mcliu

For those of you that do a lot of financial modelling in Excel, is there a way to make sure certain fields don't change? For example, I maintain financial models for~20 companies, the format is pretty standardized and a lot of the metrics & calculations are the same, but the financials & projections are different. I'm finding that sometimes when I make edits, update the model for a new year, change projections, things sometimes get wonky and I need to check all the cells again. Is there a way to lock these? Is there a software for financial modelling that keeps track of assumptions & changes over time & allows for multiple cases?

Since Canadian companies are allowed to return contributed capital on a tax-free basis and capital gains are taxed at a preferable rate (vs dividends) due to a 50% inclusion rate, the deemed dividend rule (section 84) is meant to prevent companies from converting what are essentially dividends into capital gains or capital returns.

Hard to say what will happen. They exited 2009 with $370 BVPS. 12 years later.. $562 BVPS. Hopefully next 5 will be better.

re:Terry Smith's chart, hindsight bias

I think price matters because there are constraints in any ecosystem. How many multi-trillion dollar companies can grow at high 15% rates for decades before they takeover the world? 15% for 20 years = 16x. FAANGM market cap around $10T so if they compound at 15% for 20Y they'll be at 160T. Maybe less cause of buybacks & reduced share counts. But still a huge #. World GDP today is maybe $80T compound at 3% for 20Y = $140T

@Maxwave28 Hi Maxwave28, that is interesting. I think it may have to do with the shares that they've "repurchased" for share-based payment awards but have not "cancelled". From the 2020 Annual Report. So I think, given this, we need to deduct about 1.5 to 1.7 from the actual share count. Fairfax share count: 2015: 22.2 2016: 23.1 2017: 27.8 2018: 27.2 2019: 26.8 2020: 26.2 2021E: 25.7-1.6 (treasury shares) = 24.1

@Dave86ch Yeah that would be very helpful. Btw, out of curiosity, what kind of analysis do you use Python for? I've seen many people mention Python, so I'm wondering if it's be I should be learning.

Also signed up for premium today. Great app, hope you guys make it even better. I was debating between TIKR and Koyfin, but chose TIKR because it loads faster and is better for fundamental investing. Koyfin has a nice UI though. Btw, is an API on the roadmap (like simfin.com) so we can use it with other applications like Excel or Google Sheets?

Happy holidays!! Enjoy!

Thanks BG2000, thepupil, Gregmal! Appreciate the great tips & suggestions. For me, I'm just looking to diversify the equity portfolio, but it sounds like it'll take considerable study to have an edge. At this point, it might be best to buy a REIT index. Meanwhile, I will study FRPH & HHC (I think PSH has a big position in this.) to learn more about RE. Are there other smart RE investors/companies that you guys follow/study? Who would be the RE equivalents of BRK/MKL/CSU (long track record of making smart decisions & staying ahead of the pack)?

Thanks Bg2000! Good suggestions and lots of great leads I’ll start digging into. It does seem like there’s a lot of digging into individual properties or portfolios to invest successfully in this area, especially in private RE. Ideally I would love to just find a few good public owner-operators that I can just passively invest with for years.

Who do you think are the best long-term investor/value-creator/owner-operator companies in real estate? Which companies would you invest in for the next 15 years? I think David Simon (SPG) has a good track record despite facing e-commerce headwinds. Sam Zell? Brookfield? (They're more of an asset manager now.) Anyone else?

The future is difficult to predict. Isn't it better to hedge your bets probabilistically rather than go all in on one scenario?

It seems like a lot of retail banking can be automated.. Maybe the only reason there are still bank branches is to cater to legacy customers.. Capital markets/commercial banking would be harder to automate. A lot of custom solutions. I don't think your average "gas guy" can do these jobs.

RFP is in a highly cyclical commodity business. Stelco is in the same type of business, but they are slightly better positioned by having a cost-advantage. However, it's unclear how long that'll last. BB's technology faces numerous competitors and obsolescence risk. In the long-run, with large capital base, FFH needs to invest in the equivalent of BNSF & See's Candy to leverage their float instead of trying to hit occasional home runs. That said, shares are cheap & investments are doing well, so you can still make money in the short-run, but might not be a great long-term holding.

Imagine if they had bought msft or aapl instead of bb though.. I don’t think rfp, stelco, bb, recipe are businesses with a moat, which is what they should be buying at this size.

Thanks. Good suggestions.

Some of the cyclicals are minting money right now, but it won't last forever..

I think the simple explanation for the TRS is that, at the time, FFH shares were very attractive but the company needed to preserve capital given all the uncertainties in the market. The banks were likely be the counterparties to earn their fees and would have hedged out their positions by buying shares. I think the cash raise and SIB will also help cushion the stock price if they unwind the TRS.

They really need to monetize some of those mediocre cyclical assets that have gone up a lot and buy back more!

When calculating returns, is there an easy way to distinguish the value of "stock-picking" vs the value of allocating more to cash at the right times?

I think for "effectively outstanding", they deduct 799,230 of intercompany holdings of shares. And then the rest might be newly issued stock compensation.. Anyone can clarify?

There's a lot of paraphrased equity research. No real "insights". I think some CEO/HF manager interviews are good to watch just to get a sense of what they're like. Otherwise, not that helpful.

10% minority interest = $0.9B, implied valuation of Odyssey is >US$10B. FFH trades at only US$13B.

Which car has the most comfortable seats? We have the Lexus NX, it's nice and reliable but the finishing is not great like German cars, and the f-sport seat suck so bad.