muscleman

This is concerning. Do you have any clue when this is gonna end? I just know WA seems to have ended this, and a few other states. But not sure if it is still in most states.

I called a local business today who said they are understaffed and I asked about stimulus checks. They said the stimulus checks just stopped so hopefully that helps get people to work. I wonder if that's the case nation wide or is it just WA that stopped the stimulus checks?

Anyone knows when the stimulus checks will stop? Right now there is a lot of job openings and the employers can't find enough workers because people make more money sitting at their homes. This is not good for the country.

Right now the FED is still doing massive amount of QE because of high unemployment rate, but we have high unemployment rate with even more job openings than unemployed people is because the government keeps handing out free money and people would earn less if they go to work instead of staying at home. This becomes a catch 22. Does anyone have any insights on when this would end? If this doesn't end, then we will see a historic asset bubble.

I think the rate spike is over. It started in December when no one believed it would spike, and it should end right now when everyone is convinced about the spike.

I don't know how this is a comparison to the current rates situation.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-likely-to-keep-rates-near-zero-as-recovery-picks-up-11619602202?mod=hp_lead_pos4 "Fed officials have said they would hold rates steady until the labor market is back to full strength and inflation has reached the central bank’s goal of averaging 2%. Chairman Jerome Powell has said those conditions are unlikely to materialize this year, and most Fed officials indicated last month that they expect to hold off on raising rates until 2024 at the earliest." Does anyone know any historical examples of similar irresponsible actions like this? I would like to study those cases.

Fed wants to see the trailing 12 months of inflation 2%+ before they consider raising the rates. I think that will still take some time.

I kept getting 503 access denied error, but it seems to be fixed now. Does anyone else experience that?

Hard to say. The whole stock market is set up for a straight line blow up move into August. FNMAS may just be getting lifted by the tide. Or maybe some insiders know something and started buying.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer-brazil/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-neutralizes-brazil-variant-in-lab-study-idUSKBN2B02JC The Pfizer vaccine is still effective against that. I think JNJ's only 50% effective. Moderna is more likely to be in consistency with Pfizer.

That's exactly why I think the top will be in this August, not now.  ;)

I've been making the case for a replay of the 2000 dot com bubble top in 2021 for a few months. But it is usually not this easy (March 2000 and exactly March 2021?). I think we are building a bottom here for one last strong leg up before we get that kind of bubble top.

We have the record number of people buying houses unseen in the US right now. Must be the same in Canada.

Even in Trump's administration, the DOJ kept fighting against us, so what would you expect in a Biden administration? Of course it is not a good sign but do you even expect the other side not to lie in the court in order to justify their actions?

I find it hard to understand why people think inflation -> higher rates -> lower housing prices. Real hard assets are supposed to go up in a real inflation scenario, isn't it? Same for stocks. Check Venezala's stock market for example. Inflation through the roof. Stock index through the roof. Same happened in 1948 in China.

Thank you! I appreciate it

Welcome back to the trade. I think the general consensus of the rank order of possible outcomes for the SCOTUS decision is as follows: 1) FHFA unconstitutionally structured, no backward relief; NWS violates APA with remand for remedy back to lower court. 2) FHFA unconstitutionally structured, backward relief; (APA ruling doesn't matter in this scenario) 3) FHFA constitutionally structured, NWS legal I view this as very positive. I would expect JPS to retest highs since 2008 in either scenario 1 or 2. I would be very interested in other views, particularly if anyone is considering the possibility that SCOTUS somehow rules on direct claims for shareholders who held at the time of the NWS. Michael Kao obliquely made reference to this in one of recent tweet threads although I believe he puts it at low probability. Thank you! What's the expected timeline for SCOTUS to rule on this thing? Sometime in September? April?

I bought a small FNMAS at 5.7. (2.5% of portfolio). This is a mid to low confidence entry so I wouldn't go big. I don't see anything positive fundamentally from this thread, so I am a bit cautious, but the technical setup looks interesting indeed. Please correct me if you think something positive is coming.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/03/gun-sales-january-background-checks/ 80% jump and the third-highest monthly total on record. Looks like two of my 3 predictions came true. That is too quick. Last one is housing. We will revisit in a few years.

What were the technical analysis that you touched upon? By the way - thanks for alerting the board at the time, wished I've seen it! Lots of data points that I can't go over in one post, just like you can't summarize Value Investing in one post here.

My biggest achievement in 2020 was to sell 90% of my stocks right before the COVID crash as there were many technical indicators showing the top. But I still had a 4% draw down on my account as the remaining positions dropped like a stone, which is a tragic because I had too much fundamental belief in them. My biggest mistake was to choose not to believe in my technical analysis after the end of March when it says I should be buying aggressively. Being in an inner circle with classmates from Wuhan's CDC and Hospitals, the fundamentals clouded my view too much and scared the shit out of me to buy. I was ramping up exposure on stocks too slowly and ended the year with only a 11% gain.

I expect low debt asset light growth stocks to continue to do well if rates go up. The reason is simple. When inflations kick in, if a company wants to maintain a given ROE, for an asset heavy company, they have to put in a ton of assets to maintain the ROE, but for asset light growth stocks, they don't have to put in much additional capital.

It is mind blowing that the 10 yr T-Bill rates spiked again this morning, AFTER fed promised to keep rates low yesterday for a few more years. If fed can't stop it, then I wonder if the rates will spike really hard.

I opened this thread back in December because my technical analysis shows a sharp rate spike for the whole year, but I was puzzled how that could happen because FED is supposed to be able to buy bonds to keep the rate low. So far FED hasn't been able to keep the 10 yr yield low. It was 0.9 back then but 1.3 now. But this is just the beginning. It should continue to rise. I did not trade this because people say "never fight against the FED"