muscleman

Anybody tracking mRNA's vaccine trial enrollment rates? I am pretty upset that they used to enroll 4-5k patients per week but has been super slow since mid September. It is down to 2k a week and then 1k a week. https://www.modernatx.com/cove-study With nearly 3 million volunteers signed up for COVID vaccine trials, I don't understand why this is the case except for intentional delays.

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads. No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject: “Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it” “A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any' https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf Please check page 1261 - table at top of page for "Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset" Mask use for Covid Positive group: Often: 14.4%; Always 70.6% (Total of Often + Always use of mask 85%) Mask use for control (negative) group: Often: 14.5%; Always 74.2% (Total of Often + Always use of mask 88.7%) I know what the numbers were for a tiny study of 150 people. But that study does not indicate that "that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it" [Covid-19]. People who wear masks got a large amount of virus on the outside of the mask. When they take it down later, their figures are full of virus. So it wouldn't be surprised that they get infected from that later. This doesn't mean masks are useless though. It just means that people need to learn how to do it properly. In case you guys still care about the market instead of just trolling Trump.... I think the fact that COVID cases are going up again is quite bullish for the market, but it is possible to have continued sideways actions for 2 more weeks before I am comfortable raising my exposure from 40% to 90%.

@muscleman, and others who have market timing investment philosophies: I'm curious about the latest wave of cases and it's impact on market timing. What are the US and European markets correlating with then, because they don't seem to be correlating with this rise in cases, or now with the rising hospitalization and death numbers or even some localized shutdowns? Is there any metric of the pandemic that they are correlating to? Were we just dealing with liquidity issues that the Fed actions improved, or does solvency come into the picture to impact them as the next wave arrives and this drags on? I already said about 2-3 weeks ago that I was turning bullish again, but with low confidence, so I turned from 100% cash to 60% cash. I have all the posts in this thread that you can go back and verify. I was aiming for 50% cash but there was 1-2 positions that shot up right before I decided to buy. >:( You have too many questions that I just felt overwhelmed to answer. :'( I can try to answer 1-2. In short, initially when the COVID broke out, it was really bearish for the market in March. Everyone was scared. But a few weeks later the fact that COVID is so bad made FED QE like the end of the world, so continued COVID cases make it bullish for the market because FED has the political cover to do more QE without being criticized. At the end of August, I was expecting sharp drop in COVID cases, which would be bearish for the market again because FED will no longer have the political cover for QE. But 3 weeks ago it seems like cases are not dropping as fast as I expected, so I am bullish again. Without QE, it is like a plant that can grow steadily and slowly in soil, but with QE, no matter how healthy a plant is, the moment it is turned off, it is like a hydroponic plant, which will start to have problems in hours, not weeks.

Virus with Wuhan lab........ Didn't you read my comment about Zhengli Shi? Her publications are the primary reasons that people are thinking about virus escaping there. Mail in voter fraud: You can't just close your eyes and ignore things like this. There are not like a few cameras per intersaction like those Chinese cities. So if I see one roach, I know there are likely many more under there. https://wgntv.com/news/us-postal-worker-in-new-jersey-arrested-accused-of-dumping-mail-and-election-ballots/ 3rd wave: I was wrong about the prediction about 20k daily at the end of August. I should have realized that different states have different situations. I still think GA, FL, TX, NY won't have another wave. They reached similar level of total case/population and GA, FL, TX have been open for 2 months. Other states have not reached this level of total case/population so it is possible to have another wave.

Zerohedge has had an unusual focus on the bioweapon thesis. There have been many stories including this one: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-secret-history-coronavirus-bioweapon Out of curiosity, in the event that the thesis is true (ie the virus is man-made and accidentally or even as part of a human plan, was released as a 'weapon'), this would have potential consequences for 'reparation'. But how does this change the defensive strategy, ie how to limit the damage, relatively speaking, in comparison to other countries for example, from a data point of view? imo, not in any respect. but the veracity of this claim is perhaps the single most important foreign policy issue today...and it is not being discussed as such, although trump has been alluding to it...put another way, how would you react to a bombing conducted by China against the US that resulted in 200k deaths? I know this is being provocative but my intent is to provoke thought. my understanding of the bioscience is quite limited, but sufficient to appreciate these claims as legitimate I disagree with Zerohedge. My classmate works in a flu lab in cold spring harbor in NY. She said before 2012, they've been doing a lot of things similar to what this Wuhan Virology lab's been accused of doing. They genetically mutate the flu virus to see how to make it more deadly. Later it was banned because it is too dangerous and doesn't really contribute to science a lot. That's the fact. The rumor part is that a lot of this kind of research was outsourced to China. The scientist Zhengli Shi (Wuhan virology institute's Vice Director) was obsessed with this kind of research because it is banned in most other countries, so if she did it, it would be so easy to publish top notch papers. She did publish a paper in 2015 regarding genetically swapping the S protein of a SARS like virus and then the virus can infect human. (That's fact, not rumor) So that's all I know. I still think (without evidence) that this whole COVID thing is an accident from Wuhan Virology Institute. The director of Wuhan Virology Institute is not very good. So I wouldn't be surprised of mismanagement of the lab.

I didn't realize you could see the future! With such a gift, can you confirm if there will be a "third wave" as we emerge flu season, or if COVID has run its course? Please, be definitive. Nothing is definitive. But we can draw inferences from the data that we see and from what we know about past epidemics. I don't think it's useful to draw causation when there's ample direct evidence refuting it and a more sensible answer is apparent. Another thing: we don't have the luxury of waiting until we know things for certain. Policy-making is never done with a crystal ball. The stakes today are never higher because of the immense trade-offs that society has seemingly willfully accepted as a necessary evil to apply the consensus-favored policy of today. No one could see the future. But that doesn't prevent us from making educated guesses. That's exactly what investors do. People who use this excuse for not making calls should not be investors. Instead they should be politicians who only look backward.

AKA "herd immunity" 1. Arizona never had a state wide mask mandate. 2. A lot of the restrictions were soft, not well-enforced and unlikely to have had significant effect in reducing interaction. Google mobility data in the state was fairly consistent over the summer and in some counties are now even above 2019 baseline levels. I mean, forget Arizona - look at what's happened in Florida. Even less mitigation and their hospitalizations are down nearly 80% from peak levels. I don't understand why people refuse to acknowledge the basic pattern of how epidemics unfold and eventually recede. Why don't we just call it endemicity threshold (ET) rather than herd immunity threshold? Since HIT has become so toxic and politicized. Because it doesn't fit their propaganda that Trump is such a mess and COVID is really scary and they should shutdown everything and kill the economy. And BTW, the economy is so bad. It must be Trump's fault. I already stopped arguing with these folks. They are not going to change their mind no matter what. BTW, since this is an investing forum, I want to point out that the best investors I've seen are always able to change their minds and be flexible. They could be very bullish and a few weeks later be very bearish and a few weeks later change to very bullish again. That's the goal I am aiming for. Trying to have maximum open mind and flexibility and be ready to admit mistakes.

Back in August, Trump haters were laughing at GA's "chaotic school reopening" where few wear masks, and predicted that it would not end up well. Today they say GA is doing well because they wear masks and have schools closed. :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

Yes, you've been wrong about this for a long time. I know you've sorta apologized for this. But you predicted 20k daily cases by the end of August. It is October and the U.S. is still over 40k cases. Cases are up since your mea culpa. Now you are using NYC as proof of herd immunity when they just partially re-opened indoor dining? And already have early signs of a second wave? That's funny because i kept saying GA is the key test bed for my herd immunity hypothesis and based on infection cases/population, NYC should have reached herd immunity a long time ago. But it doesn't matter. It doesn't fit your propoganda.

That's what I kept saying for a long time. We already have herd immunity in NYC and a few other places. But people here who desperately want to see Trump failing and therefore having strong confirmation bias kept pointing to the 80% infection rate for achieving herd immunity.

Why not just use the broker for wire transfers? I know IBKR and others support wire

A lot of things happened after 2017.

The people leaving tend to be poorer and get replaced by immigrants. That’s why CA’s population doesn’t shrink, despite outmigration.. That’s also why the often cited cost of Uhauls outbound CA is do much higher than inbound ones because immigrants ( and richer people) don’t use Uhauls for moving. Really? I saw a lot of articles regarding rich people leaving CA because they can afford to but poor people don't easily find a new job in other states so they are stuck. I don't want to paste a bunch of links here but if you just Google Rich leaving CA, you'll find a lot. This is incredible: "Why would rich people come to CA if they know you are gonna tax like that?" "Because it is California!" This law maker must think CA is the center of the universe!

Perhaps you both are right - it might help these red states "fail upwards"... I mean, Texas and Florida will need more productive citizens if they ever hope to match NY & CA's national GDP contribution of 22%, up from the relatively paltry 14% that they currently contribute. Further, perhaps states which care for their citizens' health may be a factor in the above GDP contribution. What's the old saying, "Health is wealth" ? UNH State health ranking: https://assets.americashealthrankings.org/app/uploads/ahr_2019annualreport.pdf New york: 11th Cali: 12th Florida: 33rd Texas: 34th Touting a state's success by GDP == Touting a company's success based on large revenue. It doesn't matter how much cash it is burning and how many employees want to leave the company. Look at the revenue! We are a huge success! FL and TX's share of popn = 15%, share of GDP 14% CA and NY's share of popn =18%, share of GDP 23% and the divergence is growing despite the net population migration to the above 2. GDP per capita and other related measures (education levels, health indicators etc) are correlated and are widely considered to be a reflection of overall quality of life. http://gppreview.com/2020/02/21/growing-divide-red-states-vs-blue-states/ Advancing standards of living, on a net basis, come with increasing costs of living (housing etc) which has and will tend to cause a reversion to the mean, assuming no unusual resistance. The evolution over time of GDP per capita in California compared to FL and TX is interesting: https://www.opendatanetwork.com/entity/0400000US12-0400000US06/Florida-California/economy.gdp.per_capita_gdp?year=2018 https://www.opendatanetwork.com/entity/0400000US48-0400000US06/Texas-California/economy.gdp.per_capita_gdp?year=2018#:~:text=GDPAPI&text=The%20last%20measured%20GDP%20per,Texas%20was%20%2459%2C674%20in%202018. Capacity to grow GDP per capita and trends in NY indicate that policy decisions need to be competently made and based on a cost-effective rational process, irrespective of other ideological factors. The virus entered the NY State at the same time as on the West Coast. The relative performance has been largely negative for the NY area. The NY area has natural disadvantages (population density, high proportion of mass transit use, close to major international and high-volume airports, poorer and high risk-factors health segments, more unequal distribution of wealth and health coverage, relatively poor public hospital network) but the major issue were policy mistakes involving a delayed application of cost-effective measures and an initial mixed and confused message. On a net basis, i would say there continues to be a lot to learn from California (wealth, quality of life, handling of coronavirus etc).. If CA is such a great place, why are there record amount of people leaving?

Yea I actually just exchanged messages and emails with a few folks over the weekend and this morning on this rising risk. We are entering flu season. Everyone has their minds made up about a second wave. The EU countries are already chomping at the bit to lock everyone down again(MOAR POWER!) Lockdowns kill businesses. So that will have some adverse and material effect. Now what if Biden wins? One of his first actions upon entering the office would be shutting down the country from January til June....I wouldn't "go all cash". But I'd put some trades on that compensate you for this risk. I still stand by my hypothesis of herd immunity. FL, TX, GA all reopened for a while and cases are still trending down. There will not be another wave. Of course if there is for these states, I will apologize. That shows my confidence level. :) I made a big bet by going all cash in the end of August because COVID is improving fast and I didn't expect further good news to come. People on the board say it is impossible to predict market movements based on COVID. I think it is part of the factors. It is important to look at a variety of data sets. Most of them are unrelated to COVID. But COVID does play a very important role. I think the market may form a temporary bottom soon this week (low confidence), and form a major bottom after election (mid confidence). My theory is that the market has to fall far enough first to scare people of the dire consequences of a Biden win, so they come out on election day to vote for Trump. But with millions of mail ballots with very loose standards for verifications, I have low confidence of electrion fraud. You may ask which side is doing the fraud. Well, just look at which states are relaxing the standards. It is too obvious. If there were no such frauds, I'd have high confidence of a major bottom in early November. But now it is hard to say. Note: Some people say if the stock market goes up, then the sitting president wins. Otherwise he loses. That's what happened historically. But I don't think that's the case this time. Trump is not your ordinary president, and he has been playing the fear factor very well. If the stock market continues to fall, I expect him to tweet about how the market is scared of a Biden win. Looks like we got the bottom in. I am bullish again, especially seeing a bunch of investors selling in the last two weeks quoting concerns for election results dragging on etc. "Don’t panic. The time to sell is before the crash, not after." - Sir John Templeton

Perhaps you both are right - it might help these red states "fail upwards"... I mean, Texas and Florida will need more productive citizens if they ever hope to match NY & CA's national GDP contribution of 22%, up from the relatively paltry 14% that they currently contribute. Further, perhaps states which care for their citizens' health may be a factor in the above GDP contribution. What's the old saying, "Health is wealth" ? UNH State health ranking: https://assets.americashealthrankings.org/app/uploads/ahr_2019annualreport.pdf New york: 11th Cali: 12th Florida: 33rd Texas: 34th Touting a state's success by GDP == Touting a company's success based on large revenue. It doesn't matter how much cash it is burning and how many employees want to leave the company. Look at the revenue! We are a huge success!

This is sad. I encountered a youtube video that I think describes these socialists well. They destroy a city by paying out insane amount of benefits. Then they move to the next good place. (CA, NY people moving to FL, TX and turning them from red to purple. Will they turn blue some day?)

I don't know how to assess the risk now. China clearly wanted the war but Russia just sent a large amount of troops to the border as the warning. ::)

Same thing happening in the blue states in the US. Governors using COVID to gain huge power to control people's life.

Yea I actually just exchanged messages and emails with a few folks over the weekend and this morning on this rising risk. We are entering flu season. Everyone has their minds made up about a second wave. The EU countries are already chomping at the bit to lock everyone down again(MOAR POWER!) Lockdowns kill businesses. So that will have some adverse and material effect. Now what if Biden wins? One of his first actions upon entering the office would be shutting down the country from January til June....I wouldn't "go all cash". But I'd put some trades on that compensate you for this risk. I still stand by my hypothesis of herd immunity. FL, TX, GA all reopened for a while and cases are still trending down. There will not be another wave. Of course if there is for these states, I will apologize. That shows my confidence level. :) I made a big bet by going all cash in the end of August because COVID is improving fast and I didn't expect further good news to come. People on the board say it is impossible to predict market movements based on COVID. I think it is part of the factors. It is important to look at a variety of data sets. Most of them are unrelated to COVID. But COVID does play a very important role. I think the market may form a temporary bottom soon this week (low confidence), and form a major bottom after election (mid confidence). My theory is that the market has to fall far enough first to scare people of the dire consequences of a Biden win, so they come out on election day to vote for Trump. But with millions of mail ballots with very loose standards for verifications, I have low confidence of electrion fraud. You may ask which side is doing the fraud. Well, just look at which states are relaxing the standards. It is too obvious. If there were no such frauds, I'd have high confidence of a major bottom in early November. But now it is hard to say. Note: Some people say if the stock market goes up, then the sitting president wins. Otherwise he loses. That's what happened historically. But I don't think that's the case this time. Trump is not your ordinary president, and he has been playing the fear factor very well. If the stock market continues to fall, I expect him to tweet about how the market is scared of a Biden win.

A lot of home owners are unable to pay their mortgage now. Also increasing number of renters unable to pay rent. I wonder how this may affect FnF since they guarantee the mortgages?

I am shocked to see this. Is it too late to nominate a supreme court justice before election?

I'd like to provide some updates on the Chinese vaccines. It is currently in phase 3 trial. But there are already under half a million "elite" people who got the shots. I have a friend who got a shot and said he had diarrhea for a whole week. He did not test for antibodies. The other friend's boss got a shot and tested for antibodies and it was negative. >:( They both took the type of vaccine that contains the dead virus, not the vector one. My friends thought the dead virus one is more promising than the vector one so they took that.

From zero to 50% War risk based on a fact that everyone new already. This makes no sense to me whatsoever. This was a stupid but in the end inconsequential incident. I think chances of war are very remote. Based on a fact that everyone knows? What fact? The fact that China suddenly started to acknowledge its heavy loss in the June conflict is quite new and only in Chinese media. Do you read those? Yes we all knew China lost soldiers in June but the fact that it refused to acknowledge that back then implies that it had no intention to escalate. Now is the exact opposite. It wants to escalate.

I am bumping the probability of the war risk up again to 50%. China has finally acknowledged a lot of death during the June border conflict. This could be a prelude before the war.