact that some mercenaries got lost there doesn’t matter, because in the end. Thr US pulled out there. I also think they regard the US retreat out of Afghanistan with Schadenfreude. Russia got their ass kicked there in the 80’s so they sure like to see others getting the same treatment. I don’t think anyone understands what Putin is up to but what is clear is that he has become way more aggressive during the last year in particular. it could be because he is emboldened by the successful quasi annexation of Bellarussia or he just feel he need to act now for reasons unknown to us. Anyways, the Politician who understands Putin best is the Finnish President Saudi Niinistö. Finland also has been threatened somewhat by Russia (potential NATO entry is the issue). They ordered just a bunch of F-35 jets from the US, which is a clear signal and not to Putins liking.

So you find this totally random stuff in YouTube, like these 4 gorgeous and talented girls singing Russian folks songs:

That offer is a takeunder.