muscleman

65%. I am pretty bearish on the next few weeks to months.

Yeah, but those were OUR dates, based on assumptions that sometimes turned out wrong. The question is whether Mnuchin ever had a "date" other than last minute. We may never know, but while time is running out, the last minute has not yet arrived. What makes you believe something will happen at the last minute? That’s another one of OUR dates? These papers are like call option that on January 20, imo. At least the executive action part of the value will expire. I am not sure what the lawsuit part is worth. Even if executive action were to occur, there is a strong likelihood that it will just be reversed. Yep. Now Dems control House, Senate, and presidency. Nothing will be done in the next 4 years at least.

So inflation -> fed raising rates -> housing price goes down. Deflation -> fed lowering rates + printing -> housing price goes up? I would think inflation cause housing price and any commodities to go up while deflation would cause them to go down?

I was quite cautious about a potential top here as well, but the IBKR's clients' combined net short position makes me thing it is going higher. Also keep in mind that Cardboard was one of the worst investors in this forum, according to a prior thread of something like "masters of CoBF". By inverting whatever he says, it might provide an edge. Nothing personal to Carboard. He probably have improved a lot recently.

That's 5% a week. Totally doable over the course of the next 30 years. ;D

I was initially expecting an ugly January but now I expect a flat January with some side way moves after seeing this: It could be a great opportunity to load up the boat for the next leg up.

Thank you for the discussion guys. It is mind blowing to me how complicated an answer can be and I am unable to understand what Jim is saying. ::) Thank you to Chris's short version. Yeah it was my understanding too that the Fed sets the short term rate, which the banks can borrow from it at that rate for as much as they want. But if they are also buying long term treasuries, then would there be a case where the long term rates would go up? Would that ever happen unless FED stops buying those long term treasuries? It blows my mind how low the 30 yr mortgage rates are right now. It was 5% in 2009 and it looks low. Then it was 4%, and then 3% looks like a steal, and now it is 2.6%.

Did you switch to technical analysis? I remember you used to focus on O&G stocks.

Could anyone please share some thoughts?

I only have limited understanding that the Fed can set the Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% and it seems like they will keep this rate low for the next few years. But I noticed the 30 year mortgage rate, which has very high correlation with the 10 and 30 year T-bond rates, have been steadily falling. I wonder what impacts that rate and what scenarios will lead that rate to go up instead of down?

Wait for the news to be published for MM to tell us retrospectively what we should have done based on his signals SnarkyPuppy, I like your, um, snarky response ;) I am here to make money, not to use the thread as a time killer. The signal remains no buy.

And the answer is that nothing will be done before they leave. They have to think about their future as they leave the office. They could be offered highly paid jobs like the other "revolving door" politicians who implemented the NWS. Of course if that's not enough incentive, what just happened to Brian Kemp's daughter's bf could be enough incentive.

My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) "You seem to be a Biden supporter". People who think in these terms (sadly, a growing % of the population) have actual brain damage. Get out of this thread and argue about your political team elsewhere- nobody cares. wow.... That's rude and arrogant. ;D

My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Very strong analysis. Thanks for your contribution. You are welcome. I went over a lot of CoBF threads over the years and found it intriguing that the longer the threads, the less likelihood that the idea works out. Then I told myself that my analysis has to be short on every investment. I first have to get a buy setup on my chart, and then I have to have a short but strong thesis on the fundamentals. If I can't keep it short, I pass.

My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;)

My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well.

Thank you Chris. I thought state congress is the same thing as state legislature but it seems like there is no such a thing as state congress.

Trump has far more urgent things to do in the next 35 days than releasing FnF. Given the alt left's attitude toward him, I think his entire business may face bankruptcy soon once he leaves the POTUS position. The left will show the country whoever goes against them will end up bankrupt, and probably in prison, so in the future no more Trumps will show up. Only RINOs and alt left socialists. But I just don't see how Trump can turnaround himself at this moment. I feel really sad for him and for this country. Good thing Trump already has a lot of practice with going bankrupt! Even before the left hated him! And maybe all those colleagues of his who are in jail can help him navigate the internal social hierarchies if he joins them. As an American, I haven't seen anything out if the judicial system that concerns me just yet. I don't think the case with Texas was ignored or thrown out for political reasons - I think it's because it's become evident through the dozens of other lawsuits that there is nothing to substantiate the claims. We, as a democracy, cannot throw out votes just because we don't like them and the SC has seemingly done the correct thing in response. The real threat here is what it's been for the last 8 years I've owned this - timing/delays. I can only hope this is coming to and end one way or another. What you said is completely wrong. The Texas case is based on one simple FACT, which is that only congress has the authority to modify the law. The state governors have no authority to modify the law. Those four states modified the law by the governor, with strong objection from their state congresses. This is a black and white case. We can spend hours arguing whether the "fraud evidence" floating on the internet is true or fake, but the above is FACT. Have you seen the lawsuit from PA congress about that? They did it when the PA governor changed the election law in early 2020, and the PA court said the PA congress has no standing because there is no harm yet. They sued again right after election and the PA court said the case is out because it is too late and they should have sued earlier. Does that not make you concerned about the US judicial system?

Trump has far more urgent things to do in the next 35 days than releasing FnF. Given the alt left's attitude toward him, I think his entire business may face bankruptcy soon once he leaves the POTUS position. The left will show the country whoever goes against them will end up bankrupt, and probably in prison, so in the future no more Trumps will show up. Only RINOs and alt left socialists. But I just don't see how Trump can turnaround himself at this moment. I feel really sad for him and for this country.

oh god, maybe is time to sell.... The time to sell was in Nov 2016. This has been by far one of my worst investments/biggest wastes of time. I made the mistake of buying this in 2013/4 and adhering to the "real investors dont trade" narrative. That Mnuchin would take care of the hedge fund guys. I switched all common to preferreds a few years back. But the truth is that unless you're simply trading this like muscleman, its been a total dud. But whatever. Cant win em all. Just to clarify, after May 2019, this is the first buy signal I got this week, but it is a weak signal. Given it is a weak signal and given how much confidence I have lost in the judicial system, I am not buying this time.

Yeah exactly. The justices are being heavily influenced by the politicians and got pushed their way. I suspect that they got personally threatened too, especially after GA governor Brian Kemp's daughter's bf who died in an "accident" (car exploded) one day after Brian called for signature verification on the ballots. Before this 2020 election I thought the US judicial system is not as corrupt as I hope so I invested in FnF preferred. But I don't have any expectation for that now.

Some theoretical possibilities: - Plaintiffs were asking too much pre-SCOTUS hearing (i.e. the full boat, sr pref write down Plus overage) due to over-confidence - He doesn't intend to settle. Rather enter into a PSPA amendment with Calabria outside of legal world - Good public policy for SCOTUS to decide on FHFA head constitutionality even if PSPA amendment meets Collins' demands re: NWS and sr pref - He thinks trump might still win Or, more pessimistically, he plans to do nothing on Sr pref between now and jan20. Has anyone tracked the SCOTUS ruling on the Texas vs Pennsylvania case? If black and white cases like that one can be thrown out, I can't see how they will rule in favor of shareholders for FnF..... Trump's entire re-election hope seems to be on SCOTUS and it is a loss. Just like FnF shareholder's entire hope seems to be on SCOTUS at this moment. But there is a powerful magic hand that pulls the dolls on the front stage, and those dolls start to dance however the powerful hand orders them to dance. I don't know what else to say... My charts finally get a buy setup right now after the 2019 May top. But I have completely lost faith in the fundamentals.

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot. I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently... Right. Seattle Suburbs are white hot not only because of the virus but also because of the socialism movement in Seattle, with BLM protesters matching into communities and yelling door to door "Move your white ass out of the house and give your stocks to us, because it belongs to us"

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

I see some home builders are growing at 6% and some are at 20%. Not sure if there is any risk with the higher grower ones like the banks do. Some builders claim to be "asset light" and I don't understand how a home builder can be asset light. I wonder if anyone could share some insights?