Spekulatius

I sort of like BHP and RIO. SCCO is in Peru which is iffy politically. I think you could invest in BHP and RIO and do Ok over the cycle if you buy at a good price (maybe lower than current prices) just from the dividends alone. Don’t expect any multiple expansion. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-ruling-party-turns-castillo-calls-president-step-down-2023-2022-04-29/

Just a reminder that even if disruption is possible, it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. The super app in the US exists already and is called the iPhone!

They are down because the price of commodities is trending down. It's Munger's elevator (going up or down matters, not which level you are). 80% of the success in commodities is being correct about the direction of the commodity prices, not because you analyze a company correctly (the missing 20%).

Whether right or wrong doesn't matter. Politicians on both sides believe it and so does Powel. He has the mandate so squash inflation, so we are going to see a Mini Volker 1981 playing out.

That one could become a cigarette butt literally.

I bought a little PBR-A today. Drinking the dividend cool aid as long as it lasts. I don't mind commodity plays, but I like them for the capital return, preferably over dividends (holding stocks in the IRA). Those who think any of this is a compounder will probably get wrecked. Something like BHP or RIO on the metal side might work too. One thing is for sure, the big cos are operating more on cash returns and are now paying out excess earnings, unlike in the past where they tended to deworsify (just look at BHP's energy adventure). I think over a cycle one could get a high single digit dividend return at current prices and higher if the shares go lower. I prefer cash over buybacks because management will always buy back stocks when they are flush and the stocks are pricy and stop the buyback when things get a bit iffy and the shares cheap. BHP has one of the best iron ore reserves that exist in a political safe space (together with VALE), so they should be able to make money throughout the cycle. These are the plays to look for when prices go much lower.

If you read the Riksbank article it's not about allocating capital (making loans), it's about keeping control of the currency the payment infrastructure and creating having access to make payments that are swift and digitized for everyone. If you think about this, the US banking system fails miserably on this. ACH payments take 3 days plus and many are underbanked and have no access to payments conveniently. They need to go to a Walmart desk and pay up to pay their utility bill. So if there is a public or government sponsored fast payment system, then this could benefit quite a few people, especially when cash is phased out. These people shut out of the banking system need an alternative. Perhaps the SS (or welfare) payment in the future will have an option to get paid to a treasury account (just like treasury direct) and they also create an app (or someone else will) to allow payments from this account just like the cash app does currently. I don't see a reason why this wouldn't work, technically. The digital currency would enable this because there is no temporary lending involved because these transfers are quasi instantaneous. Current payments are involving short term loans because they are not instantaneous and take days to settle.

if you think a light recession is coming, I would switch to growth stonks and sell the commodity stocks. The commodity stocks are likely to go down the drain with lower commodity prices. I know there are a lot of energy/commodity bulls out there, but I feel this has been a momentum trade that started to unwind (imo). If you think a serious recession is coming you should not own any stocks at all.

Housing prices are affordability driven. If people can’t afford to buy, they won’t. Same if they lose their job or are afraid of job losses.

The Riksbank paper is very well worth the read. Thanks for posting. I think it is most notable that they don’t want to lose control over the payment system to private enterprises that they have no control over. I thought their remarks about the central bank losing control over their currency when private market solutions (stable coins - Libra etc) or other currencies prevalent is also interesting. The latter is more important for a smaller economy with its own currency (Swedish Krona) than for US or Euro based economies. .

Fednow is for banks. You won’t have an account with the Federal reserve and run your payment for a six pack of beer or a coffee through central bank account. We have discussed the Fednow payment utility on another thread.

That's a shoe in <pun>. Added some META.

This is true - there is a lot of filler content (or maybe niche content) out there but does it matter? there is still more good content on aggregate than there ever was. I also love some of the niche content like Scandinavian crime shows. Recently watched an Indian crime show (Aranyak) just for the cultural background and loved it. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14167344/ Before streaming it was very hard to get access to this content and now it's easy.

Buying multi family at 3% cap rates with 6% mortgages makes you a growth investor. I know a few people who have done real estate successfully over the years and they are all cash flow investors (property are cash flow positive from day one). Everything else gets you in trouble.

The e- yuan is very iffy from a privacy POV, because the Chinese central bank basically knows exactly where the digital money is and what it’s doing, if this works as advertised. So it should absolutely get forbidden in every country that cares about privacy and their citizen being watched by the Chinese central bank. Privacy is the main issue with CBDC - yes it can be done, but should it be done? It might just be better of improving the payment infrastructure and make the ACH payment almost instantaneous rather than taking 3+ days to clear. That alone would go a long way to digitize the payment system without wrecking the privacy.

This should have a shot at becoming a real movie. Maybe some scout takes notice,

Note that the central bank digital currencies have nothing to do with crypto and are not based on blockchain tech.

The internet.

@Viking Europe is the same than the US, except there is an energy security problem and labor is getting much more assertive. We will be seeing large demands for salary increases next year, to counter further inflation and the loss of purchasing power this year. The transport/railroadworker strike in the Uk and the demands from IG Metall (Metal worker Union - the largest in Germany and typically the leading one in terms of negotiations) are indications of what’s to come. Looks more and more like an inflation flywheel to me.

Apple TV is the dark horse in streaming that not many are talking about. They don't have a lot of shows, but the ones they do have are very good. "Shining girl" is a great one for example. I agree on "Stranger things". It's a cult show at this point.

I think the most likely fang to disrupt Visa/MC is Amazon. They have already many customer contacts as well as vendors payment info, as well as substantial payment infrastructure under the hood The way I think it may work is AMZN buying DFS (Discover) which has it's own payment rail. Current DFS market cap is ~$26B and they make $5B in profit (post tax) so it's dirt cheap. Even if they pay $40B its dirt cheap for AMZN to buy and hugely accreditive as is. Then they ditch JPM's card and replace it with Discover and start to boost the Discover infrastructure (which i think is behind V/MC) and build it out more. By the way, they also get a direct bank and deposits thrown in for free. I think the only reason they don't do it is regulatory pushback.

this is what the crypto version of Ocean Eleven will look like:

A lunch with Albert Einstein would definitely be worth more than $5M, since he is dead for 67 years now.

Here is one risk of heightened inflation expectations. Workers got screwed last year by having wages increase much less than inflation and are now demanding more: https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-wages/germanys-ig-metall-union-recommends-7-8-pay-rise-for-workers-idUSS8N2XQ03X I think we will see this in the USA as well. Once we get 7-8% wage increases (in line with inflation) it's off to the races.

Looks like the Ukraine will join the EU sooner than I expected: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-united-support-ukraines-candidacy-083757335.html