Hoodlum

Unfortunately, those trying to sustain/grow their market share now, will likely regret that decision with the next large Cat event. It would seem that the Cat Bonds are helping to drive down the pricing as well. I have been concerned about how well funded these instruments would be during a large Cat event, as there seems to be very little controls in place for this. Fairfax will continue to buy back as many share as possible at this price. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/catastrophe-bonds-huge-market-gains-put-reinsurers-on-backfoot

This article provide a good summary of the Eurolife acquisition by Eurobank and how it will benefit the bank. It is also interesting to hear how seamless the integration of Eurolife will be. It looks like Eurobank is also in line for a Ratings upgrade at some point soon. https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/10/21/eurolife-deal-boosts-eurobanks-profitability-and-stability-says-moodys Eurobank’s decision to reacquire full ownership of Eurolife FFH Life Insurance has been described as a credit-positive development for the Greek lender, according to a Moody’s assessment. Moody’s observed that operational integration is expected to proceed smoothly, given that most of Eurolife’s employees are former Eurobank staff who share a common corporate culture and work ethic. The agency also pointed out that around 80 per cent of Eurolife’s business in recent years has come through Eurobank’s distribution networks, highlighting the natural alignment between the two entities. Eurobank’s management expects an increase of 100 basis points in the group’s return on tangible book value (RoTBV), which stood at 16.6 per cent in June 2025. The bank estimates an immediate negative impact of around 120 basis points on its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, reflecting goodwill from the acquisition. However, Eurobank plans to seek approval for the so-called Danish Compromise under Article 49 of the EU Capital Requirements Regulation, which, if granted by the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) next year, would mitigate the capital impact.

It looks like Seaspan has been able to avoid but the China and US tariffs so far. Fortunately, Fairfax is a Canadian company. https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155154/Seaspan-shifts-from-Hong-Kong-but-courts-Beijing-as-port-fee-tensions-escalate Seaspan chairman told a Shanghai forum the company’s US ownership is below 25%, exempting it from China’s port fees, while stressing its close ties with Chinese partners Remarks come after Seaspan relocated its headquarters and more than 100 vessel flags from Hong Kong to Singapore, amid the US port tariffs impact Moves underscore how shipping firms are walking a tightrope in the Beijing-Washington crossfire

It looks NBD has pulled out of the bidding for IDBI. That would explain their decision to buy a stake in RBL https://www.retailbankerinternational.com/news/emirates-nbd-to-quit-idbi-deal/ Emirates NBD has decided to quit the proposed acquisition of IDBI Bank and is expected to seek a majority stake in RBL Bank, reported The Hindu Businessline, citing sources. The Dubai-based financial institution offered $6bn to $7bn for a 61% stake in IDBI Bank in May this year, after talks with the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM). However, Emirates NBD is shifting its focus to RBL Bank, due to delays in the completion of the IDBI bank deal, said the publication.

They are still able to buy back shares during a blackout. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/intention-to-make-a-normal-course-issuer-bid-for-subordinate-voting-shares-and-preferred-shares-2025-09-26/ Fairfax also announces that it has entered into an automatic share purchase plan (the “ASPP”) with a designated broker to allow for the purchase of its Subordinate Voting Shares and each series of its Preferred Shares under the NCIB at times when Fairfax normally would not be active in the market due to applicable regulatory restrictions or internal trading black-out periods. Before the commencement of any particular internal trading black-out period, Fairfax may, but is not required to, instruct its designated broker to make purchases of Subordinate Voting Shares and/or Preferred Shares under the NCIB during the ensuing black-out period in accordance with the terms of the ASPP. Such purchases will be determined by the broker in its sole discretion based on parameters established by Fairfax prior to commencement of the applicable black-out period in accordance with the terms of the ASPP and applicable TSX rules.

Likely due to market softening. BRK is down 7% over past week, CHUBB down 6%. Also, a general lack of understanding of Fairfax earning during a softer market. Then you have the knee jerk reactions that come into play as well.

Travelers dropped 3% this morning after their Q3 report. Travelers mentioned a softening on Property and pulling back on some renewals due to pricing. All insurance/reinsurance are down today. The share buyback opportunity continues for Fairfax.

It is interesting to see how OMERS has been involved with Fairfax investments over the past 10 years. There was the initial Fairfax India IPO, Allied acquisition and the $1B share purchase in 2021. I am sure there are other involvements that I am missing. Fairfax must have a very good relationship with someone at OMERS.

ORLA jumped to a new high today (+17%) after a positive production update, along with the increase in the gold price.

During Q2 2021, Fairfax increased their position in Eurolife from 50% to 80% and commenced consolidated reporting of EuroLife. In the 2021 year end report Fairfax mentioned Shareholder equity of 450M Euro but I am not sure if we need to add dividends since then. It looks like we could have a 350M Euro ($450M US ) gain. I am sure we will hear from others on a more accurate number.

I wonder how much of an impact this would be be on Eurobank's ability to grow. Furthermore, Eurobank intends to apply for classification as a Financial Conglomerate (FICO) and to request the application of the supervisory mechanism of Article 49 of the CRR (commonly referred to as the Danish Compromise). If approved, it is expected to provide material capital relief.

Thanks for post this. Fairfax is still maintaining their 80% interest in EuroLife's P&C business, Eurobank is acquiring the Life Insurance business which would be the bulk of EuroLife. When I looked through the 2024 financial report I could not determine what book value was assigned to EuroLife. I wonder how this will impact earnings and book value when it closes in Q1. Below is from the Fairfax press release. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-sells-interest-in-eurolife-life-insurance-operations-to-eurobank-2025-10-13/ Prem Watsa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Fairfax, commented: “We are very pleased to be able to maintain the focus of our insurance operations on property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, while still benefitting from the continued success of the Eurolife life insurance business through our ownership stake in Eurobank. Eurolife’s life insurance business has done incredibly well under the leadership of Alexandros Sarrigeorgiou, and we expect that it will continue to perform very well under the ownership of Eurobank and its leader, Fokion Karavias.”

WS in Canada is now offering Fractional trading of actual Gold (not just ETFs). I haven't looked into the detail as the gold is stored somewhere in Canada. This would be for someone interested in holding Gold longer term, rather than just a short term trade.

Here are a couple quotes from Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 Conference Call transcripts regarding Asset and Liability matching. They is certainly not trying to match them up. "you're right that if interest rates are flat, premium is flat, more or less, the discount you put on the current year is more or less offset on the unwinding of the discount from the previous years. And then as if by chance, the bond maturity is very similar to the duration on our liabilities, that matches as well. When those relationships change, you're going to see movements." "And if you look at, you know, our liabilities, it's relatively close. We don't match on purpose, but where we sit today, our liability duration is close to our asset, our asset duration."

Thanks. I wonder what their thesis is for the short.

I don’t have access to this link but it looks like a hedge fund is shorting Metlen. https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/new-york-hedge-fund-takes-35m-bet-against-ftse-100-metals-firm-jkqzcbv9m

Gold is now at $3950, about to break through $4k. Angico and Newmont sold their stakes (combined 24.5%) in ORLA last month to individual investors, which created an initial drag on the stock price. Once they resolve the Camino Rojo Pit Wall issue, then we will see further upside to the stock price.

Northbridge and other Canadian insurers that are a part of Fairfax, have been upgraded by AM Best. https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspx?refnum=36562&altsrc=2

We need to keep in mind that they mainly only sold their very long 30 year bonds. It doesn't take much selling of the very long duration to impact the average duration. Now of course we could say that they should have bought more 3-5 duration treasuries in place of the long bonds. I think what we found out during Q2 was that duration was already short before Q2, outside of the 30 year. Another thing to keep in mind is that if there is a slow down in the economy, then there will be more opportunities on the Corporate bond side. We have already seen some good yields with KW and Vacatia, and Fairfax may be looking at others as well. The yields during Q2 increased slightly to 5.1%, so the shorter duration doesn't seem to be impacting income from bonds, likely due to the increase in corporate bonds.

Thanks @Viking for the Q3 Equity summary. While I hadn't done the calculations, I was expecting the Mark to Market to be relatively flat this Qtr due to the TRS loss. So nice to see the continued growth in this bucket. It will be interesting to see the earning from the bonds and insurance business this qtr. The CR may still be in the 93-94 range due to low claims. We may also see some additional long treasury sales from July, based on what Fairfax did in Q2.

Seaspan has signed for a couple more vessel builds with deliveries in 2027 and 2029. https://splash247.com/seaspan-seals-yangzijiang-newbuild-brace/ i also saw this TEU growth chart extending out to 2029 which I assume was based on the existing build plans at the end of Q2. I could easily see this approach 15% yearly revenue growth after accounting for lease renewal increases, which hopefully translates to dividend increases. Seaspan will be interesting to watch over the coming years. Fairfax has FV based on 7x PE which seems very low for the planned growth. https://www.seaspancorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Seaspan-Brochure-2025-September-2025.pdf

While this is a very small investment by AGT Foods, I wonder if we will see other investments by AGT in related vertical industries going forward. https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-wire-news-releases-pmn/chickapea-closes-4-25m-round-led-by-agt-foods-to-fuel-north-american-growth COLLINGWOOD, Ontario — Chickapea, the leading organic and high-protein pasta brand founded in Canada, today announced the successful closing of a $4.25 million CAD funding round. This significant investment will fuel the company’s continued expansion and meet growing demand across North America. Led by AGT Foods, one of the largest pulse and staple food ingredient suppliers in the world, the round also welcomed a new key investor, FCC Capital. As Farm Credit Canada’s investment arm, this partner brings extensive expertise across Canada’s good and agriculture sector. Existing partner InvestEco also participated, continuing its support for the brand since 2019. To further solidify the strategic partnership, Murad Al-Katib, President and CEO of AGT Foods, has joined Chickapea’s Board of Directors. Al-Katib is a globally recognized leader in the agri-food industry and was named EY’s World Entrepreneur of the Year in 2017. His expertise in building global, vertically-integrated supply chains will be invaluable as Chickapea scales.

Water temperatures seemed to have dropped over the past week, well below the temperatures at the end of September compared to the prior 2 years. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

The Keg is now listed as one of their brands on the LFG website. https://www.lfggrowth.com

It seems like there is always something brewing in the background at Fairfax. If I am reading this article correctly, it looks like Fairfax has spun out The Keg from Recipe, into its own company. Then Fairfax sold a significant equity stake in The Keg to LFG Growth Partners. https://www.biv.com/news/hospitality-marketing-tourism/cactus-club-co-founder-richard-jaffrays-firm-buys-into-the-keg-11272643 BIV earlier this week was also sent an internal email from Keg president Nick Dean that has been confirmed as authentic. "Effective today, The Keg will return to be a standalone company and will be spun out of Recipe Unlimited," Dean wrote on Sept. 16. "The Keg will remain part of Fairfax and will report directly into a newly established board of directors. Richard Jaffray and his company, LFG Growth Partners have acquired a significant equity position in The Keg. The new board will be led by Richard as our executive chairman, to whom I will report to moving forward." Jaffray did not respond to BIV's voicemail and text. He did provide a statement in an email saying, "The Keg is an iconic Canadian brand built over 50 years, and it has become a celebrated name while expanding its presence across Canada and the U.S. I’ve always admired The Keg and have been a longtime customer. I am very much looking forward to working with Nick Dean and the entire team at The Keg to build on its incredible legacy.”