Spekulatius

And of course Netanyahu does the same thing - he endorses Putin‘s lapdog and grifter in charge. Why are they both interfering in European elections ?

Are you sure you have the timeline right? In 1977 and 1978 Reza Pahlavi was still in charge and his secret service and the army killed hundred of protesters. The revolutionaries did not get into power until 1979.

DFH almost 4x their revenues since 2020 without much dilution. Homebuilding is a business that does require capital to grow. To quadruple a business without increasing the sharecount is quite an accomplishment.

Trump endorses Putin-phile Orban. This POS has run the Hungarian economy into the ground for more than a decade but I guess Trump has a affinity to strongmen’s and grifters. I don’t think Orban survives the next election but stringer things have happened.

I don’t think the press claimed that. As far I know, Trump claimed a while ago that Iran cannot reach the US with ballistic missiles which is likely correct. Note that IRGC sent a satellite into space years ago which is technically for more demanding than a 2000 mile ballistic missile. So it must have been clear that they able to cook up something.

I think part of why we are where we are because the US has outsourced intelligence and strategy to Israel. It‘s pretty clear now ˋ- it was Israel who killed Khamenei and the other leaders. The intelligence from Israel says that Iran is close to a nuclear weapon while our own intelligence seem to contradict this. Trump is know to mistrust his own intelligence sometime in favor of what Putin says (if what he says fits his views). It was Israel who bombed the Iranian South Pars gas field with the goal to take down Iran‘s power grid and now Trump comes up with the escalation to bomb Iran‘s power plants which is the same attack vector. US intelligence is either bad and/or Trump doesn’t trust it. Doesn‘t really matter what is the case, as Israel is driving the bus here and whatever they decide next Trump likely will follow. Funny how MAGA works, should rename it in MIGA (Make Israel great again), the country that never sent a single soldier to US led wars (for various reasons). Funny how this works. https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/84113/why-hasnt-israel-fought-alongside-america-in-any-of-its-wars-in-the-middle-east

Was looking at DFH as sort of a deep value play since it’s now at ~90% of tangible book. Their inventory turnover is indeed higher (indicating efficient use of capital) than DHI and LN B with gross margins improving. This does not look like a business that should trade below book.

Looks like DHI forecast now for 2026 is for ~12% EBIT margins with falling revenues , so not too far off my ~11% “normalized” or through earnings estimate, depending on where we are in the cycle (I have personally no clue). Due to the recent decline in housing stocks some interring opportunists are propping up in terms of valuation: FBIN (locks, water fixtures). Management seems ho hum. They are building a subscription business with water sensor that could be high margin and interesting long term. MAS - similar to FBIN but management seems better. More buybacks. Some family control still. FBIN and MAS are fairly capital light. DFH - supposedly capital light and fast growing homebuilders. no trading below tangible book. Seems cheap. LEN B - a large home builder trading for around book value (small premium to tangible book). Family controlled. Solidly profitable. AOS - strong position in water heaters and heat pumps. Less cyclical than most other business and long term tailwinds. BLDR - wood framing and whole sales business supplying builders. Very cyclical. Does not look cheap yet to me because normalized earnings are unclear.

Yes, the few people who work in the oil industry will benefit somewhat, if they get a raise. I think 98% of people in the US will simply pay more for energy and later goods (due to inflation). Maybe Trump is implementing a windfall tax on energy and use the income tax to re- distribute excess income to consumers via windfall tax dividend to make it “fairer”. Then it could be neutral to consumers overall. Shy of this, it’s just going to be more of a k- shaped economy.

How does being energy independent help the average consumer in the US who has to pay more for energy and suffer from higher inflation while a few owners oil and energy cos will make much more money? High energy prices are net negative even for states like Texas nowadays. Texas also has seen some of the highest rises in gas prices since the Gulf war erupted.

Steely Dan had an record named Pretzel Logic and I always wondered what this meant:

And it just took 22 days to get to Baghdad and 22 years later we are still in Iraq.

To take down the electricity is one of the most efficient way to cripple an economy. I also mentioned that Iran’s electricity grid is powered by NG predominantly which is why the Israel’s have destroyed facilities of Irans major gas field which points to the same attack vector. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-strikes-major-iranian-gas-field-tehran-vows-to-hit-gulf-energy-sites-in-kind/ I think Israel is the brain here and the US the hammer.

Who claimed that Iran has any credibility here?

Respect:

The most likely outcome of any war is both side lose.

Except a large pile of money and potentially the economy going into reverse. Maybe few hundred casualties too when it’s alls said and done.

Everyone who consumes oil or oil products has to pay more. That includes every consumer in the USA, Canada, Europe, China, India. Yes, the US has their own oil supply so people who own these assets will make more money. We won’t see lines at gas stations, but the same is true in Europe. We just have to pay up more. The biggest losers are the gulf states, China, India and developing countries where people have less buying power and hence see a proportionally larger impact.

If Iran were able to assassinate leaders of the US government, would we come to the negotiating table?

Thats a lesson that Trump never was taught or he didn’t absorb it and it shows.

It is a mistake to assume the other actor in a war is not rational . I think the regime acts rational in the terms of their self interest and their known ideological framework. “Rationality” in politics is not an absolute framework, it depends on what you know currently and what your goals are. What can be rational to one party can be irrational to another.

I find see this until now but there is a side theatre where especially the IDF bombs the Iranian marine assets (including ships that supposedly transport drones from Russia to Iran) in the Kaspian sea. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-890567 Also it was not clear to me is that the why the IDF bombed the Iranian South Pars gas field. It made news that Iranian retaliated against the liquefaction assets of the same field on the Quatar side. The reason the IDF did this is because Iran needs this gas for their power grid , which runs mostly on NG. It is quite possible that the shortage of NG leads to power outages later in Iran. This would be highly destabilizing for their economy and the regime. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-19-26?post-id=cmmxc50s700013b6r938d1l4h FWIW, I think the Marines being sent over to the Gulf area are likely to be used to occupy Kharg and use it a leverage against the Iran regime.

The problem is that every action will create a counter action (actio =reactio in physics). What this counter reaction will be like remains to be seen. I think it’s naive to think we can just leave tomorrow and call it a day.

North Korea literally send an army to fight in Ukraine. They also build a nuclear reactor capable of producing plutonium in Syria for the Assad regime (who had an inclination to use unconventional weapons as we later found out) that was destroyed by Israel (Al Kinar reactor, Operation Orchard). https://www.nti.org/education-center/facilities/al-kibar-nuclear/ This stuff never made the news much because the truth came out so much later. Syria never admitted to build this reactor so they didn’t complain when Israel destroyed it.

The Saudi’s have a backup plan, it’s the pipeline across the peninsula to the Red Sea. the issue is that Houthi’s contesting the entry in the red see on one side and the Suez canal is not large and deep enough for the large tanker. Theoretically this pipeline could move a large chunk (5M barrel ) if the Saudi capacity but I think it takes a while to get this going. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-red-sea-oil-exports-set-jump-38-million-bpd-march-shipping-data-shows-2026-03-18/