Hoodlum

I didn’t think LFG would have the funds for that. I guess we will find out what the terms were in the year end results, unless someone asks on the conference call tomorrow.

We will need to monitor this for the next couple QTRs to see if this trend continues. This would certainly be welcome news.

I should have been less firm in this statement. It was just a projection based on the initial TRS position that they closed by buying back the shares. It does make sense to do this over the next couple of years, with all of the cash they will have available.

Now that we know they plan on buying back the shares in the TRS position, I believe we will see this gradually get closed out as the market softens and Fairfax doesn't have any other placed to use the excess dividends from the subs.

Probably the same people selling over the past couple week, will buy back later at a higher price. I guess this is what makes a market. Some thing will never make sense to me.

They were buying as much as they could at <$2400. So unless there is a big jump tomorrow, the large buybacks will continue.

Here are the details of The Keg transaction. It doesn't mentioned what percentage LFG acquired and at what price. On August 13, 2025 the company, through a subsidiary holding company, completed the acquisition of all of the issued and outstanding units of The Keg Royalties Income Fund ("The Keg Fund") that it did not already own for cash consideration of Cdn$18.60 per unit or $150.1 (Cdn$206.5) and recorded the transaction as an asset purchase substantially comprised of the brand name and other intellectual property used in the operation of The Keg restaurants. Subsequently, on September 25, 2025 the company completed a re-organization whereby its subsidiary Keg Restaurants Ltd., which was held through Recipe, amalgamated with the acquirer of The Keg Fund and the amalgamated entity was renamed Keg Restaurants Ltd. ("The Keg"). The company then partnered with a strategic third party who assumed operational control of The Keg by subscribing for shares and entering into a shareholders agreement, resulting in the company deconsolidating the assets and liabilities of The Keg from its non-insurance companies reporting segment and recording its retained interest in The Keg as an investment in associate.

The gain on the EuroLife sale will be $250M in Q1. There is no specific mention on what the gain was for Praktiker. It looks like half of the 10yr+ bonds ($5B) have now fallen into the 3-5yr duration. It seems like Fairfax is placing new funds into the 1yr or less treasuries and allowing existing duration bonds run the course.

Adding in the 285k share purchased for cancellation in Q3, they bought back 392k share in past 4 months.

I must be missing something, but I am not seeing the Ki model playing out as we would have expected. Fortunately, they are a very small portion of our insurance subs.

That was a little bit higher than I expected, but not surprised. I don't see the details yet but it sounds like CR came under the 93.3 CR from the prior Q2, in order to get to $55.90 EPS.

Thanks @Viking for your details. I am thinking we get over $50 once the Praktiker gain (~$4/share) is included. I am also curious to see where the CR lands this QTR with the lack of the usual Cat from hurricane season. The Odyssey Re CEO mentioned they saw opportunities at the 7/1 renewal for the first time that was related to the Credit Rating increases over the past couple of years. I don't how if this can be quantified. I am also curious to see if they sold additional 30 year treasuries like they did during Q2. I was surprised when Fairfax initially bought the 30 year treasures as I thought of it as a Macro bet on interest rates dropping.

The below from the 2024 Fairfax Shareholders letter suggests their debt was expensive. "At the end of 2024, we had invested in $4.4 billion of first mortgage loans in the U.S. at an average yield of 7.8% and an average maturity of 1.7 years with two, one-year renewal rights, and in $440 million of first mortgage loans in the U.K. and Ireland at an average yield of 6.9% and an average maturity of 1.6 years."

Also, I suspect the timing of the sale of these share were in large part due to the Capital Gains tax increase that was announced to be coming a month later. Eventually this tax increase was cancelled. Without the coming tax increase I suspect Prem may not have sold those share then, but surely would have done so in the fall of last year at a higher book multiple.

Odyssey Re has created a new AI Business Solutions role that will looks for ways to use AI in the underwriting process. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/odysseyre-names-randhir-bilkhu-as-head-of-ai-business-solutions/ Odyssey Reinsurance Company, the property and casualty reinsurance arm of Odyssey Group Holdings, Inc., a subsidiary of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, has appointed Randhir Bilkhu as Head of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Business Solutions. In his new role, Bilkhu will report to the Chief Executive Officer of Reinurance. His remit is to identify and implement opportunities to utilise AI and technology to add value to the underwriting process.

Hopefully Fairfax sold their CLF shares when it peaked. CLF issued 75M new shares this week at $12.50.

While I was following the discussion back in 2003 on the MSN board, I was very much a newbie and didn't get in with that opportunity. I did time the 2009 Financial crash, loading up at C$250 and selling ~6 months later at $400.

I will eventually sell the additional shares purchased today. But that could be anywhere from 6-24 months out, depending on share price and other opportunities. Now that we are out of hurricane season and earnings keep growing, I will be patient for the share price to respond.

I bought additional shares today as I don't believe we will be close to this price in the coming months. I was not planning to add to my position, but this was an easy decision based on the Fairfax's current valuation and earnings for the next 2-3 years.

This does bring up a good point. Are the US$ bonds protected in any way from $US fluctuations? And are we required to have US$ bonds for the US insurance subs, or could the bonds be in other currencies as long as they meet the high quality requirements?

Moody’s has upgraded Fairfax and most of its insurance subs from Stable to Positive. That would suggest another ratings upgrade could be coming next year. https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/moodys-changes-fairfax-financial-outlook-to-positive-affirms-ratings-93CH-4305288?ampMode=1

The IDBI bank sale could get delayed. https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/rbl-bank-emirates-nbd-deal-may-delay-idbi-stake-sale-ndtv-profit-exclusive Sources told NDTV Profit that the process requires at least two serious, competing bids to move forward effectively. Both Emirates NBD and Fairfax were previously seen as the primary suitors for IDBI Bank and had even conducted the due diligence process. But with Emirates NBD now focusing on its announced $3 billion infusion for a majority stake in RBL Bank, Fairfax is left as the main competitive suitor. Other firms are in the fray, but they are few and far between. The likes of Oaktree Capital and Kotak Mahindra Bank have emerged as potential alternatives, but they have only shown 'sluggish interest' so far. This lack of a strong second bidder may serve as a real blow to the IDBI sale, casting doubt on DIPAM's goal to complete the privatisation within the 2026 fiscal year

Chubb’s CEO seems confident of continuing ROE growth over the medium term. "In sum, Chubb's fundamentals and our positioning are excellent, and our balance sheet, starting with our loss reserves, has never been stronger. I am confident we will maintain superior earnings growth, including double-digit growth in EPS, book and tangible book value, with core operating ROE increasing to 14% plus over the medium term, CATs and FX notwithstanding."

It would depend on the instructions given. They could have instructed their broker to buy as much as possible based on volume, once the price dropped below a certain threshold. "Such purchases will be determined by the broker in its sole discretion based on parameters established by Fairfax prior to commencement of the applicable black-out period in accordance with the terms of the ASPP and applicable TSX rules.

I looked at other reinsurance stocks in the US and they are either flat or down at most 5% in case of CHUBB over the past week. FFH is down 10% during the same past week. It is interesting that there seems to be more panic with FFH. The USD to CAD is off less than 0.2% during that time, so a non-factor. I said that I would not buy more FFH, but this is becoming tempting. I am sure Fairfax is buying as much as they can.