Hoodlum

What I find interesting is when Fairfax sells minority interests, they just payout a dividend at prime+. Meanwhile, they provide debt to public companies at a reduced interest rate, but then have the option to convert that debt to shares at a later date for pre-determined price. Basically, Fairfax is willing to give up some short term gains on any debt they take, for a larger potential longer term gain in the business they issued the debt to. Meanwhile, ORLA was up 8% today on some positive news. Another ~$100M gain on Fairfax's stake in ORLA.

Does anyone have access to this article. I believe it mentioned Fairfax and Brit as a comparison, but would like to see the details that they discussed. https://www.insuranceinsider.com/article/2eva1nhemef30ufv9ibk0/all-topics/m-a/probitas-talent-outflow-underscores-takeover-challenges-for-aviva Frustration is growing around a promised independent operating model and staff reward. A significant mismatch in expectation around the operational model for Probitas post-Aviva takeover is contributing to staff outflows and dissatisfaction.

I remember asking my son about this a while back. His answer somewhat surprised me, but as an engineering student he may have a different psychology than most others. “To me, there’s something about seeing a “big” stock that makes it feel nicer to own a fraction of rather than diluting the price to compare with smaller companies. It feels more “premium” if that makes sense“

I came across this article on investments in Cyprus from India. It mentioned the recent investments of Eurobank, Thomas Cook India and LTIMindtree. It sounds like additional Indian companies are looking at setting up in Cyprus which should bode well for future growth at Eurobank. https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/india-turns-its-gaze-to-cyprus-as-gateway-to-europe-and-the-middle-east Two Indian corporate heavyweights, Thomas Cook India and LTIMindtree, have already set up shop on the island, marking the first wave of what looks to be a wider movement. Their presence is laying the groundwork for closer economic cooperation, with Cyprus positioned as a launchpad for Indian companies looking westward. According to exclusive information shared with Kathimerini, more than 20 large Indian companies are currently exploring the possibility of setting up operations in Cyprus. Discussions with local authorities are already at an advanced stage, suggesting a significant influx of Indian investment could be on the horizon.

Is Communication still an overweight category? With both Rogers and Bell stocks down 30+% over the past 12 months, I would be surprised. I do like your suggestion of a new conglomerates sector and could even enhance it with "Global Conglomerates". But I suspect this would be a heavier lift then just slipping Fairfax into an overweight Financials sector.

Maybe the market got confused and thought that Fairfax would also be buyers.

This announcement from Eurobank/Fairfax would seem like an obvious direction they would take, from my perspective. So I am a bit surprised that the market reacted like they did to this. I guess the market held back on buying more until then. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Eurobank officially confirms Fairfax's participation in the share buybacks. https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/en/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-28-05-2025 Fairfax, the largest shareholder of Eurobank Holdings, announces its intention to participate in the previously announced Eurobank Holdings share buyback programme of up to 367,673,632 shares of Eurobank Holdings, in order to maintain its total equity stake in Eurobank Holdings close to, but below, the regulatory threshold of 33% of Eurobank Holdings’ voting rights.

After the close on 6/13, based on the closing share price of 5/30.

I see that they don’t cover Intact Financial. I wonder how they determine which Canadian stocks to cover.

Intact is the next Financial ahead of us.

Credit ratings upgrade from AM Best. https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspx?refnum=36046&altsrc=2

Fairfax cannot go over 33.3% ownership of Eurobank. Their sale in February brought there ownership down to 32.89%, so they will need to start slowly selling once Eurobank has bought back ~1% of outstanding shares. Based on their currently buying that will take ~50 business days and hopefully it will be trading higher by then (end of July).

Thanks. A good summary of how Fairfax has transitioned their business since 2011.

Do you have a direct link to the video of their Investor Day. That link above didn't have it.

The Raymond James coverage peaked my interest as well. I noticed that they had a 2026YE target of $2600/share based on a 1.4x book multiple, which seems quite low. It looks like their book value estimates need to be updated as they are out of date. We will see them increase their target soon.

Do we know that WEF 3 will be used for this MEG acquisition. Strathcona also announced today the sale of their Montney assets for 2.8B, which I assume would cover the cash portion of the bid for MEG.

Strathcona has announced a $5.9B takeover offer for MEG Energy. This will dilute the shares that Fairfax currently owns but will be a much larger company combined. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/strathcona-resources-ltd-announces-intention-to-commence-take-over-bid-to-acquire-meg-energy-corp-302457435.html

The call options on the minority interests in Allied and Odyssey expire in 2026 and 2029, respectively. So there is no rush for Odyssey ($1B) and they could wait until next year (September) for Allied World (~$800M?). I think the other $400M in 2055 Notes would be used to close out additional TRS swaps by buying back those shares.

The first priority is the $500M in preferred shares coming due later this year. That will require all of the 2035 notes. The below was from the Q1 conference call. “We have about 500 million of preferred shares that are coming up at the end of the year… we’re going to look at that.”

Fairfax picked up another 25M shares of Foran Mining at $3/share. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/foran-announces-pricing-of-350m-non-brokered-private-placement-840129262.html

Blackrock is involved in another startup focused on AI driven reinsurance in the Middle East and Asia. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/ihc-blackrock-lunate-partner-for-1bn-abu-dhabi-ai-native-reinsurance-launch/ The new reinsurance company has been backed by an initial $1 billion of equity capital and will seek to underwrite $10 billion of liabilities. With a technology-first approach, IHC said the new reinsurance start-up will be an artificial intelligence native company (AI-native), with tech and software sitting at the core of the reinsurance platform, to enable the company to enhance its data and market analytics, as well as to optimise its capital efficiency. The company is being designed to match its underwriting capabilities with cutting-edge AI technologies, with a goal to become a key global player and also to accelerate development of markets in the Gulf region. The new reinsurance company has been backed by an initial $1 billion of equity capital and will seek to underwrite $10 billion of liabilities. With a technology-first approach, IHC said the new reinsurance start-up will be an artificial intelligence native company (AI-native), with tech and software sitting at the core of the reinsurance platform, to enable the company to enhance its data and market analytics, as well as to optimise its capital efficiency. The company is being designed to match its underwriting capabilities with cutting-edge AI technologies, with a goal to become a key global player and also to accelerate development of markets in the Gulf region.

It looks like Sleep Country is expanding to the UK. Maybe they want to become the global sleep expert. https://news.sky.com/story/mattress-brand-simba-beds-down-with-new-canadian-owner-13363197 Sky News has learnt that Simba Sleep, which is chaired by Asda boss Allan Leighton, has struck a deal to be taken over by a trade buyer, thought to be the privately owned group Sleep Country. An agreement about the transaction is understood to have been reached in recent weeks. Previously a listed company, Sleep Country is now owned by Fairfax Financial Holdings, and trades from hundreds of stores across Canada. One source said Simba's new owner would seek to grow its brand outside the UK. The deal with its new Canadian owner is said to comprise an up-front initial payment, with further payments to be made in the coming years depending upon the performance of the business.

Brett heard you and he takes exception to that. https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/264378/fairfax-earnings-california-wildfires-take-a-bite-but-investment-gains-are-an-offset.aspx The bottom line: We will maintain our CAD 1,540 fair value estimate for the no-moat company. We see shares as materially overvalued, and we think the market is extrapolating favorable market conditions too far into the future. In our view, P&C insurance is a highly competitive and inherently mean-reverting industry, and recent industry returns are unlikely to persist.

Yes, this got me to buy in a couple weeks later at $590cdn and it became by far my largest holding. Another back up the truck moment for me was the q3 2023 call where they announced they had significantly increased their treasury bond duration at the peak in October. This locked in their earnings for the next few years during a hard market where their peers could not do the same.