no_free_lunch

This seems naive. I guess it's case by case but do you think that a soldier who joined up to fight the nazi's was in the wrong? It seems they actually saved a lot of lives by putting an end to that madness.

I wouldn't ask him that specific question. You can maybe just bring up the subject and see what he is willing to say. My family who were in the wars, they said one of the things that really stood out was listening to men scream and cry for hours and hours while they were dying. If I had just asked about whether they killed someone I would have missed out on that nugget!

Pure speculation but perhaps buffet is preparing to step down. He might want this in place to take advantage of an event driven selloff.

Hover over Profile. From the dropdown pick Account Settings. Hover over Modify Profile. From the dropdown pick Buddies/Ignore List. Edit Ignore List. You can figure out the rest.

I think it's a valid point, especially for us amateurs (assuming that's what you are). Why spend the time if you can't beat the market? People will tell you how they have beat the market and I am sure they have but when you look to audited statements, it is actually really tough. Many of the managers I followed a decade ago haven't beaten the S&P or are neck and neck with it. I think your best bet is to focus on a very small number of stocks and use index funds for diversification. This is what I do. I don't have hard and fast rules on the weightings but if I can't find a stock that I am confident will beat the index, I just buy the index.

PEP. High quality company trading at 17x earnings and with a 4% yield.

The stock or the product? ;)

My experience is the average person really isn't thinking too much about bubbles. This includes some very smart and successful people. They just want to invest, they see something is moving up, they are aware that they might get killed on the position but there is a sense that everything is a bit of a gamble so what the hell. It is not really what you are after but fundamentally I just find that most investors aren't interested in applying valuation frameworks to their investments. Housing is probably an exception but then when I think of Vancouver, maybe it isn't an exception.

Anyone follow OHI? I am new to them myself and no position. The basic thesis is a health care REIT which has ran into problems with some of it's hospital operators. There was a small pullback in ffo, I think around 10%. As a result the stock has pulled way back and it is now yielding over 10%. They do have a history of raising their dividends, think they quadrupled the dividend over the past 15 years. However, they are not without issues as in the late 90's they ran into some type of stress and the stock and dividend got hit. Overall I still have a lot to learn about management and the history. The payout ratio to ffo is around 83% so the dividend is reasonably safe. Some of the complaints are around it being dead money but then you are getting paid 10%. I think it's fair compensation. The industry seems like a mixed bag with positive demographics but then the government trying to lower costs. Still just something I am thinking about.

I would probably reference Buffets hedge fund bet. I find many investors have this belief that the stock market is for amateurs but the real investors are making mint via hedge funds. http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1

Thanks for the replies. My brokerage is a IIROC member so it appears I do have some insurance against fraud. Not a big 5 bank either (they charge too high fees). I agree with Richard, in spite of the insurance it is probably best to diversify.

I currently use one of the larger Canadian discount online brokers for my trading. I am just wondering if people think that there is a need to diversify across brokers? Is it possible that due to some type of fraud whether at the company at large or by disenfranchised employee I could find I don't actually own what I think I own? Are they audited or is there some type of government oversight that reduces this risk? I know that any cash sitting around is covered by the government up to a limit but I am not sure about the securities. I do so much work against the various stocks I invest in but put almost no thought into the company actually holding my investments.

The problem is those jobs you are replacing actually pay considerably more, on average, than service jobs. Even tech jobs. Maybe less so in lumber/steel, I am not as familiar with those sectors, but O&G has $150-200k jobs available or did.

If pipelines are a no go then maybe rail is a good investment? This is a really complicated issue but I don't think the problem is attracting capital. Just look at our housing markets for instance, Canada is taking protectionist steps to slow down capital in that area. In my opinion, Canada is a safe haven and yes so is Belgium, Switzerland, etc but there are only so many safe haven countries out there. I am hoping that the weakness in the canadian dollar, stagnant local wages and boom in the US will cause enough of a wage imbalance to kick start our non commodity businesses.

It should show up eventually in shareholder equity per share, more or less. How has that performed? Higher than S&P over past 10 years, lower over past 5 years. That's my rough gauge of their culture value.

Sure BVPS is up 24% or whatever this year but it dipped down last year. Here is the BVPS values for past few years: 2017: $449 2016: $367 2015: $403 2014: $394 Very sluggish results against 2015 or 2014 numbers.

You really nailed it. What seems to have changed is their diversification efforts, the sale of some of their financial service businesses and the former CEO retiring/passing control to his kids. I am not sure this is the same company it once was.

Traded some S&P500 etf's in and bought DIS. It has a PE of 17 and a forward PE of 15 which seems ridiculously cheap compared to the S&P valuation. I think the term "brand" gets overused in investment circles but I think it applies here and you are getting that brand for free.

Knight therapeutics (gud.to). Taking on huge piles of cash when the stock is high and then just sitting on it due to a dearth of opportunities is long-term in my mind. Certainly the market hates it. The company has only been around a few years but the CEO has a track record from his prior gig at paladin labs. EDIT: +1 to Costco, Disney, Danaher, MKL, BAM. There are some other great idea in here, I will be doing digging on FRP / LAACZ

All I know is there are people much smarter than me who can't come to agreement on what it's intrinsic value is. I think it's proportional to the network of users but what does that even mean? The floor is something that you can establish, it's 0. It's just software running on a bunch of computers. If a better version comes along, it's worthless.

Major buy signal for crypto came out today. :) Still no position. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/get-ready-for-most-cryptocurrencies-to-hit-zero-goldman-says

Does the bitcoin ATM accept cash or only dispense? I see this is a good idea honestly, from a customer perspective. Might not be a great investment but it does increase the bitcoin network and given that bitcoins value is the strength of it's network this is a positive.

We are kind of on the same page here. I just don't think a 30% drop would be an issue so long as the economy is solid. The only time I was scared in my investing career was 08/09 and it was fear of the economic situation not the huge losses in my portfolio.

No, I haven't taken advantage of it, it's beautiful to watch though. I had a really good look at my watchlist and everything was so high that even now I don't find anything too compelling. S&P500 is printing $110 in earnings so we are still at 23-24 PE, it's tough. cherzeca, I agree that political deadlock is a great thing. I'm a bit libertarian so government unable to function seems okay. Not sure what that will mean for fannie but that's another thread. Much as I would like it to be otherwise, this whole crash feels artificial. The economy is doing just fine, global economies are recovering and there must be huge pent up demand outside of the US. I feel it's just the valuation was ahead of itself.

This bubble popping is like a shot of adrenaline to my investor instincts. Still no great opportunities but some things are crashing more than others so at least now there is hope. Still need another 5% drop or so before I will be able to buy.